Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[snow freak]

this winter is likely to be remembered .... for all the wrong reasons.

[snow freak]

just our luck that the weather patterns change to something a lot colder....just in time for Spring when we all want the warmer weather after months of dreary winter.

[mushymanrob]

You want too see my local alleged metrology  presenters on BBC North west, they definitely have a mild bias, but what they know about weather you could write on the back of a postage stamp. Also the vast majority of the UK aren't interested in weather or they would be posting here.

 

so they are presenters not professionals that were quoted in the post i replied too

 

most of the population are interested in what the weather might do, but not to the point of 'posting in here'... just look how many members there are, how many guests there are, then the % of people who bother to post. weather effects everyone, most want to know what itll do, but very few are interested in getting involved in forecasts, chart reading, learning etc...they want it told to them by people who do.

 

Dear Sir, UTTER TRIPE.

 

what is?

 

the fact that the forecasters mention in the post i quoted are professionals?

the fact that because they dont like or ramp up cold means they arent unbiased?

the fact that the vast majority of the population dont like cold weather?

the fact that the % of cold weather lovers on these forums do not accurately reprisent the % of cold lovers in the public?

the fact that when they say 'at least itll be mild' is the news that most would prefer (over cold)?

the fact that a big freeze now would be added misery to those flooded?

 

or the fact that you dont seem to be able to swallow the truth that the vast majority of the population dont like or want it cold, and that you buggers who play the 'cold weather chasing game' through winter are in a minority in real life.

 

Mushy, think you are kind of right about forecasters as they are professionals and say how it is, however when they say 'at least it will be mild' they refer to wet grey and windy weather which 99.9 % of the population hate, so put a spin on it. Maybe majority want settled sunny and mild in winter? But show a picture of a frosty morning with clear skies and a faint plume of smoke from a woodburning stove floating effortlessly, or a grey rainy day with dustbin lids flying through the sky, think most would go for the former? Ps in winter to dry things up, cold is best to get the wet bulb and dew points down to suck the moisture out, mild is no good really as the sun has little power

 

fair point, but even if its grey and overcast but mild...its still mild, and thats a plus point to most who are still recovering from last winters prolonged heating bills. i agree, i think most would take sunny and cold over mild and overcast... but not sunny and frozen.

 

The fact that it is mild is hardly of any comfort to those who find their houses waterlogged. I would consider that slightly insulting - the temperature is wholly irrelevant. If I lived in Somerset, I would be praying for an elongated spell of dry weather, and I wouldn't care if it was cold or mild.

 

... but if it was freezing it would be worse. if these floodwaters froze now it would prolong the clear up, it would add another dimension of misery to their plight. i think if i was underwater i wouldnt be insulted to think that some people wanted it to freeze up!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think that if you had a chat with the present-day BBC weather presenters, you'd probably find that many of them would welcome at least the odd short-lived snowy spell, including some of the ones who come across as "mild rampers".  The problem is that there is a general media policy that presenters should try to reassure viewers about when the next "good" weather will be or find "positives", which refers to weather that causes a minimum of inconvenience and disruption, hence the preference for mild, grey and drizzly over cold, dry and sunny with risk of frost, as the latter is more likely to cause accidents/disruption during the rush hour.  I think the main issue is putting value judgements on the weather rather than bias, although I do occasionally see forecasts that try to paint a positive picture by emphasising "good" weather and glossing over "bad" weather, particularly around Bank Holidays.

 

I am not convinced that a large majority of the population dislikes short-lived snowy spells or thunderstorms, though it cannot be denied that the majority prefer warm weather over cold (all other things being equal) and aren't keen on prolonged snowy spells.

 

I have never seen the "reflecting the opinions of the perceived majority" argument as a good reason for adopting a policy of deliberately putting value judgements on the weatherr.  To me, it's like saying that the BBC's sports coverage should focus on reassuring viewers about how Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button are getting on in F1, since it is a pretty safe bet that the majority of the British population supports one or both of those drivers.  I recall that ITV increasingly took this stance when they covered F1 and we got a lot of the same arguments then as we do re. value judgements on TV/media weather forecasts.  Of course, it is not realistically possible to be 100% impartial, but I thought that the BBC weather forecasts of the 1990s did as good a job of this as their modern-day sports coverage.

Edited February 3, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Carl46Wrexham]

February is but three days old......and I hate it already.....already it is looking to be as detestable as January was. Kick this poxy season out of it. Roll on the Spring. Sick of this perma-autumn crap.

