Possible severe Atlantic storm Wednesday 18th December 2013 onwards

[Eero Hermann]

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=767341859947480&set=p.767341859947480&type=1&theater

[The PIT]

Well being sheltered from the south meant no storm here yesterday. Didn't expect the winds to be so light when they swung more westerly though. Fridays should provide more entertainment though. The weekend looks blustery with secondary lows providing more local windy spells.

[Coast]

Fridays should provide more entertainment though. 

 

Hmm, not sure about the wording, but it will be another round of wind and rain by the looks of it:

 

 

 

Less powerful over land than last night, but still affecting similar areas:

 

 

[Coast]

Looks like NI got a bad hit with an unfortunate fatality

 

Storms leave 7,000 without power

 

About 7,000 homes and businesses are without power after storm-force winds battered the country 

 

The ESB said network crews will be out restoring supplies, particularly in Donegal where 5,000 customers have no electricity. At the height of the storm overnight up to 25,000 customers were without power as strong winds, falling trees and debris damaged power lines. A weather warning remains in place for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo, where gusts will reach up to 110kph (68mph).

 

AA Roadwatch warned motorists to drive with care following heavy snow in parts of Sligo, Tipperary, Offaly and Laois. The promenade in Salthill also remains closed because of flooding. Yesterday, a 23-year-old woman died after a tree fell on her car in Mullingar, Co Westmeath. Kent Train Station in Cork city has reopened after a canopy covering two platforms was blown off in strong winds yesterday, injuring three customers.

 

The wild weather will continue to batter Ireland and the UK as thousands of people recover from flooding and power disruption to their homes brought on by heavy downpours and gale-force winds. Gusts of up to 145kph (90mph) are expected to cut across Northern Ireland and parts of western Scotland, while there are warnings of up to 20cm (8in) of snow in Scotland and icy roads across much of England. Storms caused by an Atlantic depression left 7,000 customers without electricity in Northern Ireland last night, though most have now been reconnected, with another 3,500 affected in north-west England and almost 900 in South Wales.

 

Northern Ireland Electricity (NIE) said last night that it expected further damage to the electricity network as bad weather is set to continue. Some 1,000 customers were without electricity as of 11pm because of trees down across power lines and broken electricity poles, though NIE expected the number to rise during the night. Spokeswoman Julia Carson said: "We were prepared for the storm and have already restored over 6,000 customers to power since the winds swept across Northern Ireland this afternoon. "However, we are expecting the winds to peak in the early hours of the morning, causing additional disruption to electricity supplies, especially in eastern and northern areas."

 

 

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/republic-of-ireland/storms-leave-7000-without-power-29852261.html

[nodrog]

Metfy's Christmas and 'Gales' forecast is out... metfy.info http://www.metfy.inf...--features.html

[ancientsolar]

Wales didn't get away with it either.. Power outages, trees down and flash flooding, ~ Looking at the position and intensity of the coming low pressures, there will be a lot more of this with it also being potentially being = or worse than the 3 storms we had through October-November. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-25444386

[Coast]

The Met Office said the storrm is moving to the north of the UK but winds are expected to be less strong and much of the country will have showers. The Environment Agency has issued flood warnings and said rivers in Somerset and Devon are liable to flooding.

 

Strong winds and floods are causing disruption to trains in the south of England, particularly on CrossCountry and South West Trains routes. Calum MacColl, a forecaster at the Met Office, said the weekend was expected to have some showers but to be fairly bright, particularly in the south. He said: "The start of the day will see cloudy weather in central and eastern parts of the country. It will be breezy but winds will not be on the scale we saw them on Wednesday. "It will feel rather chilly."

 

However some of the rain could cause travel chaos for the Christmas getaway this weekend. Arriva Trains Wales, CrossCountry, First Great Western, First Capital Connect and South West Trains were all reporting delays on Thursday morning, with Basingstoke particularly affected. Two South West Trains hit trees blown down by the gales on Wednesday evening in Devon and the New Forest, and drivers had to be rescued from their cars in Cornwall as floods engulfed the road. A mobile flood response unit has also been launched in the Isle of Wight, equipped with a digger, floodlights and 'gelbags', which are similar to sandbags.

