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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

    This is a genuine area of interest. The post winter analysis as to why the strat got as cold as it got will be worth reading. I dont have the knowledge or skill yet... and I suppose with 5 weeks or so of proper winter left it is premature to be setting up such a question on the strat thread. But it is a question that must be asked. While the +QBO ENSO neutral and solar maximum analogues did point to a strong vortex driven by a cold core, at least for the first 2/3 of winter, I think it must still be a bit of a surprise just how cold the strat has been. 

     

     

    Could be the Maunder Minima making the Strat so cold plus the fact the cold has been bottled for a long time now without any really ebs and flows south apart from in to Canada and the States recently. Maunder Minima happening at a time of what should of been very high activity.Scientists bit baffled by it apparently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    I get the feeling this thread might turn dormant for a little while based on this morning's output. Dire really. And there is nothing to latch on to right now even in FI. I guess it marks the end of hopes for the core winter so to speak which is disappointing. However I echo the sentiments that the latter half of Feburary and even March can still deliver so all is not lost. And we can never rule out a sudden change in the outlook in our favour in the mean time. It's tough going but chin up.

    Edited by The Eagle
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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

    Probably ranks high up there as a very disapointing season as the summer of 2012.

     

    Hopefully a statisical blip and not a cyclical switching to a more NOA+ regime like that of the 90's

     

    roll on 2014/2015

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    My last hope is perhaps something like February 2004. Next week just looks like more unseasonal Atlantic dross but if some amplification can take place then something more anticyclonic followed by a cold finish could take place (that's what I'm hoping for anyway). I think it was 26th Feb 2004 that gave a heavy snowfall to the West Country after a very mild start.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Not even February and winter is over ! Must be a first for a number of years.

     

    post-6667-0-80847500-1390907566_thumb.jp

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    I think mild Winters tends to follow by wet and cool Summers. I hope this isn't the case.

     

    We did have a hot Summer last year though but the odds of a wet one is pretty high atm.

    Edited by pip22
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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    I think mild Winters tends to follow by wet and cool Summers. I hope this isn't the case. We did have a hot Summer last year though but the odds of a wet one is pretty high atm.

    I think we'll see a coldish March and April followed by a warm May and June. Thereafter cool and wet, another hunch but hopefully we'll see some warm and sunny weather for at least 8 weeks of the year, which I'll take right now.
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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    To me it is just as interesting as snow and ice as it makes up what is known as 'The weather'. This morning's charts can hardly be called boring and serve up a cocktail of interesting weather events over the coming weeks. Of course they are not the type of charts that many want to see and it is remarkable to me that how quiet it becomes on here when all chance of cold has gone as if 'weather' as a subject has been removed rather than snow. It would be helpful to 'newbies' if those that post disecting  the atmosphere explaining why this and that will be responsible for bringing cold in the next week or so were to stay on here when the event doesn't happen to explain 'Why' it hasn't happened rather than disappearing from the forum altogether until the next cold shot is shown.

    This is a forum for weather enthusiasts who want winter weather in winter. There are plenty of comments re: deluges but after you have seen ten already in one winter you have seen them all. Fascinating you may find it, but many do not. That the model prognosis is for more of the same means enthusiasm is wearing rather thin for many, and quite understandably so.
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    Posted
  • Location: Epping by day/Bexley by night
  • Location: Epping by day/Bexley by night

    See you lot next November then, even Tamara has now thrown in the towel, joining Steve Murr, Matt Hugo and Nick Sussex, so it's time to stop kidding ourselves and look forward to the Spring and then hope that Mother Nature and the weather gods, give us a nice cold blocked winter 14/15, to make up for this wet miserable excuse for a winter that they've given us this year.

     

    Winter 13/14, should be banned from being mentioned ever againPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Odiham, Hampshire
  • Location: Odiham, Hampshire

    Tamara, Nick Sussex, Steve Murr et al have thrown in the towel in terms of anything cold in the foreseeable future. When the last bull turns bearish and sells out, perhaps it is time for us to buy into an extended cold spell. We'll probably see cold synoptics appearing very soon and a freezing February.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

    mcweather said so far this month I,ve recorded 247mm of rain.

