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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


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Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey

    what about all the other forecasters who predicted a colder and drier than average winter and especially the ones who forecast a mild start to winter but then becoming much colder by mid January?  I could forecast that kind of forecast without even glancing at any charts, the sun, stratosphere, etc.   What utter tosh.

    Quite, long range seasonal forecasting is impossible.  Anyone forecast this monsoon winter ? hmm no thought not,

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Don't think we've had one single sniff of a northerly at all yet this Winter, which in its own rights is rather strange? Not saying we won't just another observation of this topsy-turvey weather of late.

     

    This was the closest we have come so far way back in early December

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Just done this picture below it will sum up peoples thoughts of "winter" 2013 / 2014 quite well I think

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffs
  • Location: South Staffs

    What utter rubbish this winter has been. Cold with rain rain an more rain here today. Utter rubbish.

    Game over for snow this winter the way it is going.

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    Just done this picture below it will sum up peoples thoughts of "winter" 2013 / 2014 quite well I think

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    Lol I remember that episode.

     

    The sound of crickets and tumbleweed in the MOD thread says it all. The GFS 12z is worse than the 06z, some achievement.

    Edited by Bobby
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Mild winters, wet & windy summers
  • Location: Hampshire

    I have come to the belief that weather forecasting is about as reliable as fortune telling.  If you allow for so many variables and possible outcomes then one of them has to hit the mark at some point.  It's just all guesswork regardless of what the models and computers are trying to predict.

    Totally agree, some people on here seem to trust every output especially when it's showing the weather they want! It's just a load of very expensive computers churning out pot luck charts. The met office know that there isn't a computer that could predict 2 weeks ahead because weather is always chaotic, that's why chart matching never works! I can see a cold outbreak occurring within 2 weeks from the Northeast. That's what the tea leaves in the bottom of my cup are telling me anyway!
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

    What utter rubbish this winter has been. Cold with rain rain an more rain here today. Utter rubbish.

    Game over for snow this winter the way it is going.

     

    Cold rain ALL [email protected](was outdoors tooPosted Image ) Gets home and............yepPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    So our cold snap this week was supposed to peak tommorow. Now we have 8c and rain forecasts for the east. I hope this is a blip and we don't revert to this being our normal winter weather for the next few years. All hope rests on the strat and the main man himself (Ian f) has said the Meto don't rate the warning having any effect...zzz roll on spring

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm & Sunny
  • Location: West Sussex

    Did you actually counter this prediction at the time ?

    Not at all. I was merely pointing out the foolhardiness of his Maddenesque statement.
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    Long range forecasts are a bit useless I think but short range and medium forecasts are pretty accurate these days.

     

    I think all the tea leaves, seaweed and old farmers/folk sayings enthusiasts should get together and make a long range forecast based on them for this summer and see how they compare to the 'scientific' ones. I think there won't be much difference and the seaweed et all has a good chance at coming on top! Would be a bit of fun at least.

    Edited by Bobby
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    Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

    From what I can see, the US stays in the freezer and we stay on the draining board.

    then they will get a fantastic hot summer and we will get a dull, cool, wet summer, or a dull, cool, dry summer with easterlies and northerlies, yeah i know this cliche is tiresome now but it will probably be true

    Edited by Tony27
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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

    Winter 2013/14....a summary of the hunt for cold snowy weather..........

     

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIIuR-HjFho

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    Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

    then they will get a fantastic hot summer and we will get a dull, cool, wet summer, or a dull, cool, dry summer with easterlies and northerlies, yeah i know this cliche is tiresome now but it will probably be true

     

    Well you might not be far wrong - considering on average our climate is dominated by a prevailing W/SW wind. The likelyhood of a long hot Summer is less than a cool wet one.

    Edited by Gaz1985
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    Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

    Well you might not be far wrong - considering on average our climate is dominated by a prevailing W/SW wind. The likelyhood of a long hot Summer is less than a cool wet one.

    a hot summer is more likely than a cold snowy winter though, plus even if we have a cool wet summer we will still see a few pleasant sunny days here and there, it won't literally be cool and wet every single day in summer so mildies should thank their lucky stars that they won't have to endure the complete crap like us coldies have to go through in winter as we can barely scrape a frost this winter, you can count on one hand the amount of snow days we get in a normal winter, sunny warm days in summer are far more common than snow is in winter, it doesn't need to be 30c for you to enjoy summary weather, 21c- 25c is good enough, 2c and slush don't quite cut it for me, i enjoy warm, sunny weather but i have totally gone off humid, hot weather in summer after last year

     

    june 2012 was awful but there were still a few pleasant dry days in that month here, i haven't see any snow in this dire winter so far

    Edited by Tony27
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    GFS is the model 99% of the time it shows wind and rain 99% of the time it's right, like Ian Brown

     

    GFS is the most accurate model

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    a hot summer is more likely than a cold snowy winter though,

    I'd be interested in seeing some statistics to back this up. It's probably true, but I'd like to see some verification.

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    Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

    sunny warm days in summer are far more common than snow is in winter

     

    They are where you live, the further north and west you go the Summers are in a league for their own for crapness. Apart from last July. I remember previous Summers many a time the south east with 25-28c yet it has been 17c here dull or even raining, not really warm enough to enjoy.

    Edited by Gaz1985
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Mild winters, wet & windy summers
  • Location: Hampshire

    I'd be interested in seeing some statistics to back this up. It's probably true, but I'd like to see some verification.

    Think it's the other way around. I'm 53 and can only count a handful of hot summers and that includes 1976 on the other hand since 1979 there has been many more cold winters!
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    Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

    They are where you live, the further north and west you go the Summers are in a league for their own for crapness. Apart from last July. I remember previous Summers many a time the south east with 25-28c yet it has been 17c here dull or even raining, not really warm enough to enjoy.

    suppose, but at least mild/warm weather is possible anywhere in the uk from march to october, that's a long window of opportunities , the cold snowy season is very short, november and march snow is rare as hen's teeth here, it was 20c in many places in march and april a couple of years ago, snow in england in september or october is once in a 50-100 year event, even in scotland snow is unlikely in those months,

     

    although the uk is a martime climate with neither hot or cold weather the norm, mildies on here and joe public have it better than coldies, unless you are a gardener and need it to stay mild at night, i had that problem in the past when it was cold at night in june and my crops suffered but most people are asleep at night so it don't bother them, yes 30c+ is pretty rare in the uk in a calender year just like ice days and snow is, but it don't need to be 30c for you to enjoy good weather, 15c-25c and sunny is good enough for me in spring and summer as it for for many people, but if you want hot weather all the time go to spain, just like i am told i need to go to russia for cold and snow although even russia is mild at times,

     

    anyway i realise this is off topic sorry mods, anyway back on topic i cannot take the ECM seriously with its tease tonight, i hope people don't get sucked in after one half decent op run in FI

    Edited by Tony27
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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Well surprise surprise the ECM is leading people up the garden path again in the mod thread and people are buying it. When will some learn lol. Also talk of a strat warming is getting banded about again. Even though Ian f said the other day that they is no warming been shown at the met office. Also there long range models paint a wet mild picture. So I gave up with the search for cold and snow last week. And hopefully we may start to see the first signs of spring in the not too distant future. Rand over. Feel better for that lol.

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