Possible severe Atlantic storm Wednesday 18th December 2013 onwards

[knightrider]

now ones saying that only going by reports, sorry if I offended ..

They did report a sting jet on the news I remember, and they said that was the most common comparison to the 1987 storm all be it far less powerful.

[rich1974]

now ones saying that only going by reports, sorry if I offended ..

Hey that's ok!!

[rich1974]

Your not stupid lol, yes there was a sting jet as St'Jude moved out into the north-sea which is what caused that powerful squally spell around 6:30 to 7am

 

Gusts near Essex and Kent coasts might have been in the region of 80mph but inland they never got much above 70mph, generally speaking they where more like 55-60mph. My local weather stations (there's 2 in my estate) recorded 53 and 49mph but even that was still enough to bring down quite a number of trees down in my local village mostly small trees mind.

Thanks for the write up, it now gives me some idea as to what one might expect from these storms as they run in, very interesting, and yes you're right it was around the 6am/7am time.

[JK1]

what winds would I expect for my area if the ecm was to verify?

[rich1974]

They did report a sting jet on the news I remember, and they said that was the most common comparison to the 1987 storm all be it far less powerful.

I think that's where I heard it, I them put that and the 20 minutes of really strong winds together and thought it was that so called sting jet they mentioned.

[rich1974]

what winds would I expect for my area if the ecm was to verify?

There are some charts someone posted showing maps and speeds, I haven't a clue where to find them though other than scrolling through everyones posts.

[knightrider]

Thanks for the write up, it now gives me some idea as to what one might expect from these storms as they run in, very interesting, and yes you're right it was around the 6am/7am time.

I'd suggest that considering both MetO and BBC forecasts are suggesting 40 to 60mph inland gusts that tomorrow evening/night's winds will be quite similar to St'Jude maybe slightly less but maybe lasting longer a few hours rather then about half an hour lol. The forecasts leading up to St'Jude weren't helped by the ramping within the media/press and I almost felt like that even the BBC weather forecasters where feeding off their information more then their own considering they where suggesting widespread gusts of 80mph+ when in actual fact inland models where suggesting in the region of 50mph which for most is all we got, it was worse along the south coast for awhile where mean speeds of 60mph where reported with gusts of 85-90mph. But had the winds inland been in access of 80mph that would have made it much more comparable with 1987 certainly 1 of the biggest storms in southern England since it (probably on a par with the October 2000 and 02 storms) but as it was it was some way off being that bad.

[Matty M]

GFS 18z not for changing!

 

Surely could not be that wrong at T18hrs!?

 

Crazy difference between the models tonight, GFS keeps most of the strong winds offshore.

 

Yet NAE/UKM/JMA/ECMWF would bring severe winds to land in NI and Scotland.

Edited December 17, 2013 by Matty M

[Mokidugway]

Yep gfs not budging, soon be down to nowcasting ...

[Matty M]

NAE has it slightly further south, totally at odds with the GFS

 

A swathe of sustained 70mph just off the Mayo coastline.

 

[knightrider]

NAE has it slightly further south, totally at odds with the GFS

 

A swathe of sustained 70mph just off the Mayo coastline.

 

Jeez!   Hurricane Betsy eat your heart out lol

[wimblettben]

That St Judes storm we had last month or when ever had what they call a sting jet, I remember the time it must have passed my home, it only lasted 20 minutes but it was really bad, what wind speeds would they have been as the sting jet past over? That might give me a better understanding of how bad things might get.

There was a squall which brought the strongest gusts for a few minutes at around 6:00am which brought a few 50mph gusts and one 58mph gust on our house roof.

[ZONE 51]

NAE-Upper temps and dewpoints:

^^last one GFS

To show you the warmer sector over SW. Certainly going to be some very active precipitation and convective squalls.

(LOOK AT FAX TO SEE THE FRONTS HERE)

[knightrider]

There was a squall which brought the strongest gusts for a few minutes at around 6:00am which brought a few 50mph gusts and one 58mph gust on our house roof.

The strongest inland gust for my region which I saw reported on TV was 69mph at Heathrow airport. Looking ahead to Friday/Saturday's storm whilst some models haven't changed their wind predictions the Atlantic pressure charts seem to suggest that the centre of the low will pass a lot further north meaning the strongest winds will mostly be out at sea north of Scotland and maybe even over Greenland etc... the majority of the UK could miss the next 1 altogether at least it's main effects anyway, it's trailing weather fronts mean it'll probably still be quite blustery though and there'll be a rash of showers!

[Zenarcher]

Not often do you see the models disagree so much on the track of a low in such a short timeframe.

 

18z runs

 

GFS Keeps it more North like before and gives strong mean wind speeds around 50 to 60mph for Western Ireland and Scotland.

