Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[rich1974]

Total cr*p sums today up.

 

We are very close to writing December off with one of the most +AO months ever.

 

I don't recall one winter forecast close to this anomaly!- above average rain & a very big +VE temp anomaly.

 

S

Great isn't it....can't stand that white stuff, looks good on Christmas cards but it's a bloody pain if you need to get somewhere in a hurry.

[SMU]

as opposed to floody & soggy ground & 70MPH gusty wins with Muggy air.

 

I will take the snow.

 

S

[rich1974]

Bring on the winds!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

rich1974 straight on ignore list!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

do not think models looking too bad, surely some cold fresh days between now and mid Jan, cannot expect snow for another month at least, every year after mid Jan really for snow

[nick sussex]

Talking of the AO and looking back till 1950 the Nov and Dec period look like being the two highest together since these records go back. On a positive note the Nov/Dec positive combo are normally followed by at least one winter month with a negative AO, the infamous 88/89 winter had a negative Nov AO and then it went downhill from there.

 

To replicate the horror of that winter means the UK would have to do something not seen in the last 60 years so perhaps a straw to clutch!

[Mapantz]

* Walks straight out of the weather preference thread..

[Joe Levy]

Bring on the winds!!

Extreme weather isn't good for anyone. I am hoping for an average winter with a little bit of everything but not too much so that noone gets hurt! Back to the model discussion anyway... like many other people I am hoping that the ECM isn't correct and that the UKMO is closer to the mark, but with such a changeable pattern that is prone to creating lows from that extreme temperature gradient off the Eastern Seaboard, who knows what will happen!

[Mr Frost]

Total cr*p sums today up.We are very close to writing December off with one of the most +AO months ever.I don't recall one winter forecast close to this anomaly!- above average rain & a very big +VE temp anomaly.S

Thought I had entered the moaning thread after reading the first few pages of this thread...Feel a bit sorry for folk who have not seen any weather this month. Fantastic December here so far - Severe gales, snow, fog, frost, thunderstorm, temperature of 14 degrees...and more excitement over the next few days - Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:Much colder with gales and snow showers on Thursday. Heavy rain later Friday. Brighter with showers on Saturday frequent in west. Gales, perhaps severe at times.Issued at: 1600 on Tue 17 Dec 2013

Edited December 17, 2013 by Mr Frost

[Purga]

Total cr*p sums today up.

 

We are very close to writing December off with one of the most +AO months ever.

 

I don't recall one winter forecast close to this anomaly!- above average rain & a very big +VE temp anomaly.

 

S

Absolutely, always looked like a total write off for cold and not a credible hint of a change to anything decent right out to Jan 2014

 

This is the best I could find and it only lasts a blink

Edited December 17, 2013 by Purga

[mulzy]

Things must be bad, I can't even find one cold and snowy chart from the CFS!

 

PS - that may actually be a good thing!

Edited December 17, 2013 by mulzy

[legritter]

Certainly looking very stormy right out till just after the Christmas period ,with some very large rainfall totals and some wintriness chucked into the mix on todays models .It will always be a hard time getting deep cold into our Neck of the woods but when you take the millions of times and probably more that perfect Synoptics have set up shop in this part of the Northern Hemisphere its only a matter of time untill we get lucky again .Looking out past  10 Days we will nearly always have the models showing a possible pressure change as past this range is a long time in Meteorology .My Big Straw at the moment is perhaps the very strong Vortex and a winter so far dominated by high pressure over parts of europe could swing the other way over the coming 10 weeks of winter .ok we dont have deep cold but if you like action weather get out the STellas and sit down relax and i dont think you will be disappointed .

[IDO]

I went on the CFS (9 month) to see when the PV leaves Greenland:

 

 

T-2058. I am counting the hours...

 

To be honest I loved the CFS last year, looking through those great wintry charts, of course knowing it was for fun. This last few weeks they have been terrible, not a decent cold snap, let alone a spell of wintry nirvana. As trend setting goes I do have worries about this winter. But it was always, according to the excellent strat forecasters on here, going to be a late one, so patience, just hope its not too late.

[Southender]

With a +AO, strong PV and zero sign of HLB. I think it's time to put the model watching on hold till after Xmas. Very grim for coldies.

[Plymouthsnow]

Wet and windy is what is on the cards. Cold at times but mild at other times.

[ANYWEATHER]

Total cr*p sums today up.

 

We are very close to writing December off with one of the most +AO months ever.

 

I don't recall one winter forecast close to this anomaly!- above average rain & a very big +VE temp anomaly.

