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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    gav, not sure if it will be all that settled, but data from gefs shows a warming trend into days 10-15

    Posted Image

    western Europe along with much of England see a positive anomaly returning!

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    cfs ensemble from feb 10- 20th shows the continent under a rather positive anomaly by this stage. It would seem February is not looking keen on cold. Ext ecm ensembles back this trend, with a positive temp anomaly into Europe by day 10-15 also!

     

    Well thats a start just need to wait and see 1) if it actually happens 2) turns a bit more settled to enable the country to start and dry out

     

    :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

    so the forecasters said in the Autumn that this winter would be colder than average and drier than average.  Well they got that wrong didn't they.  Whats the point in forecasting when really you are just clutching at straws.  Even the zillion pound computers can't get it right more than a few days ahead.  Had enough of this lousy winter now and just want the summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level

    The "models" are "utter tosh" and why we/us try to forecast the weather a week away by looking at them is beyond belief ..in my 5 years of watching them they are hardly ever right at that distance so why we get so excited at what "they show" really baffles me ..trends, that's all they are good for so sit back, have a a cup of coffee and Winter will arrive when you least expect it, not when the models say it it will !

    If ever I saw a post that was contradictory in it's very nature it is this one.

     

    If you feel that way about the models then why bother coming to post on this site, why not sit back, have a cup of coffee and watch the weather forecast on TV.

    winter ''WILL ARRIVE'' when you least expect it ??

     

    If you're so sure maybe you can tell me when that will be ??? 2017 maybe ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales

    If ever I saw a post that was contradictory in it's very nature it is this one.

     

    If you feel that way about the models then why bother coming to post on this site, why not sit back, have a cup of coffee and watch the weather forecast on TV.

    winter ''WILL ARRIVE'' when you least expect it ??

     

    If you're so sure maybe you can tell me when that will be ??? 2017 maybe ??

     

    EML ..your belief in the models is misguided for sure, perhaps you can give me an example of when they were correct at a week or more away ? ..nothing contradictory about my post, I say it how it is, they can show a trend and that is all ..and I've just finished my cup of coffee thanks !

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I'm surprised there haven't been suicide attempts after reading some of the posts in here?!

    I've said it a lot but I'll say it again, I went from 1994 until 2009 before I saw lying snow here, I went 7 years without a flake falling.. I'm a total all-rounder when it comes to the weather, love snow, love storms, love gales, love torrential rain etc.. I don't get the level of disappointment I read on here, yes, it's a bit of a sod that it has been so wet & windy but what can you do? Get on with life and wait for the Winter next year, you'll see plenty more!

    I'm neither a mildie or a coldie but one thing I have noticed, coldies set themselves up for a fall very easily, just the slightest whiff of something cold on an FI chart and I get scared to look on the forum :lol:

    When it all backtracks and disappears, it turns in to royal rumble sometimes!

    The act of model watching on the WWW enhances the disappointments because back in the day, you just watched a TV forecast and hoped for the best, the interwebz has folks nitpicking to the tiniest degree, I fall foul of it too, it cannot be helped. :)

    There's obviously still time left this winter but you've also got many more Winters to come

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

    One thing for sure that I find quite amazing with these models this year.

    All signs were pointing to a nice cold spell last week

    But we all knew deep down that it was knife edge due to some fantastic posts from members on here.

    I think the point I'm trying to make is the pattern seems to be the models pick up a westerly regime then run with that for some days.

    Then a cold continental feed

    Then run with that,then the background signals flip too.

    Hope I'm not to far off the mark with that, but only last week things were looking fine for cold with background signals too.

    Now everything has flipped full circle so the cold was never going to happen like that. Just like prob the models in the last 24 hours won't either.

    Sorry if it's a total load of nonsense post.

    Just trying to get a handle on all the model flips.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    I'm surprised there haven't been suicide attempts after reading some of the posts in here?!I've said it a lot but I'll say it again, I went from 1994 until 2009 before I saw lying snow here, I went 7 years without a flake falling.. I'm a total all-rounder when it comes to the weather, love snow, love storms, love gales, love torrential rain etc.. I don't get the level of disappointment I read on here, yes, it's a bit of a sod that it has been so wet & windy but what can you do? Get on with life and wait for the Winter next year, you'll see plenty more!I'm neither a mildie or a coldie but one thing I have noticed, coldies set themselves up for a fall very easily, just the slightest whiff of something cold on an FI chart and I get scared to look on the forum :lol:When it all backtracks and disappears, it turns in to royal rumble sometimes! The act of model watching on the WWW enhances the disappointments because back in the day, you just watched a TV forecast and hoped for the best, the interwebz has folks nitpicking to the tiniest degree, I fall foul of it too, it cannot be helped. :)There's obviously still time left this winter but you've also got many more Winters to come

