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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    GFS 18Z looks wrong, does not seem progressive enough with the Atlantic on friday, ECM and UKMO have the Atlantic storming in, normally I am with GFS, but not on this one

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    Posted
  • Location: Bratislava (240m)
  • Location: Bratislava (240m)

    This is the UK, though, not Sydney - such weather is not guaranteed to last even a few days let alone the entire summer. We might well end up with a summer akin to 2007 or 2012 - a double-whammy for those of us who like cold winters and warm summers (i.e proper seasons). Our weather can be truly dreadful at times.

    It's a good job the non-summer of 2012 didn't happen in 2013, otherwise we'd be coming up to eight consecutive months of autumn. Perish the thought! Posted Image

     

    Talking of Sydney, I was there for a few days last February and I didn't see more than five minutes of sun. We were stuck indoors one day because it rained so much. Beach weather's not exactly reliable there either, though I'd definitely risk a Sydney summer over one of ours!

     

    Having missed last winter I came back to the UK in late May after seven months of heat before heading into a good summer, so I've been looking forward to snow and frost for some time - which makes this winter so far all the more galling. I wasn't expecting constant blizzards and 20ft drifts, but the lack of frosts (one in November, one so far in January) has been appalling. I was worried a poor winter might show its hand (Sod's Law and all that) but I wasn't expecting it to be as bad as it has been to date. Comparisons with most 90s/00s winters are wide of the mark - even in those mild winters there were frosty periods and crisp days with low maxima.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    I'm not sure if was ever really "there" in the first place TBH. There was never proper model agreement, and, a few juicy runs mainly from the minor models aside, it never seemed to add up to anything spectacular anyway, even if "it" did come off. I think the sense of "it's all gone wrong" comes more from the way in which people focus on any chance for cold/snow and then ramp it up TBH.

    if i could double like this i would! Spot on!
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Does the gfs 18z save the dayPosted Image

     

    It wont do, GFS put a shocker in here, expect the 00Z's to show the Atlantic storming in on Friday bringing a wet day in the south

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

    It wont do, GFS put a shocker in here, expect the 00Z's to show the Atlantic storming in on Friday bringing a wet day in the south

     A large Russian high will nearly always  kill any chance of cold for the uk.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

     A large Russian high will nearly always  kill any chance of cold for the uk.

     

    Now it will yeah, Atlantic is too strong, but mid Fem and march, when the Atlantic dies down, we may see it move west

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    There is a limit for everything Its gone on too long now believe me I'm looking forward to the sun and warmth hopefully an early taste of spring warmth will develop during February and the country can start and dry out, this low pressure can't last forever lets get it out the way now and maybe we can enjoy something better in spring

    gav, not sure if it will be all that settled, but data from gefs shows a warming trend into days 10-15

    Posted Image

    western Europe along with much of England see a positive anomaly returning!

    Posted Image

    cfs ensemble from feb 10- 20th shows the continent under a rather positive anomaly by this stage. It would seem February is not looking keen on cold. Ext ecm ensembles back this trend, with a positive temp anomaly into Europe by day 10-15 also!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Can't argue with the facts. Whist I was happy to disagree with you before, I can't on this. We need a change in the modelling before we get into the 11/15 timeframe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

    There is a limit for everything Its gone on too long now believe me I'm looking forward to the sun and warmth hopefully an early taste of spring warmth will develop during February and the country can start and dry out, this low pressure can't last forever lets get it out the way now and maybe we can enjoy something better in spring

    poor you, i haven't seen a flake of snow in a year, imagine we didn't see a sunny day for a year, you and joe public will be down the chemist every week picking up your prozac prescription

     

    really beginning to tire of model watching now but i will hang in there, it was much less stressful back in the 90s and early 00s before i discovered this site and the models, i didn't have all theses charts leading me up the garden path, even just watching bbc weather and teletext for 1 or 2 days out the forecasts were still wrong and i got no snow sometimes, so god knows why i get sucked into fantasy synoptics shown 10 days away

    Edited by Tony27
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    Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

    gav, not sure if it will be all that settled, but data from gefs shows a warming trend into days 10-15

    Posted Image

    western Europe along with much of England see a positive anomaly returning!