 

S

I should not worry too much about the model output at the moment! Very early days to Winter as you know, be thankful we have not got a Bartlett situation with high pressure parked over central Europe! Anyway, a lot of interesting weather to come and at least it wont be horribly mild.......   If anything this is a normal default pattern for this time of year, if youre casting youre thoughts back to the record cold of November and December 2012, now then that's unusual.   

Edited December 17, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[Mr Frost]

3 years ago today we had this...

Let's all pretend it is 2010 again...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

December is rarely the most wintry month, and indeed even in the great 80s there were plenty of average/mild Atlantic dominated Decembers.  I'm not at all worried about what is happening.  A change will come, but not in 2013.

 

 

December 22nd 1985.....

 

 

 

Feb 1st 1986....

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited December 17, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Purga]

With a +AO, strong PV and zero sign of HLB. I think it's time to put the model watching on hold till after Xmas 2014. Very grim for coldies.

Tided.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

December is rarely the most wintry month, and indeed even in the great 80s there were plenty of average/mild Atlantic dominated Decembers.  I'm not at all worried about what is happening.  A change will come, but not in 2013.

 

 

December 22nd 1985.....

 

 

 

Feb 1st 1986....

 

 

 

BFTP

 

Yeah, this is a normal Dec, most westerly month of the year, most autumnal month, should see winter from i guess around 20th Jan, on and off until Easter 20th April

[Coopsy]

Need help? In the United Kingdom, call 08457 90 90 90 Samaritans

 

Thats for the likes of Steve Murr and followers who have had just the cr@piest day.

 

To avoid disappointment I cover my eyes with bakewell tarts and pretend I have the devil in me. But that's because I live in Canada and get too much snow.

Edited December 17, 2013 by canadiancoops

[UV-RAY]

Thought I had entered the moaning thread after reading the first few pages of this thread...Feel a bit sorry for folk who have not seen any weather this month. Fantastic December here so far - Severe gales, snow, fog, frost, thunderstorm, temperature of 14 degrees...and more excitement over the next few days - Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:Much colder with gales and snow showers on Thursday. Heavy rain later Friday. Brighter with showers on Saturday frequent in west. Gales, perhaps severe at times.Issued at: 1600 on Tue 17 Dec 2013

Indeed, I've seen nearly as much snow this month as I have since December 2010. The outlook is looking quite good for those in the North with plenty of exciting weather in the next two weeks on offer.

[cooling climate]

It is a shame, we wait patiently for what can be many posters favorite season

and we get delt this. I think realistically we are looking at around the 10-15th

of January onwards before we see anything more than the odd cold snap.

 

Is there a Christmas skin this year. Cheers.

[Fred Sykes]

Bahhhh humbug

[trickydicky]

Indeed, I've seen nearly as much snow this month as I have since December 2010. The outlook is looking quite good for those in the North with plenty of exciting weather in the next two weeks on offer.

Where?! I live just outside the Ribble Valley and haven't seen a single flake, or a temperature that might suggest some were nearby.

 

The models are horrific, but can change quickly. I recall posts similar to those tonight at the beginning of last January triumphantly/despondently predicting mild temperatures right through to June. Then what happened? Well, it snowed, lots and lots in some places, right up until about June! 

[Duane S.]

I don't think I have ever been this sure of being able to write off half a month in advance ! But it is truly difficult to see where any meaningful cold weather for December is going to come from (Usual caveat applies to those in Scotland and Northern hills and those even further south for more transient episodes).The problem is during more recent winters we have been used to 'cold appearing out of nowhere' (not true of course as the atmosphere as just been more pre-disposed to it but that's how it can appear on the charts sometimes when the models themselves latch on late). However, with the  current NH profile I don't see how it would take less than 2 weeks from where we are now to bring about the start of a proper cold spell. And by '2 weeks' I fear that would be the absolute best case scenario as well.Hopefully my pessimism is unfounded and I'd so love to be wrong but with no real artillary being fired at the vortex right now, nor none in the offing, it really is difficult to see how it is not going to rule the roost for a while yet to come.One straw to clutch was following on from a post I made on the other thread, there was the odd member in deep FI bring in colder 850s to the south than of late, it also trended to lower pressure on the continent and higher pressure around Iceland. Of course taken on its own and at face value that means zilch, it only starts getting interesting when the general trend continues across the course of a few days. Even then of course it could disappear without a trace if it has picked up an incorrect signal!Hopefully that will end up being the most cheerless post I ever make on this forum!

Edited December 17, 2013 by s4lancia