 

More than 7,000 people in Northern Ireland were left without power last night, though most have now been reconnected, with another 3,500 affected in north-west England and almost 900 without power in south Wales. Coastguards and an RAF helicopter were last night searching for a a 45-year-old man, believed to be a foreign national, who fell overboard from a small cargo ship moored on the River Trent. The Maritime and Coastguard Agency said the man was working with ropes on the MV Sea Melody when he appeared to become entangled and was pulled over the side where he disappeared. A helicopter from RAF Leconfield in East Yorkshire began a search and was joined by a coastguard team from Hull, but the search was called off because of gale force winds, and cold, driving rain, the MCA said. Mike Puplett, Humber Coastguard watch manager, said: “We understand that the crewman was not wearing a life jacket and, in these conditions particularly, I would say this should have been an essential bare minimum of safety equipment." The search was expected to resume today.

 

The weather also caused Sheffield Wednesday’s match against Wigan, at Hillsborough Stadium, to be called off last night after puddles appeared on the playing surface. Stoke City’s match against Manchester United was also suspended.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10527194/UK-weather-Woman-dead-and-sailor-missing-as-storms-batter-UK.html

[knightrider]

Well after a brief spell of 35-40mph gusts at around 6 to 7pm last night the wind slowly started easing off, strangely enough it started dying die when the rain got heavier, now all eyes on the weekend and beyond into next week when I think more central and south-eastern areas could be more effected. Can anyone update me on some of the strongest gusts reported last night?  I heard something about 90mph recorded somewhere in the south west!

[Eero Hermann]

http://www.accuweather.com/es/weather-news/stormy-through-christmas-uk-an-1/21048136

[knightrider]

Thanks for the link Eero, quite a grim outlook on things that! I love how this thread is still called Possible severe Atlantic storm for yesterday lol :-P

[Mapantz]

A few stats from the Met Office:-

 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/12/19/updated-wind-and-rainfall-totals-for-18th-to-19th-december/

[knightrider]

A few stats from the Met Office:-

 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/12/19/updated-wind-and-rainfall-totals-for-18th-to-19th-december/

Can't say I'm too surprised to the Needles of the IOW top of the wind gust chart although considering they where only forecasting 60mph winds for the south with the 80mph+ winds further north and west it is slightly more surprising then usual perhaps, it always seems to be 1 of the windiest places though when storms are passing through I guess its because it's so exposed there and the channel produces a wind funnel effect.

[chapmanslade]

well I learn something every day, and it means what please? found it=ta Google LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN (LEWP) A wave-shaped bulge in a line of thunderstorms. It may often be seen as a "S"-shaped radar echo signature and is often associated with severe weather.>>> http://www.weather.com/glossary/l.html It is I suspect perhaps another over used and not really understood term for web sites?

I think you will find on the SW thread that Ian F posted the same thing as me at about the same time. Bit more than a squall line and is seen a few times a year in that form (extended length) in the UK. Edited December 19, 2013 by chapmanslade

[Coast]

Reports of hail in Devon and I forgot to add the ESTOFEX forecast earlier today:

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 19 Dec 2013 06:00 to Fri 20 Dec 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 18 Dec 2013 21:11

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

 

A mid-level ridge has developed over southern and eastern Europe in the wake of a cut-off low that weakens over southern Turkey. Given dry low-level air masses, potential of deep moist convection is limited except for the east Mediterranean Sea. Better moisture is located across western Europe ahead of an Atlantic trough that moves eastward on Thursday morning. The southern part of this trough will start to cut-off over the Iberian Peninsula, whereas the northern portions will travel across the North Sea.

 

Low moisture across the continent will limit the chance of any convection. Best potential is expected over the south-western Iberian Peninsula, where moist air masses from the Atlantic will be advected ahead of the cold front. The overlap of this moisture with increasing lapse rates and strong 0-1 km low-level vertical wind shear of 12 m/s onshore will be supportive for mesocyclones embedded in the cold frontal rain band. Therefore, a few tornadoes are not ruled out, but the overall chance seems to be too marginal for a risk level.