    Posted Image

    cfs ensemble from feb 10- 20th shows the continent under a rather positive anomaly by this stage. It would seem February is not looking keen on cold. Ext ecm ensembles back this trend, with a positive temp anomaly into Europe by day 10-15 also!

    I may well have to start planning a trip abroad very soon if that outlook is set in stone, can't stand the thought of having to wait at least another 10-13 months before seeing anymore Snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Oh well I guess the one positive is if this winter does ed up snowless then the likes of James Madden and Vantage weather services, along with the media outlets which expose the public to them should at least be finished. Well I certainly hope they will.

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    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

    well, thats it, my trip to Iceland cant come round quick enough, i need my winter snow fix, im not going to get it in jolly old England, lets hope Iceland can provide it, lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    GFS 00Z corrected, looks to have next 2 weeks nailed, no cold whatsoever and very few dry days, wednesday looking a washout

     

    still hope for cold from mid Feb to mid Apr

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

    Oh well I guess the one positive is if this winter does ed up snowless then the likes of James Madden and Vantage weather services, along with the media outlets which expose the public to them should at least be finished. Well I certainly hope they will.

     

    I would love to believe that charlatans like James Madden would be finished, but unfortunately, as long as there are people who are so incapable of exercising their own brain matter to get to the truth, that they swallow every ounce of BS he comes out with, Excreta Exacta Weather stays in business. The most disturbing thing I discovered before I was blocked from his facebook page was the number of people taking his utter rubbish as gospel.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    Your posting mean charts for the middle of feb when we aren't even in it yet ? That's ridiculous . The mean charts the other day were showing undercutting and snow , with Siberian air at t144 . Did that happen? No . So why even try and make a forecast on weather 2.5 weeks away?

     

    Yes - as riduculous as the eternal "Winter Forecasts" posted around September.

     

    Utter Tosh.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales

    Yes - as riduculous as the eternal "Winter Forecasts" posted around September.

     

    Utter Tosh.

     

    A forecast  ...is exactly that, a prediction of what the weather will do at any point in the future ..."utter tosh" ,,,how do you know ? ..do you have a TARDIS ?

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    A forecast  ...is exactly that, a prediction of what the weather will do at any point in the future ..."utter tosh" ,,,how do you know ? ..do you have a TARDIS ?

    given overall model performance this season, most forecasts 4/7 days will be/have been "utter tosh" tbh. With only small exceptions.
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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    The death bell tolls for winter 2013/14, the background signals, blah, blah, blah are irrelevant as that little piece of vortex anchored over Canada looks like going nowhere fast anytime soon. Piers Corbyn forecasted an exceptionally warm February and whilst I can't see that happening just yet, I do think we'll be looking at milder rather than colder weather for next month, just a hunch.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales

    given overall model performance this season, most forecasts 4/7 days will be/have been "utter tosh" tbh. With only small exceptions.

     

    The "models" are "utter tosh" and why we/us try to forecast the weather a week away by looking at them is beyond belief ..in my 5 years of watching them they are hardly ever right at that distance so why we get so excited at what "they show" really baffles me ..trends, that's all they are good for so sit back, have a a cup of coffee and Winter will arrive when you least expect it, not when the models say it it will !

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    Posted
  • Location: Tamworth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, fog and ice!
  • Location: Tamworth

    The "models" are "utter tosh" and why we/us try to forecast the weather a week away by looking at them is beyond belief ..in my 5 years of watching them they are hardly ever right at that distance so why we get so excited at what "they show" really baffles me ..trends, that's all they are good for so sit back, have a a cup of coffee and Winter will arrive when you least expect it, not when the models say it it will !

    As stated in a previous post I pay most attention to the Met Office and Ian. It tempers expectations. The Met have done a fantastic job this year. I used to get dragged in by fantastic Fl charts, the media and some over the top posts on here but not anymore. Anyway back to the models and it still looks a cold chilly week with some wintry showers for the lucky some. It will feel colder than it has done for most of the Winter so far Posted Image

    Edited by Potent Gust
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Morning all :)

     

    Extraordinarily downbeat mood this morning on the basis (it seems) of one set of Operational output and a Strat not shattering into fragments on request. Please remember that we are only going out as far as mid-Feb even now and it's extraordinary that after routinely castigating every forecast he has ever made, somebody has just quoted a Piers Corbyn forecast as though it were the unvarnished truth.

