Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Nath]

would just be our luck for the weather patterns to change finally and we end up with bitterly cold spring, therefore prolonging winter for another 2 months meaning even more heating costs.  Too little too late in my opinion. 

That is the single good thing about this winter, my Mum being of a certain age gets a £200 heating allowance and we havnt had our heating on for a single minute. LOL

 

For the record this could be the first time in my 39 years of observing that I will possibly not see a single snowflake during winter.

 

If I dont get a summer of heat and storms I will expect my mum to receive a summer "disappointment payment" of £200 also!!

[Peter H]

The 3 weeks in July were very warm, dry and sunny, the rest of the summer was fairly average and unmemorable here at least.

 

 

Indeed, July 2013 in Northern Ireland was quite exceptional by our standards.

 

August was quite a strange month in that it was still quite mild and we had far more thunderstorms than usual. Every day for one week, if I remember correctly. 

Still, only a little over 5 weeks until the hour changes and then we really will be in spring. As mpkio2 quite rightly says about this winter, "just go away" 

Apart from 2011/12 (which was pretty bad in these parts) one to forget.. 

[Peter H]

If I dont get a summer of heat and storms I will expect my mum to receive a summer "disappointment payment" of £200 also!!

Come on Nath, you're in Northwest London for goodness sake. It's nearly always hot and thundery in the south during the summer. at least at some stage of the season

My brother-in-law (who's a pilot) says it's really noticeable when flying. Once you get north of about Manchester there's almost always a permanent veil of cloud.

Edited February 19, 2014 by Peter H

[snow freak]

Maybe we should think about changing our calendar back by 2 months.  It seems the seasons are all delayed.  We get mild weather in winter, cold weather in Spring, Spring weather in Summer, Summer weather in Autumn...etc.

[snow freak]

Yeah. As much as I like the cold/snow, sometimes you have to be realistic about the weather.

 

I think that both weather types (Cold/snow/ice) and (rain/winds/floods) are as dangerous as each other. Elderly people are especially at risk when it comes to cold weather, but, of course, can be just as dangerous to people of any age; I remember the papers reporting some deaths in December 2010. But the same can be said about the floods! It was reported that people lost their lives due to the floods that occured in Summer 2012.

 

(You can watch the documentary on 4oD "The Year Britain Flooded" and "The Year Britain Frooze" about how both events caused destruction and, in some cases, took the lives of people. though you might have already watched it. )

 

My point is, both weather types are just as dangerous and life-threatening as each other; known are worse than the other, though it does deppend on the individul and his/hers weather preferrence in which they like. Which is why I say pray to those who are being affected by the floods right now, cause, as you say, some people have lost loved ones, and thats something than can never be replaced.

 

mpkio2

i totally understand that cold and snowy weather can be dangerous, but lets not go overboard on the dramatics.  Many parts of the world cope with months of cold and snow every year.... and they have lots of elderly people living in these areas too.  What do they do all winter..... hibernate?  of course not, they just get on with it.

That is the single good thing about this winter, my Mum being of a certain age gets a £200 heating allowance and we havnt had our heating on for a single minute. LOL

 

For the record this could be the first time in my 39 years of observing that I will possibly not see a single snowflake during winter.

 

If I dont get a summer of heat and storms I will expect my mum to receive a summer "disappointment payment" of £200 also!!

it may not have been bitterly cold but we have still had the heating on as usual as you can hardly say the weather has been balmy (barmy yes) all winter.  Its been neither too warm or too cold.  horrid!

[mpkio2]

i totally understand that cold and snowy weather can be dangerous, but lets not go overboard on the dramatics.  Many parts of the world cope with months of cold and snow every year.... and they have lots of elderly people living in these areas too.  What do they do all winter..... hibernate?  of course not, they just get on with it.

it may not have been bitterly cold but we have still had the heating on as usual as you can hardly say the weather has been balmy (barmy yes) all winter.  Its been neither too warm or too cold.  horrid!

I see what your saying but I never said that elderly people all around the world loose their lifes due to cold weather....I only meant it has "occured" in our country, because, as you know, we Brits usual grind to hault when it snows by 2cm! Your right; people in other countries, when it snows, just get on with it, though I think its because those countries get cold/snowy/icy weather on a regular basis and have the equipment to cope with it, and are used to it.

 

My point still stands that both weather is dangerous and life-threatening, giving the right circumstances. Like I said, I love snow/cold/icy weather, but I'm not gonna deny how destructive it can be: if you think about, all weather have the "potential" to be dangerous, whether its freezing cold weather, snizzling hot weather and stormy weather. Its like someone who loves tornados; their not ignorant enough to not know how dangerous they can be.

 

I know what you mean by having the heating on; its been neither freezing cold though neither balmy mild, but somewhere in the milddle, on the most part, during most of the winter; "chilly" I would describe it.  Agreed; its been horrid and I wish it would all just end now!

 

mpkio2

[The PIT]

Well I've noticed next Tuesday into Thursday has warmed up. It was looking to provide some interest but no longer it seems.

[johnholmes]

Well I've noticed next Tuesday into Thursday has warmed up. It was looking to provide some interest but no longer it seems.

 

One could, perhaps rather unkindly, say this, the variability of the British weather is only exceeded by the variability of the models and hence the forecasts!

[The PIT]

One could, perhaps rather unkindly, say this, the variability of the British weather is only exceeded by the variability of the models and hence the forecasts!

Yup however there has been one consistent nature of the modelling this winter. Any potential cold spells have almost without fail bar the odd day either disappeared altogether or just turned into a cool day. Variability should dictate that sooner or later we will have one that gets constantly cooler and longer.