[snow freak]

i think this abysmal winter is driving us all a little crazy and we are ending up insulting one another out of sheer frustration.  I just wish this extended Autumn would just end now and the summer to start.  That is if we actually get a decent summer in the UK this year.  I won't be holding my breath for that either.

[Bobby]

Keep thinking the charts won't get worse, then they do, rain over next 8 days

 

 

Think we're going to need a bigger boat

 

[Nath]

Somebody please turn this winter off, and activate a lovely warm spring.

 

This could be the 1st winter in my entire 45 year life that I havnt seen a single snowflake, even a sleety one LOL

[MP-R]

If I was in one of the areas flooded at the moment, I don't think how mild or cold it becomes would bare much relevance as long as it was dry. It's more about what weather pattern is most likely to happen with a raging PV, a cold high, a mild high - whatever. If a cold, frosty spell was more likely than a mild, anticyclonic spell, I would take it as long as it is not raining. From an imby point of view, any snow would be a bonus.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Utterly depressing models

Feb is looking like a write off now,2014 the year without a winter....

[snow freak]

this winter as bad, if not worse than 1988/9.  I remember that one well as we had no snow whatsoever... well in London anyway.  This one is looking like following suit.  This country can never get its act together when it comes to the weather.  In the summer its always too cloudy and cool and then in the winter its too mild and damp.  Dunno about the scandinavians suffering from depression because of lack of sunlight but i think the UK suffers from depression because of lack of any decent reliable weather...at any time of the year.

[JK1]

Tree in are garden is producing new shoot shouldn't do that till spring and daffodils everywhere are sprouting and flowering too. really shows the lack of proper cold, I just want a dry warm spring, sick of the rain

Edited February 3, 2014 by JK1

[mushymanrob]

 

 

I am not convinced that a large majority of the population dislikes short-lived snowy spells or thunderstorms, though it cannot be denied that the majority prefer warm weather over cold (all other things being equal) and aren't keen on prolonged snowy spells.

 

 

 

Tree in are garden is producing new shoot shouldn't do that till spring and daffodils everywhere are sprouting and flowering too. really shows the lack of proper cold, I just want a dry warm spring, sick of the rain

 

huh...dunno how that happened..

 

tws.... im my experience the people i meet, and in my job i meet alot, dont like the cold. they dont like it and dont want it. this is reflected on other non weather forums too. so my view might be 'perceived', but its one based on actual feedback.

 

i too like a short lived snowy spell, just a few days before the negetives of cold outweigh the positives. i also think that many wouldnt mind a short lived snowy spell. but in general people i know both in reality and away from weather forums dont like prolonged cold.

 

jk1 .... there are some early flowering varieties of daffodils that do flower in late january/early february. all the normal daffs here are poking through, but not shooting to flower...yet...

[Seasonal Trim]

I like your analysis during the summer months mushymanrob but by god you do come across as an anti-cold troll. Can't you just accept that people have different views than your own and get on with it!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the above works both ways though- I quite often see some cold/snow fans not being especially tolerant of views that differ from their own (e.g. those who are enjoying some aspects of the current Atlantic-driven weather aren't going down well, and are often finding themselves on the receiving end of the same sort of "You're wishing disruption on others" type dismissals that snow lovers get during prolonged snowy spells).  I don't see anything particularly untoward in Mushy's above two posts, he is just stating his observations.

[Seasonal Trim]

I think the above works both ways though- I quite often see some cold/snow fans not being especially tolerant of views that differ from their own (e.g. those who are enjoying some aspects of the current Atlantic-driven weather aren't going down well, and are often finding themselves on the receiving end of the same sort of "You're wishing disruption on others" type dismissals that snow lovers get during prolonged snowy spells).  I don't see anything particularly untoward in Mushy's above two posts, he is just stating his observations.

Don't think you understand where I'm coming from. I agree that there are the same sort of comments coming from both sides of the divide, but it seems that 50% of mushys comments are about other peoples preferences compared to his own. I'm not saying that I disagree with him, just change the bloody record!

[snow freak]

i think the mild lovers need to realise that being in the UK they generally get to have lots of the kind of weather they love (ie. mild) so they really could do with giving the coldies a break as invariably cold lovers get such a raw deal with the weather in this country.  Just a thought.

