South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 15/12/13 18z ------>

[Wynn D Woo]

If I never saw a wind storm again I couldn't be happier, my least favourite weather type! Mild is disappointing if its winter but still preferable to wind.

Of course really it should be cold and snowy, although I must live in one of the worst places in the country for snow.

[Rammie]

If I never saw a wind storm again I couldn't be happier, my least favourite weather type! 

Maybe you should re think your username?

[A.J]

very interesting post from Ian Fergusson in the model output discussion thread re. thursday afternoon/evening!  (see text below)

 

"More: shortwave running E across from West Country through S'rn-central England later Thurs afternoon into evening. Both UKMO-GM and Euro4 paint it; WBFL down to 400m by then. Being watched with great interest in next runs. It would bring snow down to the deck over just moderately high ground given progged PPN rates (Cotswolds; Marlborough Downs; Chilterns etc)... will advise as we see more on this in next high-res output. "

Edited December 17, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[Beast of Plympton]

The power of elevation eh?! The latest met office outlook might be of interest to you as well, if not anyone else in this regional!UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Dec 2013 to Tuesday 31 Dec 2013:It is likely to remain very unsettled through the Christmas period, with frequent spells of strong winds and rainfall. This will be interspersed with some brighter, showery weather at times. Severe gale force winds are possible, most likely in the north and west, although nowhere looks to be immune. Rain is also likely to be heavy at times, especially in the west, which will lead to a risk of some flooding. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above normal for December at first, but then trending a little colder, more especially later, when there looks to be an increasing risk of some snow in the north and on hills, whilst night frosts may become more common.This suggests snowfall to lower ground up north and snow on the hills in the south at times, which you may well benefit from

Indeed, a bit of elevation is key sometimes! That outlook looks promising.... Thanks for posting it! Made my night!

[Beast of Plympton]

Just looked at met office again, down for heavy snow now Thursday night! Could be a good day!

[Panayiotis]

Hello everyone! Dont normally post in this thread but there is a small feature which has popped up on the 18z NAE which may grap your attention!:

Notice the kink in the isobars to the south of Plymouth? It could be this which brings more snow than expected especially with -4/-5C uppers surrounding it! It tracks NE with it developing into a shortwave with snow likely on the northern/western flanks of the low... More runs needed though but its interesting!

Edited December 17, 2013 by Panayiotis

[festivalking]

Just looked at met office again, down for heavy snow now Thursday night! Could be a good day!

Just come from the mo thread and wandered if you would here. Yes your superior elevation is going to hold you in good standing. If not for work i would be walking up pork hill to leather tor to catch a flake or two. Sure you will keep us posted! Edited December 17, 2013 by festivalking

[Beast of Plympton]

Just come from the mo thread and wandered if you would here. Yes your superior elevation is going to hold you in good standing. If not for work i would be walking up pork hill to leather tor catch a flake or two. Sure you will keep us posted!

I will definitely keep you posted.... Looking promising, just hope it stays that way now!

[A.J]

As it's relevant to parts of our region, here's a re-post from the model output thread on my thoughts for thursday...

 

 

Just to add, the 18z GFS has also picked up on this shortwave trough...less pronounced than the hi-res NAE output, but the signal is still there, T850's are marginal, 500-1000hpa thickness is just about ok, 850hpa thickness's are the just scraping marginality, dewpoints and WB temps wrong side of marginal, but remember this is but one output so the key message is that the potential is there....As Ian posted, some elevation will be the key..

 

A few charts at T45 to illustrate...

 

1.png 2.png

 

3.png 4.png

 

5.png

[dec10snow]

Maybe even more interesting from Ian;

PS: watch for potential bolstering of snow signal in S for some on Thursday based on v latest output.... more to follow. Coldies: keep the faith ;-)

[Frosty_wsm]

I agree with rich here I'm afraid!Everyone has there own preferences in the weather, I personally love the wind as I think it is one of the most exciting things the weather can show apart from thunder and lightning.

