Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Tony27]

well that's it so after all this false hope and model watching almost everyday this winter we get no reward for it, well i guess you win some and lose some, in my case it's win very few and lose many 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

and so begins the hunt for warmth in the shape of a southerly and high pressure. Cold, you had your chance and you blew it! Hopefully won't see you again for at least 7 months.

Edited February 22, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[gottolovethisweather]

and so begins the hunt for warmth in the shape of a southerly and high pressure. Cold, you had your chance and you blew it! Hopefully won't see you again for at least 7 months.

 

By the Spring Equinox I'd be happy to let your thoughts stand but I'd still appreciate some lying snow right up until then. After the aforementioned date, bring on the traditional April mix of sunshine and showers and a much warmer pattern by May and June please weather gods. I suppose that would represent some sort of normal weather/climatic pattern so the chances of it happening in our changed world is probably a 100 to 1 against, never say never though.

Edited February 22, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[phil nw.]

Spring can be the most interesting season for weather/model watching.

Dramatic skies often seen within showery/convective setups with those big anvil shaped cumulo nimbus clouds building against a stark blue sky when we get a burst of Polar air and a warming sun.

As the vortex starts to weaken the jet becomes more buckled creating more opportunities for deep cold troughs  followed by some fair weather within the following ridge.

Yes Winter has been very poor for snow and frost and far too wet but as the seasons change i feel more interesting model watching may well be on offer for those that embrace all weather types.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

By the Spring Equinox I'd be happy to let your thoughts stand but I'd still appreciate some lying snow right up until then. After the aforementioned date, bring on the traditional April mix of sunshine and showers and a much warmer pattern by May and June please weather gods. I suppose that would represent some sort of normal weather/climatic pattern so the chances of it happening in our changed world is probably a 100 to 1 against, never say never though.

I will agree with you, March is a transitional month. But of the extremes seen recently in March, if I saw a repeat of the cold March 2013 or a very warm March 2012 being projected in the models would see me skipping to work. But please not either of the Aprils that followed! Edited February 22, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[ANYWEATHER]

Its only two years ago that conditions were very dry across some parts of the Uk. then the hose pipe ban was announced in April and then  2012 was the wettest coolest summer on record.....never say never with the weather, because you will have egg amongst other things on your face....

[gottolovethisweather]

Spring can be the most interesting season for weather/model watching.

Dramatic skies often seen within showery/convective setups with those big anvil shaped cumulo nimbus clouds building against a stark blue sky when we get a burst of Polar air and a warming sun.

As the vortex starts to weaken the jet becomes more buckled creating more opportunities for deep cold troughs  followed by some fair weather within the following ridge.

Yes Winter has been very poor for snow and frost and far too wet but as the seasons change i feel more interesting model watching may well be on offer for those that embrace all weather types.

 

Well that was quite poetic Phil, I like it and I can truly picture the situation in my mind.

[gottolovethisweather]

Its only two years ago that conditions were very dry across some parts of the Uk. then the hose pipe ban was announced in April and then  2012 was the wettest coolest summer on record.....never say never with the weather, because you will have egg amongst other things on your face....

 

In fact I was wondering whether a 2012 type Spring might be to follow, having said that I refuse to give up on wintry weather beforehand. My thoughts are more focussed on the unreliability of pattern matching longer-term given the tendency for weather records to not replicate themselves as easily now. Anyway, I'm in danger of wandering off-topic so for now I better have that lie down.

[gottolovethisweather]

I will agree with you, March is a transitional month. But of the extremes seen recently in March, if I saw a repeat of the cold March 2013 or a very warm March 2012 being projected in the models would see me skipping to work. But please not either of the Aprils that followed!

 

I wouldn't bet against another extreme, that's for sure but equally it may come in Summer, at least that'd be my gut feeling. A wee bit of snow would be good just to say I saw something worthy of speaking about but no, please no March and/or April and May 2013 style.  

[cheese]

I will agree with you, March is a transitional month. But of the extremes seen recently in March, if I saw a repeat of the cold March 2013 or a very warm March 2012 being projected in the models would see me skipping to work. But please not either of the Aprils that followed!

April 2013 was chilly, but very dry and sunny. A few snow showers in places, but that's about it. I'd definitely take a repeat.

 

I probably wouldn't moan if we had a March 2013 repeat, although I'm hankering for some warmth and prolonged dryness.