 

NAE Sends it slightly more South and affects the same area's as the GFS but Northern Ireland gets much higher wind speeds.

 

NAVGEM Tracks the low through Southern Scotland giving high winds for Northern Ireland, Southern Scotland and Northern England.

 

The differences between the GFS and NAVGEM at 36 hours is amazing and have never seen anything like it look at the differences,

 

 

[knightrider]

Not often do you see the models disagree so much on the track of a low in such a short timeframe.

 

18z runs

 

GFS Keeps it more North like before and gives strong mean wind speeds around 50 to 60mph for Western Ireland and Scotland.

 

NAE Sends it slightly more South and affects the same area's as the GFS but Northern Ireland gets much higher wind speeds.

 

NAVGEM Tracks the low through Southern Scotland giving high winds for Northern Ireland, Southern Scotland and Northern England.

 

The differences between the GFS and NAVGEM at 36 hours is amazing and have never seen anything like it look at the differences,

 

gfs-0-36.png

 

nav.png

Looks like a beauty!

[derryweather]

Malin Head Donegal had has a gust of 65mph/105kmph in the last hour. Impressive!

[Richie V]

Well, im already 3 mb lower than gfs says for barnsley at 00:00!

[Snowshine]

Im still waiting for a day similar to October 27th 2002, when winds substained 47mph here, and gusts reached beyond 65mph.

[ZONE 51]

http://www.sailflow.com/ - enjoy exploring this one - - bookmarked!!

 

Click on map where you want to view - also has data for forecasting

 

(when map comes on you want there is wind arrows, zoom in by mouse/other and can click on an arrow and a graph comes up-click more details for bigger image, get some good data with graph of wind history)

 

Here is an example:

Edited December 18, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[SteveCoops]

http://www.sailflow.com/ - enjoy exploring this one - - bookmarked!! Click on map where you want to view - also has data for forecasting

Nice mobile app too!

[ZONE 51]

Nice mobile app too!

Yeah! and this one here although used before this is good - http://www.oceanweather.com/data/

-

And this one - http://www.windfinder.com/weather-maps/forecast#5/54.317/-2.351 - that's all the links for now

Edited December 18, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Winter Storm Wednesday (today) affecting all areas, lasting into Thursday early hours for far north

 

Torrential rainfall and floods, damaging winds, and a snow risk for north - 

Gales picking up through the day especially on Western and Southern coasts, and moving inland through the day especially evening time, and by early evening (possibly afternoon) severe and potentially damaging storm force winds/gusts of up to 80mph hitting West of Ireland (and possibly the southwest of Ireland too) the coastal areas really getting a hard pounding from the wind and waves, the severe gales/storm force winds sweeping into northern Ireland, and later in afternoon into evening gales picking up to severe gales into the southwest and southern England coastal, and West Wales hitting 60-70mph, inland gusts up to 55mph.  severe gales through channel starting in the West Channel moving east through the evening , severe gales up the Irish sea, to the north channel, and gales affecting East coast could become severe later in the evening but these are mostly indicated to affect over the North-sea. Gales likely to affect England and Wales through the evening.

 

Evening / late evening storm force winds battering West Scotland possibly damaging winds, and high waves causing problems here. into the evening and into the night period the storm moving over Scotland with the winds affecting west and north of Scotland the most severe, these winds hitting Shetland/northern Isles too.

 

Have done a map to show areas indicated most at risk.

 

Everywhere is at risk from gales or severe gales through today and tonight

 

 

I'm going to put the rainfall charts in the" Heavy rain watch part II" thread you can find in this section. Such a busy week of weather and so much to put in forecast but have to draw a line somewhere!! 

 

ESS

Edited December 18, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

Morning all.

 

Lets start with ESTOFEX:

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 18 Dec 2013 06:00 to Thu 19 Dec 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 17 Dec 2013 21:22

Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

 

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

 

Most of Europe will remain under dry and stable conditions, two exceptions being the southern coastline of Turkey and then the western coastline of the British Isles. Pronounced trough along with the deep low (minimum pressure under 950 hPa) will affect especially Ireland / Northern Ireland and Scotland in the evening to night hours. Both ECMWF and GFS simulate marginal latent instability under cold mid-tropospheric airmass, yielding possibility of low-topped thunderstorms behind the main frontal zone. 20-25 m/s of 850 hPa is simulated behind the front (apart from the immediate south of the low with simulated "sting-jet" feature). Although convective donwdrafts might enhance downward mixing of momentum, it is likely that DMC will exist only in the form of scattered cells rather than forward propagating strongly forced MCS. Therefore, we refrain from issuing a Level for this situation attm.

 

A simulated sting jet? 

 

[Coast]

Here comes the start of the conveyor: