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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


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It appears that any cold snap, one that has consistently shown up on many runs over the last 3-4 days, has been cancelled...because a run this morning said so.

But it was consistently shown up on many runs at 9/10 days out then kept getting pushed back, obviously if it is going to happen it needs to get closer to the reliable time frame to even start to believe it is going to happen but it never got any closer.

 

As one very good poster pointed out yesterday the models are having a difficult time past day 5 at the minute and to expect anything  at day 9 to verify is just hopecasting.

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It appears that any cold snap, one that has consistently shown up on many runs over the last 3-4 days, has been cancelled...because a run this morning said so.

 

Unfortunately when you see a huge swing, as shown by the ecm ensembles, followed by 'tweaks' from the other models... you have to take notice. I try and given an honest assessment. Sure it may be a blip, but seeing the latest GFS output, I think a new trend towards zonality, with cooler incursions may be the new seed. We'll see. I tried to stay away from using the term 'cold spell'.... as I wasn't sure it would develop like that. I think this weeks mild conditions will be replaced with cooler air tho, as is still shown by all the models, ops and ens.

Edited by draztik
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But it was consistently shown up on many runs at 9/10 days out then kept getting pushed back, obviously if it is going to happen it needs to get closer to the reliable time frame to even start to believe it is going to happen but it never got any closer.

 

As one very good poster pointed out yesterday the models are having a difficult time past day 5 at the minute and to expect anything  at day 9 to verify is just hopecasting.

 

The MET are very keen on a cooler unsettled end to March and have been for a good few days now, maybe they are hope-casting to...? I doubt it. The models we have access to are still playing/toying with the idea.

 

It's all about timing and trends im afraid, not one run, And the over-ruling trend is that of cooler unsettled conditions to take over by last 1/4 of March. A typical March affair is what i expect.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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The MET are very keen on a cooler unsettled end to March and have been for a good few days now, maybe they are hope-casting to...? I doubt it. The models we have access to are still playing/toying with the idea.

 

It's all about timing and trends im afraid, not one run, And the over-ruling trend is that of cooler unsettled conditions to take over by last 1/4 of March. A typical March affair is what i expect.

Firstly, the post I quoted said cold snap, I know very well the MET are saying cooler unsettled and they will probably be right, the hopecasters as I call them are the people who post 1 chart at 9/10 days out and say things like widespread snow and -10 uppers and think they are "nailed on" as one potser said.

 

I am a realist and obviously don't expect it to stay like it is now for months on end. A typical March affair is what i expect as well.

Edited by CongletonHeat
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I thought it was supposed to be clear??? constant low cloud rubbish

 

Depends where you are today parts of the south have a lot of cloud whilst the further north you head the brighter it is

 

Posted Image

 

The problem is the winds are so light so where you have cloud its taking a long time to clear away

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Depends where you are today parts of the south have a lot of cloud whilst the further north you head the brighter it is

Posted Image

The problem is the winds are so light so where you have cloud its taking a long time to clear away

It's overcast and breezy here, the problem is just how the high is positioned. It will break up as the day goes on (it may take all day) but it should clear over night as the flow changes slightly.

post-15177-0-32655600-1394540741_thumb.ppost-15177-0-37376500-1394540752_thumb.p

post-15177-0-98313400-1394540763_thumb.ppost-15177-0-12795100-1394540777_thumb.ppost-15177-0-31048000-1394540787_thumb.p

Edited by Mapantz
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Great, we finally get a high pressure system, but apart from last weekend this week is turning into a 'high pressure' cloudfest.  What's the point?

 

We've had 3 days in a row of blue skies and sunshine here Posted Image

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Hazy sunshine here on the north Essex coast, as it has been for much of the day. Not crystal clear, but pleasant nonetheless. I'm not confident about it lasting though... :unsure:

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Great, we finally get a high pressure system, but apart from last weekend this week is turning into a 'high pressure' cloudfest.  What's the point?

Speak for your own area! Unbroken brilliant sunshine here again! Sunny just up the way in Warwickshire.

In fact closer than that its nice and bright in Daventry :)

http://daventryweather.co.uk/cam.htm

Edited by TonyH
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Clear blue skys here now after a cloudy start. Feeling cool especially in the N/E breeze, Temp 9.8c.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Completely agree. That would be as unlikely as going through October until march without a single cold snap. Oh, wait a minute.....

 

But it has been cold a lot of the time, just not snowy or frosty which is standard winter fare, in my part of the world anyway...it certainly hasn't been mild apart from this last week!

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It's rare to get near-nationwide sunshine at this time of year as solar heating isn't strong enough to effectively disperse banks of stratiform cloud, but satellite imagery shows the majority of the country having sunshine.  Sunday was partly cloudy here but yesterday and today were both sunny all day.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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But it has been cold a lot of the time, just not snowy or frosty which is standard winter fare, in my part of the world anyway...it certainly hasn't been mild apart from this last week!

What? You actually believe that its was a cold Winter?

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What? You actually believe that its was a cold Winter?

No. Read what I said....it was cold a lot of the time...didn't see many people walking about in t-shirts. Just because it came out above average temperature wise doesn't mean it wasn't cold. The windy weather and rain we had made it feel even colder. Are you saying it was mild? How many days did you sit out in the garden with a cup of tea? Mow the lawn? Trip to the beach perhaps? Edited by simshady
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No. Read what I said....it was cold a lot of the time...didn't see many people walking about in t-shirts. Just because it came out above average temperature wise doesn't mean it wasn't cold. The windy weather and rain we had made it feel even colder. Are you saying it was mild? How many days did you sit out in the garden with a cup of tea? Mow the lawn? Trip to the beach perhaps?

You're being facetious, I suspect. You're making some silly assertions in any case. There were no exceptionally mild daytime temperatures, but a very noticeable lack of any truly cold days and very little in the way of overnight frost. London didn't record a daytime maximum below 5C at all between 1 December and 28 February - which has never happened before, as far as I'm aware. The picture was similar elsewhere - generally between 7 and 12C. Only one day at Manchester Airport had a maximum below 5C - none in February. In fact, February didn't even record a single air frost at Manchester Airport, and no snow either from what I can see.

 

So, yes, it has been mild - very much so. The daytime values were not too far from the average, but it was very mild at night - and of course, no snow, or very little snow - which is what you want, I presume, as opposed to just cold rain and wind, which is pretty useless and unpleasant.

 

(It would be good if these posts could be moved to the moaning thread)

 

Anyway - GFS doesn't look very cold this morning. There's a brief cooler period shown around the 19th, but it's quickly shunted away. High pressure regains influence later on, but it doesn't appear to be supported by its ensembles. ECM coming out now -  it shows tentative signs of high pressure rebuilding from the SW around the 21st, with a brief northerly spell prior, again getting shunted into the near continent hastily.

Edited by cheese
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Not really bothered about snow tbh. I like frosts and cold which is why i'm enjoying the current spell of HP. But no....it wasn't mild...it was a bit nippy really. Different parts of the country have different temperatures and people have differing perspectives on what feels cold and what feels warm...so really saying that it was not cold where I live is a little flippant. Silly argument trying to defend your 'mildism' Posted Image

Edited by simshady
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