     

    Exactly the same as me! Posted Image

     

    Glad to see the crap is being spread around evenly Mapantz

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Maybe this is a period of exceptionally cold winters , only this one hit the states. Next year it could be us again , even during the Maunder Minimum years there were a few warmer winters!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire

    Hmm, pictures on my phone show snow & huge icicles March 23rd 2013. I for one won't throw in any towel until April has been & gone. I've read comments on here for years but this year nothing is making any sense. We've had people wetting themselves over cold that hasn't arrived & now people are saying it's over presumably based on the same COMPUTER models & info. It's not over until it's physically impossible which is a LONG way off.

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    What an absolute bag of sh*te this winter has been .Im a coldie but not even a dry spell.Out of all the northern hemisphere we are situated in the worse place!

    And the yanks can shove their bigger and better winters up their ar*ses lol.

    Really stained glass windowing annoyed,im sure someone somewhere is controlling this pattern having a laugh at our expense!

    And watch come spring hlb will become the pattern with the jet running south of us to set up a crap spring and wet summer.P*stoff.com

    Anyway,hope your all good?

    Lol.

    And whoever catches my towel,keep the swearing is not big or clevering thing .

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    that's three big guns thrown in the towel for this Winter...Hugo, Ferguson and Murr.I'm holding of until Chiono says so.

    I wrote winter off three days before even when I know the possibility of late season cold spells from historical records.
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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

    more rain.  oh what a surprise....not!  the rate things are going this island will soon be submerged under the atlantic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

    I think mild Winters tends to follow by wet and cool Summers. I hope this isn't the case.

     

    We did have a hot Summer last year though but the odds of a wet one is pretty high atm.

    sorry but i dont remember a hot summer last year or a particularly memorable one for that matter.  I'm in the midlands.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

    A note to disappointed cold snow loving people (which i enjoy myself to), last year March and April were the coldest of the winter and brought some snow to so while many say "ah well winter over come end of February think again to last year!!

     

     

    As ever though our priority thoughts should be with the people hit by the floody`s (excuse my made up expression, just polite way to describe them) and  what`s to come with a trail of Low pressures to hit at the end of the week and in to next week bringing yet more misery for those already hit.

    yes March was very cold last year i agree, but the snow we did have didnt linger for very long despite the cold temperatures.  the sun is getting too strong by march for any snow to last long.  if we don't get any snow by mid february then this winter is over.

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(

    Doesnt look too "default" Posted Image zonal from a directional point of view - not exactly a mild SW is it dragging what cold it can from Iceland and the Norwegian Sea.

     

    Ian

     

    Yes at altitude that would be very interesting, prety sure your name is going to be required at the weekend for my trip up Bowfell, think i will be glad to drop down to angle tarn and mickledon, for anyone who hasnt seen snow a drive up to Kirkstone pass would see some snow and a pint in the pub ! :) happy hiking iceaxe!

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    yes March was very cold last year i agree, but the snow we did have didnt linger for very long despite the cold temperatures.  the sun is getting too strong by march for any snow to last long.  if we don't get any snow by mid february then this winter is over.

    .......in Northampton - maybe.

     

    Langdale and Ambleside Mountain Rescue collated yearly data show February to be always the highest in totals for snow  -  ok a mixture of location altitude and sometimes micro climate obviously help - I have the Bar Graph in a publication somewhere -  but the conditions are there if you want it.

     

    (Also nice Inns Beer and Log Fires to go with it - the Queens Head at Troutbeck in Kirkstone is a particular favourite :) )

    Ian

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    Yes at altitude that would be very interesting, prety sure your name is going to be required at the weekend for my trip up Bowfell, think i will be glad to drop down to angle tarn and mickledon, for anyone who hasnt seen snow a drive up to Kirkstone pass would see some snow and a pint in the pub ! Posted Image happy hiking iceaxe!

    :) Nice One -  should be interesting - avoid the Great Slab though.....!  It's safer up the Band to the 3 Tarns and turn right.

     

    Ian

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)

    So Winter will be arriving on a Thursday this year...and will be all over by Friday.

     

    Unlike many on here, I have actually seen snow falling this 'Winter'. Hell there was even an hour or so of slushy deposits which reached almost half an inch at one stage! 

     

    I have to go way back to 20 November 2013 for that though...oh the memories.

     

    Anyway, with no end in sight to the wet and windy conditions after the Easterly 'waft' on Thursday, at least we can all console ourselves with the fact we are not James Madden!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    post-15503-0-49107800-1390917418_thumb.j

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