[mushymanrob]

I like your analysis during the summer months mushymanrob but by god you do come across as an anti-cold troll. Can't you just accept that people have different views than your own and get on with it!

 

nah, im not an anti cold troll...im an anti cold biased troll! thats why i disappear in winter because i cannot abide the bias on here, the 'spot the cold evolution' game, its incredibly unhelpful to those who just want realistic, unbiased weather predictions. its no wonder there are tabloid headlines predicting major freezes, the journos view these forums and thats their scource of info! :lol:

 

Don't think you understand where I'm coming from. I agree that there are the same sort of comments coming from both sides of the divide, but it seems that 50% of mushys comments are about other peoples preferences compared to his own. I'm not saying that I disagree with him, just change the bloody record!

 

thats untrue... the few posts ive made here arnt about my preferances vs the coldies, theyve been about the general publics views... the point being that the % of cold weather fans on here is totally disproportionate to what there is in real life, and they 'call' unbiased weathermen for not sharing their desire.

 

i dont care who likes what weather, but i object to unbiased people being put down by any faction and called because their predictions or comments dont suit the agenda. i also object to those who dont like cold on here being made to feel uncomfortable, as some have mentioned, as if its a crime to not like cold.

 

as for changing the record.... lol... how do you think those who want an unbiased realistic prediction feel on here in winter? and of course you dont have to read what i post... it bothers me not.

[Summer Sun]

The met office one again hinting at some longer drier brighter spells in southern and eastern regions as we progress through the month although rain still doesn't go completely it does look like a respite could be on the cards

 

Tuesday 18 Feb 2014 to Tuesday 4 Mar 2014:

 

Current indications point towards early February's changeable conditions persisting through the rest of the month.

 

The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent spells of unsettled and windy weather. Meanwhile southern and eastern regions should tend to see longer spells of drier and brighter weather than previous weeks, although still with some rain-bearing systems.

 

This would mean that temperatures are likely to remain close to, or just above, the seasonal average, but with some colder periods possible, with the risk of frost and ice, and hill snow.

[phil nw.]

The main observations i have with the model discussions is that all views are welcome but are always more credible when supported by some data.

It's a shame when a few get emotional over weather charts and become argumentative as they seem to forget that the models don't dictate the weather.They are simply numerical calculations that change from day to day.

If someone wishes to only highlight say FI charts because they show what they want then they must accept that may not be the final outcome whether warm or cold.

The main thread is really for objective and informative posts based on what we actually see in the charts.

This is why this thread is open for more subjective views where your hopes/ramps or moans about the outputs can be posted to help keep the main thread on track.

.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I know that spring is not too far away when I see Mushyman posting again. I've not heard a peek from him since October.

So i've booked my holidays for 2nd week of March. Any chance of hitting 19C?

[swfc]

Five days of the mo and was hopefull of some change in the outlook,hmmm.Looking over the last couple of months can anyone remember the uk getting a true northerly blast at all???They seem as rare as an east wind these days tbh

[snow freak]

okay i think i'm done for the winter so no more netweather forum for me until next winter.  Really not excited about how hot this summer may or may not be, as no doubt we will get the odd 'hot' day here and there so nothing to get that overexcited about.  Have a nice summer folks!

[mushymanrob]

The met office one again hinting at some longer drier brighter spells in southern and eastern regions as we progress through the month although rain still doesn't go completely it does look like a respite could be on the cards

 

Tuesday 18 Feb 2014 to Tuesday 4 Mar 2014:

 

Current indications point towards early February's changeable conditions persisting through the rest of the month.

 

The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent spells of unsettled and windy weather. Meanwhile southern and eastern regions should tend to see longer spells of drier and brighter weather than previous weeks, although still with some rain-bearing systems.

 

This would mean that temperatures are likely to remain close to, or just above, the seasonal average, but with some colder periods possible, with the risk of frost and ice, and hill snow.

 

 

the anomaly charts have hinted a few times recently of a pressure build to our south, sounds like bartlett territory to me, although they have failed to firm up on this. the mjo appears to be hinting at something settled as it suggests a weak orbit in phase 5 or 6... it cant carry on being as wet as this forever.

[Frosty_wsm]

I like your analysis during the summer months mushymanrob but by god you do come across as an anti-cold troll. Can't you just accept that people have different views than your own and get on with it!

Nicely put and I also agree 100% with what you say regarding said poster!