[Bobby]

The past 10 winters here rated for cold and snowiness ('snowless' defined as no covering of at least an inch )

 

Winter 2004-2005 - 5/10 - a cold snap or two with some coverings of snow, fairly average overall

Winter 2005-2006 - 7/10 - several cold snaps and decent coverings of snow, a pretty good winter!

Winter 2006-2007 - 4/10 - nowt apart from 2 significant but short lived snowfalls in early February which redeems it somewhat from a being write-off

Winter 2007-2008 - 2/10 - almost snowless, wet, mild

Winter 2008-2009 - 7/10 - an impressive prolonged cold, frosty anticyclonic spell in December, notable cold and snowy spell in February

Winter 2009/2010 - 8/10 - very cold and snowy period in December, another cold and snowy spell early January. Rest of winter just cold, damp and dull

Winter 2010-2011 - 8.5/10 - exceptional period of cold mid-Nov through December, significant snow. Rest of winter - nothing, but the start more than redeems it

Winter 2011-2012 - 2/10 - snowless, dull

Winter 2012-2013 - 5/10 - a memorable week or so spell of cold and significant snow in January, little else otherwise

Winter 2013-2014 - 1/10 - snowless, almost frostless, very wet, mild

 

So this is the worst of the past 10 winters here for cold and snow, barely even a frost - even other snowless mild winters manage a few decent frosts. Weatherwise in general though it's at least been interesting unlike some of the snowless mild winters.

[Gord]

That early February snowfall in 2012 required a bit of luck in our half of the country. We were very very lucky here in the West Midlands...it was so close. But places west of here would have endured a snowless winter as they saw just rain and sleet in that event. With Bobby being in Wales, I could believe he missed out. Gutting it must have been too.

[Bobby]

That early February snowfall in 2012 required a bit of luck in our half of the country. We were very very lucky here in the West Midlands...it was so close. But places west of here would have endured a snowless winter as they saw just rain and sleet in that event. With Bobby being in Wales, I could believe he missed out. Gutting it must have been too.

 

Yes I remember the snow being to the north while we had rain. The big March blizzard last year was most frustrating, if the front had been 50-75 miles further south we'd have had a foot or two of snow like in N Wales, just rain in the end. Pfft.

Edited February 20, 2014 by Bobby

[snow freak]

Yup however there has been one consistent nature of the modelling this winter. Any potential cold spells have almost without fail bar the odd day either disappeared altogether or just turned into a cool day. Variability should dictate that sooner or later we will have one that gets constantly cooler and longer.

yes.... just in time for summer.  I think if we end up getting a 'cool' summer after this winter, people will go into meltdown.

[Bobby]

Hey I forgot the significant battleground snow event later in January 2010 which gave 7-8 inches here, so 2009-2010 should be rated around 8.5/10, maybe 9/10 if generous however there were so many marginal situations where we missed out it leaves a bitter taste in the mouth so 8.5 is all you're getting.

Edited February 20, 2014 by Bobby

[Tony27]

what a lame end to winter, charts are more boring to look at than watching the indoor bowls, it feels really mild here and blossom has already come out, i bet we get a northerly toppler in late march, its unlikely this pattern will continue all the way through spring and i will be amazed if we don't have any cold snaps in spring 

 

yes.... just in time for summer.  I think if we end up getting a 'cool' summer after this winter, people will go into meltdown.

then we get a mild dry winter next winter, god help us

Edited February 20, 2014 by Tony27

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I know that "gutting" feeling all too well. It was the snowfall of January 18, 2013 and places literally 2 or 3 miles away (at the same altitute as me) got 20 to 25 cm of snow, but it was just endless rain where I live, and then I was gutted and frustrated.

 

just rain that day? thought everywhere had good snow, was my best snow since Nov 1996

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yep, unfortunately.

 

14th Jan was similar here, east of me dumping of snow, just rain and sleet here, even thawed my snow from evening of 13th

[MP-R]

Yep, unfortunately.

 

Manchester microclimate or urban heat island effect? Most of the country away from Cornwall and the coasts had snow did they not?

 

Although the models continue the unsettled theme as far into March as we can see, at least it's a more typical March pattern of mild, wet and windy interspersed with brief drier and calmer interludes and colder, brighter interludes. Certainly the more interesting type of zonal rather than the borefest this winter has been.

[Tim Bland]

Indeed Nick, keep piling up the snow in the Pyrenees for me! Off to Pas dela casa nxt weekend. At least I will see a few flakes this winter even if they aren't in the uk!

[Frosty.]

I'm not going skiing but I'm sure piste off with this weather now with another week of very unsettled weather. I'm hopeful of a colder spell by the end of next week.

[picog]

Is there any latest time in spring by which the PV will have finally succumbed to the warming sun?

[Weather-history]

Sums up this winter's cold/snow/high pressure hunt

[Weather-history]

[BlueHedgehog074]

Admittedly would love to see one or two proper snow events before it gets too late, but nice to see some models, such as the ECMWF, building High Pressure towards the UK in Fantasy Island. Please models, just for once, do not start to rob the High Pressure away from those after drier weather (including me) on future runs and allow that Canadian Vortex (and it's devilish Atlantic Lows) to go and flatten it out like a pancake. It does, at least, look like that any building of High Pressure from our South-West or something could still help to deflect the Jet Stream a little bit further North with the South probably seeing less disturbed conditions (sort of how this week has turned out to be, but perhaps still a little bit more drier).

Edited February 22, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine

[phil nw.]

A growing trend in the recent model runs for the Azores high starting to show it,s hand early March.

I hope this comes off as i would think a lot of folk would welcome some dry weather with some sunshine.

The se quarter likely to be favoured with the brightest weather off a s.westerly flow but too early to be sure of surface detail at this stage.