    Lol, you reside in Dorset so I'm surprised you didn't have to wait longer for snow.
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Mild winters, wet & windy summers
  • Location: Hampshire

    5 movies sum up this winter so far, now 66 percent over..the first waterworld, the second..from hell, the third, rain man, the fourth, singin in the rain and last but not least, gone with the wind..frankly my dear..I don't see a 522 / 510 dam.The models show a relatively colder spell this week with winds backing NE'ly on wed / thurs, some ice, frost and scattered wintry flurries, then more rain, more gales and it could start as snow further east and north.

    You missed off 28 days later, Misery and On the waterfront!
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Right, getting fed up of playing chase the dragon with snow this winter. Theres always next winter. As for now, I for one can't wait for spring to perk up and forget this so called 'winter' as quick as I can. I can quite honestly call this winter, the 'worst' winter I have ever witnessed. Come on, even 90's winters saw some snowy topplers and even some moderate easterly affairs too. This one has seen diddly squat of either!

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic

    Right, getting fed up of playing chase the dragon with snow this winter. Theres always next winter. As for now, I for one can't wait for spring to perk up and forget this so called 'winter' as quick as I can. I can quite honestly call this winter, the 'worst' winter I have ever witnessed. Come on, even 90's winters saw some snowy topplers and even some moderate easterly affairs too. This one has seen diddly squat of either!

    True, it has been a pretty crap winter.......so far. But there are 5 weeks left. That's quite a long time
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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    so far. But there are 5 weeks left. That's quite a long time

     

    and even then nature doesn't always work to our calendar/definitions eh?

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

    Well so far this winter from a coldie/snowies point of view has been complete and utter c**p.

     

    However what we have had is really just a suped up version of what is normal for the UK in winter namely a flow from somewhere in the westerly half of the compass.

     

    So far this month I have recorded 247mm of rain and the thought of a mild , wet February is utterly depressing.

     

    To be honest despite being an ardent cold and snow fan I would happily sacrifice the rest of this winter just to have an extended period of dry weather

    even if it was mild.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    I'm a dedicated Coldie but quite frankly I'm actually wishing this dismal winter away now. Anyone else looking forward to Spring and a bit of dry warm weather?

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    omg im absolutely stunned what a fail well 3-0 to the polar vortex lets hope next winter is not like this one.

    im still hopeful for feb but its a long shot.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

    The death bell tolls for winter 2013/14, the background signals, blah, blah, blah are irrelevant as that little piece of vortex anchored over Canada looks like going nowhere fast anytime soon. Piers Corbyn forecasted an exceptionally warm February and whilst I can't see that happening just yet, I do think we'll be looking at milder rather than colder weather for next month, just a hunch.

    wouldn't it be just bloody typical if we did get a bartlett in feb and he was right, anyway shocking model output again today and it seems like yet another case of the models overdoing HLB blocking before downgrading it, i won't be in any hurry to check the models when i get home tonight

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    Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

    What a joke might as well not bother looking at the charts they obviously Lie...

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    Good grief those models are bad. Even last night's snow potential ended up as nothing more than cold rain and sleet even here at ~800ft. I don't mind the storms and rain normally but not all the time, especially in winter - can't have a winter without deep cold and a covering of snow or two.

     

    Just how much wetter can this winter get?! With signs of a Euro slug high devleoping into February and trains of low pressures swinging up from the SW (probably the wettest pattern possible) there's a very real chance this will be wettest winter ever. Could make 88/89 look like 1962-1963 at this rate (slight exaggeration perhaps)

     

    And if you want a laugh: http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/443462/Winter-2013-expected-to-be-worst-since-1947-with-heavy-and-persistent-snow-forecast-for-UK

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    Posted
  • Location: cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: storms snow sun
  • Location: cardiff

    Yes remembered that well lol I am new here is there a reason way the UK is having lightning a lot and its January the hail last night was the loudest I heard for a long while

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    Yes remembered that well lol I am new here is there a reason way the UK is having lightning a lot and its January the hail last night was the loudest I heard for a long while

     

    Deep low pressures bringing unstable air. We had some good thunderstorms last January too, also from a deep depression. January has become the most thundery month of the year here, seem to get nowt in Summer these days.

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    Posted
  • Location: cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: storms snow sun
  • Location: cardiff

    Thanks just hope we get a dry spell sometime just makes u think where's are the water going to go

    Edited by dragon falls
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