Edited February 22, 2014 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

Promising signs for something more settled into March this is what Ian Fergusson tweeted just before 09:30

 

@fergieweather

 

Growing hints of a more optimistic situation into March with signs of high pressure extending up from SW... timing uncertain but promising.

 

Ties in nicely with what ECM is showing us

 

 

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

The pattern of a strongly westerly-dominated January and February and then a weaker dominance of westerlies into March with high pressure sometimes ridging into Europe has been characteristic of many past years that featured hot dry sunny summers, such as 1989, 1990 and 1995.  However, we must always be careful of reading too much into pattern matching- sometimes these relationships appear to hold for a while as a result of statistical "quirks" and then abruptly stop "working".

Edited February 23, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[BlueHedgehog074]

I would not be terribly surprised if this Summer turns out to be quite dry and settled. All that soggy weather we've had in the last few months, especially those in Western areas, does make you wonder whether the weather will try to equalise itself out in the following few months of so. Certainly encouraging that the likes of the ECMWF is continuing to build and extend High Pressure North-Eastwards. A bit of a shame really that the GFS does not really won't to be pals with the ECMWF's outlook in Fantasy Island with that Azores ridge getting surpressed by Lows coming in from the West. (Although does still throw the odd bit off ridging towards us here and their). Have a horrible feeling that the GFS could be right, but kinda hoping I'm wrong (even though it does show some quite chilly North-Westerlies, which may bring the odd wintry surprise).

[cooling climate]

With over 50 years behind me this will be the first winter where there has not been a single flake of snow during the three winter months (Dec, Jan and Feb). I thought 88/89 was bad. I am reasonably confident however of seeing something more wintry during March however with much more in the way of northern blocking.

[Summer Sun]

Darren Bett on the country file forecast has just said there is a signal for the weather to settle down after next weekend

 

[Nath]

The BIG question is.... will I see a single snowflake or a frost this winter????

 

Or can I call this winter  "the 6 month Autumn"

[Peter H]

 I am reasonably confident however of seeing something more wintry during March

 

Or even April.

 

We've had a couple of skiffs of snow but nothing that lasted for any length of time.

 

Roll on spring. Can't wait until the hour changes. 

[Peter H]

I probably wouldn't moan if we had a March 2013 repeat

Most of the farmers around here would be horrified if that happened. Lots of livestock lost, farms cut off for weeks, and 20ft of snow in many areas only a couple of hundred feet above sea level.A once in a lifetime event for most people

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

March 2013 and April 2013 were a nightmare for me. I hate wind. I accept it in winter and grit my teeth knowing spring will be here soon. I don't mind snow but prefer the calm high pressure systems in winter like we got in Jan 2010 and Dec 2010.

By early March though I am pining for spring so to live through a snowy winter and then have the coldest part to come in the first half of spring was tough.

But now looking back on it a year hence and reading Roger J Smith's excellent opening post of the March 2013 CET competition thread http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79484-march-2014-cet-forecasts/ I see just how incredibly cold the last part of that March was. I would say even more remarkable than the Dec 2010 event!

Edited February 24, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[snow freak]

Will the cold in the eastern USA ever stop?  As long as they are keeping that there is little change that our pattern will change, although to be honest, it is too late for this winter now and i just want the warmth of spring and summer now.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z's this time I think medium range to FI, ECM is closer this time than GFS, will likely see a backtrack from GFS on 00Z's towards ECM

[Tony27]

Will the cold in the eastern USA ever stop?  As long as they are keeping that there is little change that our pattern will change, although to be honest, it is too late for this winter now and i just want the warmth of spring and summer now.

typical isn't it, and this year they will have a scorching hot summer whilst it will probably be dull and cool here, i don't like heat but i want warmth and sun

[davehsug]

Well, I'm certainly happy to see the possibility of higher pressure, especially for the south. Off to Santander on the ferry from Portsmouth on 7th March, returning the following day & the prospects at sea have had me a tad concerned!

[snow freak]

typical isn't it, and this year they will have a scorching hot summer whilst it will probably be dull and cool here, i don't like heat but i want warmth and sun

yes it is and i only hope we have a decent summer after this horrendous winter.  I love the cold and snow, so have had a lousy winter but i also love the sun and warmth, so i am holding out for some of that this summer.  If not, that is it.... i am emigrating

[tinybill]

well just  been watching fox news  on there over  the  pond  going  back in to the  deep freeze  will be as  cold  as  December  there  we  all know what happened  last  time it  didn't  stop raining  over  here  for  weeks!!!