 

In the wake of the cold front, rather dry air masses are advected eastward. Deep moist convection is most likely over the warm sea waters in the range of vorticity maxima that travel north-east. Severe storms are not expected as the vertical wind shear remains rather weak.

 

 

[Eero Hermann]

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=767684069913259&set=gm.571243509629611&type=1&theater

 

WARNING! 12.19.2013 at 16:10 (Ireland), another orange alert level: Strong and Gusty south to southwest winds will Develop During the Friday, reaching speeds of Mean Between 65 and 80 km per hour, gusting up to 110 to 130 km per hour. Winds will be strongest at the Coasts. "

[Liam J]

This little feature needs watching later on Saturday. Vicious wind field.

 

Edited December 19, 2013 by Liam J

[Matty M]

This little feature needs watching later on Saturday. Vicious wind field.

 

52b36bfaec8d83434300009e.jpeg

52b36ba5ec8d83df0c0001e5.jpeg

Yes the typical type that can do a lot of damage to this area.

Reminds me of 1997 Stephen's Day Storm.

[rich1974]

This little feature needs watching later on Saturday. Vicious wind field.

 

52b36bfaec8d83434300009e.jpeg

52b36ba5ec8d83df0c0001e5.jpeg

So what does this mean (charts baffle me)? And what areas are we talking about this time....north again I bet.

[rich1974]

Interesting. If you view the 500mb geopotential height and jet profile charts from the GFS and compare the 12Z and 18Z outputs, you see the latter models a slight northward revision in height rises from the south which creates a slight bulge in the jet streak aloft where winds begin to suddenly exit and turn toward the pole.  The result: a substantially deeper low, with a steep pressure gradient on its southern flank. 

 

Output is a little sensitive in this context to give it too much notice, but worth keeping one eye on. 

Interesting, thanks for explaining that, so if this happens what will it mean? Higher wind speeds I'm guessing, but who'd have the worse of it? North or South?

[R.P. McMurphy]

Interesting, thanks for explaining that, so if this happens what will it mean? Higher wind speeds I'm guessing, but who'd have the worse of it? North or South?

North,

[Liam J]

So what does this mean (charts baffle me)? And what areas are we talking about this time....north again I bet.

 

A rapidly deepening secondary area of low pressure or a wave if you like, interacting with a powerful left exit region of the jet stream. Those charts would produce severe gales to storm force winds with gusts over 80mph through the Irish Sea and into N England.

 

It's these kind of features that can turn up at short notice given the very volatile set up we are currently in. It may look different on the next run. Lets see... Lots and lots of potential in the coming 5 days!

Edited December 19, 2013 by Liam J

[rich1974]

North,

That's what I expected!! Cheers!!!

[rich1974]

A rapidly deepening secondary area of low pressure or a wave if you like, interacting with a powerful left exit region of the jet stream. Those charts would produce severe gales to storm force winds with gusts over 80mph through the Irish Sea and into N England.

 

It's these kind of features that can turn up at short notice given the very volatile set up we are currently in. It may look different on the next run. Lets see... Lots and lots of potential in the coming 5 days!

You're right there, I know a lot of people aren't into this weather and seem only into SNOW, SNOW, And more Snow, but I for one really enjoy it, I love popping on the forum a few times a day to read all the post, i knida gives me a buzz and something to look forward to, just a shame most of the strong winds have been up North, maybe we could have some a bit further South next Santa, oh please.

[Liam J]

None of the ensembles really support such a steep pressure gradient like the op run.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=48

 

EDIT: The 18z ensembles aren't complete yet! 

 

Control run nothing like as severe -http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

Edited December 19, 2013 by Liam J

[The PIT]

Today's storm still on SW winds into the mid sixties so we'll notice. Tomorrow evening for Northern England Midlands and North Wales a even windier period with winds into the 70's look set to sweep across these areas.