Can't stand wind and rain personally, give me high pressure slap bang over the country, even if it meant grey laden skies day after day, I'd happily take that over wet and windy anyday. Edited December 18, 2013 by Smartie

[Somerset Squall]

Can't stand wind and rain personally, give me high pressure slap bang over the country, even if it meant grey laden skies day after day, I'd happily take that over wet and windy anyday

 

That's the opposite to me. I would like some crisp sunny days and frosty nights but I do not ever want grey, calm and BORING weather. I would much rather have the rain and wind. Before this unsettled spell the couple weeks of grey but dry weather we had was really doing my head in!

[Nights King]

Is that possible snow I see on the forecast for tomorrow afternoon...

 

If only you could bank the TV graphics its showing for 3pm Thursday!

Edited December 18, 2013 by mullender83

[Beast of Plympton]

Is that possible snow I see on the forecast for tomorrow afternoon...

 Yes indeed.... An interesting afternoon to be had at last!!

[Nights King]

 Yes indeed.... An interesting afternoon to be had at last!!

 

I just wish it could be 3 hours later like at 6pm so I'll be home with elevation to have a better chance of seeing it.

[Beast of Plympton]

I just wish it could be 3 hours later like at 6pm so I'll be home with elevation to have a better chance of seeing it.

Well hopefully it will turn out to be more than expected so you get home to a winter wonderland! Met office has me down from 6pm at the moment.... Edited December 18, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[Nights King]

Well hopefully it will turn out to be more than expected so you get home to a winter wonderland! Met office has me down from 6pm at the moment....

 

Its got sleet for 6am too but I'd ignore those forecasts as it is solely computer generated just nice to see.

 

Probably depends on timing and ppn intensity as to whether or not you see some real snow from any showers, maybe ian will have some news for us later.

[Frosty_wsm]

Is that possible snow I see on the forecast for tomorrow afternoon...

 

If only you could bank the TV graphics its showing for 3pm Thursday!

Sounds like a spin up the mendips might be in order for tomorrow afternoon

[SteveB]

Can't stand wind and rain personally, give me high pressure slap bang over the country, even if it meant grey laden skies day after day, I'd happily take that over wet and windy anyday.

 

Totally agree with this, wind is my least favourite type of weather.

[AWD]

I've heard there is a slither of an opportunity for some white stuff tomorrow night for a few of us. Best start getting more involved then now the stalemate Euro high is finally slipping away.

EURO4 model gives the moors of SW England a period of rather heavy snowfall tomorrow night;

Compared to the NAE, with any snowfall concentrated further north towards the Cotswolds;

Now we have access to the EURO4 model, it will be interesting to see how it performs against the NAE for short term forecasting.

[Mapantz]

The wind has already begun to pick up here, as it will do all afternoon, but the peak winds look to be between 6pm and 9pm across our area, probably easing by 10pm. Plenty of rain accompanying the gales though, not a great time to be on the roads, conditions will be horrid!

I'm looking forward to going for a walk in it though!

[MisterBeergut]

Sounds like a spin up the mendips might be in order for tomorrow afternoon

 

A spin up to Storey Arms might be more productive, looking at the forecast frames - except of course for the extortionate bridge toll.

[Beast of Plympton]

Its got sleet for 6am too but I'd ignore those forecasts as it is solely computer generated just nice to see.

 

Probably depends on timing and ppn intensity as to whether or not you see some real snow from any showers, maybe ian will have some news for us later.

 

Ok, good to know.... will be watching the lamppost tomorrow then!!

[AWD]

EURO4 model shows small accumulative snowfall projections for Exmoor, Dartmoor & The Mendips by Fri AM;

[Bristawl Si]

Now we have access to the EURO4 model, it will be interesting to see how it performs against the NAE for short term forecasting.

I thought Ian F said the other week that the Meto were ditching the NAE, so i guess it's best to take a lot more notice of the EURO4.

 

NAE was pants anyway last winter and before, if i remember rightly. In fact, i think the GFS was better at short range last winter.