The GFS count-down to Christmas

[Cloud 10]

Only 5 days to go now...120 hrs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not much change from yesterday's update on this evening's GFS  12z with a cold

unsettled Christmas day.

 

High ground in Scotland looks to have the best chance of a white christmas this year,although

watch out for some of those showers around Southern and Western coasts as they will

likely contain hail and thunder.

 

 

Festive Fun Factor = 6/10

[Tamara]

Only 5 days to go now...120 hrs.

 

gfs-0-120.png  ukmaxtemp.png

 

ukprec.png  uksnowrisk.png

 

 

Not much change from yesterday's update on this evening's GFS  12z with a cold

unsettled Christmas day.

 

High ground in Scotland looks to have the best chance of a white christmas this year,although

watch out for some of those showers around Southern and Western coasts as they will

likely contain hail and thunder.

 

 

Festive Fun Factor = 6/10

 

I think in the circumstances of the overall pattern then many would take that - a chance of snow falling to lower levels in the heavier showers perhaps. Most especially though further north of course, and so not bad for you at your elevation

[Cloud 10]

I think in the circumstances of the overall pattern then many would take that - a chance of snow falling to lower levels in the heavier showers perhaps. Most especially though further north of course, and so not bad for you at your elevation

 

Yes maybe a chance IMBY,and maybe some surprises for other parts of the UK with heights and thicknesses 

being so low.

 

At least we have a ticket for the lottery. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Very similar to Xmas '99, with low thicknesses, gave a wet snow shower on Xmas Day in '99

[Tamara]

Yes maybe a chance IMBY,and maybe some surprises for other parts of the UK with heights and thicknesses 

being so low.

 

At least we have a ticket for the lottery. 

As long as you win a big prize and share it amongst us all

Edited December 20, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Cloud 10]

Very similar to Xmas '99, with low thicknesses, gave a wet snow shower on Xmas Day in '99

 

Yes,looks to be very similar to the charts we are seeing at the moment.

 

 

As long as you win a big prize and share it amongst us all

 

[Cloud 10]

Only 4 days to go now...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today's 12z GFS charts for Christmas day looking consistent with yesterday's with a 

generally cold and unsettled day in prospect,with some heavy showers more especially around 

Western and Southern coasts.

 

Best chances for some of the white stuff look to be for high ground in Scotland and 

North-West England.

 

 

Festive Fun Factor = 7/10

[Tamara]

If I had the means to get there this year, then I would spend Christmas with my relatives in North Yorkshire up on the moors, some few possible flakes of wintriness would just be a bonus, even without much accumulating if at all for long. Used to travel to visit High Force in Teesdale for hiking weekends whilst staying with family up north and when 'Southern winters' barely held a flake in zonal patterns like this.  One winter back in the 90's it was the only snow I saw, whilst up there, the whole season !

[Cloud 10]

3 days to go...72hrs...

 

 

 

 

GFS still showing a cold unsettled christmas day across the UK,although most

of the shower activity looks to be close to the coasts.

 

Best chance of a white christmas remains over parts of Scotland and high ground in Wales

and North-West England.

 

 

Probably more chance of hail and lightning than snow though!

 

 

 

Festive Fun Factor = 6/10

[Cloud 10]

Only 2 days till santa time...

 

 

 

 

 

 

A cold and unsettled looking chart for Christmas day from this evening's GFS with 

a deep low pressure situated just North of the UK giving gales over Scotland and 

very festive scenes for the Highlands.

 

Looks mostly dry and chilly for inland areas of the rest of the UK,but look out for some 

potent showers around Southern and Western coasts which will likely give some

hail and thunder at times.

 

 

Festive Fun Factor = 6/10........10/10 if you live in the highlands!

[Cloud 10]

The big day tomorrow...

 

 

 

 

 

The GFS showing a cold Christmas day across the UK tomorrow with a slight frost

in places in the morning,with afternoon temperatures generally in the range

of between 3 and 6 degrees celcius.

 

A lot of dry weather and winter sunshine around for many inland areas,but there

will be heavy showers around Western and Southern coasts where hail and 

thunder are likely,and also showers packing into Western Scotland where they will fall as snow

on high ground,blown on by a gale force wind.

 

 

Festive Fun Factor = 6/10

 

May I take this opportunity to wish everyone a Merry Christmas.

[4wd]

That's not wot The daily Express said, I feel so cheated  
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/449815/Snow-warning-Winter-2013-will-see-a-White-Christmas-across-UK-says-shock-weather-forecast

Mind I did wonder where they got the idea it would be the first white Christmas in decades.
And the relevance of including library shots of snowploughs and sledging (again)

Edited December 24, 2013 by 4wd

[Zenarcher]

Final chart today at 0 hours,

 

 

Thanks Cloud 10 for the updates its been interesting to see how much changes occur especially in FI.

[Timmytour]

364 days to goBased on how I would project what the models  are currently showing twelve months forward from today, it looks very much as if the cold snowy conditions that set in on 18th December 2014 will persist through Christmas and into the New Year:)

[Cloud 10]

364 days to go

Based on how I would project what the models  are currently showing twelve months forward from today, it looks very much as if the cold snowy conditions that set in on 18th December 2014 will persist through Christmas and into the New Year

 

Feel free to start another thread when the first CFS chart for christmas day comes out at the end of March. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

364 days to go

Based on how I would project what the models  are currently showing twelve months forward from today, it looks very much as if the cold snowy conditions that set in on 18th December 2014 will persist through Christmas and into the New Year

 

My predictions, Atlantic dominated, flooding in places, low after low for Xmas 2014!