     

    If we don't get any snow this winter, so be it. I'm a long way from throwing in any metaphorical towel as I never thought anything much would happen before mid-February. It might do some people on here a bit of good to step back from over-analysing every scrap of output for a few days and come back with some renewed perspective.

     

    As I said on the Winter Discussion thread yesterday, many winters have had March snowfall after a mild core period and it can even snow in April under the right conditions. I do think blocking will become the key player from the middle of February onward but I don't know it will be cold or mild (Corbyn's theory presumably). My gut feeling says it may be akin to March 2013 with the block just to the north or north-west of the British Isles - too close for snow but able to feed in a much colder flow.

     

    To assume on the basis of one or two set of outputs that it's going to be a warm February and to support that theory with the forecasts from a widely-derided pundit seems absurd in the extreme. Tamara has said many times the stratospheric vortex will have one more period of dominance before it weakens finally and we are moving into that period at the end of the week. That period will last at least a fortnight but I don't know what will happen after yet but it will be different to what we have seen since early December - will it be a late winter or an early spring is the real question.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales

    As stated in a previous post I pay most attention to the Met Office and Ian. It tempers expectations. The Met have done a fantastic job this year. I used to get dragged in by fantastic F1 charts, the media and some over the top posts on here but not anymore. Anyway back to the models and it still looks a cold chilly week with some wintry showers for the lucky some. It will feel colder than it has done for most of the Winter so far Posted Image

     

    I agree PG, In my opinion it does look like we are in for some "colder" weather but certainly no "beast from the East" ..oh and BTW it's FI "Fantasy Island" not F1 which is a race involving cars !

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Morning all :) Extraordinarily downbeat mood this morning on the basis (it seems) of one set of Operational output and a Strat not shattering into fragments on request. Please remember that we are only going out as far as mid-Feb even now and it's extraordinary that after routinely castigating every forecast he has ever made, somebody has just quoted a Piers Corbyn forecast as though it were the unvarnished truth. If we don't get any snow this winter, so be it. I'm a long way from throwing in any metaphorical towel as I never thought anything much would happen before mid-February. It might do some people on here a bit of good to step back from over-analysing every scrap of output for a few days and come back with some renewed perspective. As I said on the Winter Discussion thread yesterday, many winters have had March snowfall after a mild core period and it can even snow in April under the right conditions. I do think blocking will become the key player from the middle of February onward but I don't know it will be cold or mild (Corbyn's theory presumably). My gut feeling says it may be akin to March 2013 with the block just to the north or north-west of the British Isles - too close for snow but able to feed in a much colder flow. To assume on the basis of one or two set of outputs that it's going to be a warm February and to support that theory with the forecasts from a widely-derided pundit seems absurd in the extreme. Tamara has said many times the stratospheric vortex will have one more period of dominance before it weakens finally and we are moving into that period at the end of the week. That period will last at least a fortnight but I don't know what will happen after yet but it will be different to what we have seen since early December - will it be a late winter or an early spring is the real question.

    His forecasts aren't as bad as you may think, you have to subscribe to get the details but he's no worse than any other long range forecaster if not better than all of them. As for another cold March well Piers would be right then as March is Spring.
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    His forecasts aren't as bad as you may think, you have to subscribe to get the details but he's no worse than any other long range forecaster if not better than all of them. As for another cold March well Piers would be right then as March is Spring.

     

    Well, he's not alone - the Danish Weather Service (DMI) in their latest monthly update have argued for a mild first half to February, a colder second half and a strong signal for HP to become established "to the west of Scandinavia" (their words translated) in March. Now, I concede cheerfully that may be wrong and it may not help those who want cold in the UK - the suggestions are either a NW'ly flow for Denmark (which would suggest an HP close to or over the British Isles) or a N'ly flow (which would suggest a higher latitude block).

     

    I think the next pattern change won't be to a snow-lovers paradise (I fear that ship has sailed for the snowies) but it will be to a more anticyclonic scenario which might be colder or it might be much warmer.

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