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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


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Fair enough blocking my messages but I don't see what thats has to do with blocking me via the PM system Its not as If I've even pm'd you before

Prob me not certain 100% what iam doing re account set up,still learning.think I have sorted it now. Edited by JOPRO
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What's happend to Ian Brown? Thought he would be all over the current synopsis upsetting the coldies by telling them the cold spell will fail and we are then going to have bartlett set up tha will last for all eternity!

 

I seem to recall that around the end of December into January he was liking every post that mentioned the word 'zonal' regardless of the level of analysis in it (i.e. "I think this winter through to march is going to continue to be zonal" - Ian Brown likes this), yet wasn't posting anything. I assume he'd had his posting rights revoked by this point for whatever reason.

 

Incidentally, I was looking through some of the archives at his posts pre-2009 the other day. . The past few winters must have really bothered him. He was like a alternate universe James Madden. Completely mental. Posted Image 

Edited by The Post-modern Winter
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This Winter's proving v testing if it's a decent cold spell with snow that you crave.

Just looks like a coldish wintry 'mess' come later this week and into the w/e (imby).

Frustrating...and just ramps up my desire for an early warm Spring come early March, to put this 'winter' out of its misery!

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Just watched the beeb week ahead and to say im underwheled is an understatement! No suprise the models pretty much bore out what the presenter said.

Coldest all week 3 deg on thurs before the wind and rain roll in.tue and wed where 6deg and 5 deg.

Cant see much of a winterwonderland this week with those kind of temps,what an utter disappointment.

Hacked off...

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Those famous words "still all to play for.."

 

That's when i know it's game over Posted Image

Also "underestimating the block"

 

Glad when the blocking high sods off: its kept us in no mans land for toooo long

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But..........................We still have tonight, I hope it's going to cause a few surprises come morning. We may as well enjoy the lamp post watching tonight, at least it should take the edge off the 18z's inevitable downgrade ay? :-)

Stuff winter, if cold/snow is going to become  all the more rare in the future  due to climate change I'd take it if meant warmer/drier summers became more of common occurrence.

Surely snow's become more common in the past 7 years?

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The Scandinavian high is a skid mark on the underpants of UK weather forums.

Give me a Greenland high over it anytime!

No doubt one will arrive in the Summer.

Really has been a shocking Winter IMBY so far.

I can still get wintry conditions up until the end of March so won't be throwing in the towel yet...

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Also "underestimating the block"

 

Glad when the blocking high sods off: its kept us in no mans land for toooo long

 

Or "at least it won't be mild", translated as "cold rain instead of mild rain"

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Think 1947 was possibly one slight exception :)The winter began with two periods of cold weather in December 1946 and January 1947, but the coldest period did not begin until 21 January 1947. The main cause of the cold weather was an anti-cyclone which sat over Scandinavia from 20 January. This high pressure area blocked the progression of low pressure depressions across the Atlantic Ocean and forced them to the south of the United Kingdom resulting in strong easterly winds, which brought snow to Eastern England and South East England before progressing across the entire country. This cold spell continued and by 30 January the Isles of Scilly were under 7 inches (18 cm) of snow and the overnight temperature at Writtle, Essex was −20 °C. Over January the highest recorded temperature in England and Wales was 14 °C and the minimum was −21 °C.

I prefer this as I was alive to experience it...

post-9331-0-51332100-1390756271_thumb.jp

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The Scandinavian blocking high can bring cold snowy weather if it is positioned in the right area to bring cold air over from Russia to the British Isles, in which case we can either get sunshine and snow showers off a direct easterly (due to the cold air the 850hPa level contrasting with the relatively warm North Sea) or frontal snowfalls when Atlantic weather systems stall against the blocking high, as famously happened in early February 1996.  However, for such wintry conditions to last for more than a few days, we typically need some sort of high pressure ridging towards Greenland/Iceland after the initial easterly blast, or otherwise we generally get a quick return to south-westerlies (albeit with a brief bout of frontal snow for some in the transition) or mixing out of the cold air from the south-east.

 

In most cases though we get insufficient ridging of high pressure to the north and/or low pressure in southern Europe and so we get south-easterlies while the cold Russian air is locked to the north-east and east of the British Isles.  I expect this to again be the main issue next week- we are forecast to have an east to north-easterly flow for a brief period but the airmass source is a long way south and the convection over the North Sea will most likely produce stratocumulus.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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This Winter's proving v testing if it's a decent cold spell with snow that you crave.Just looks like a coldish wintry 'mess' come later this week and into the w/e (imby).Frustrating...and just ramps up my desire for an early warm Spring come early March, to put this 'winter' out of its misery!

 

The models do paint a dismal wet mucky picture at the moment full of days of 4-6c and frequent rain. It might as well be blowing a SW gale as it would dry things out quicker.

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Blimey...when will the trough influence end!?

 

All I have seen is trough after trough wanting to push into &/or stall over the UK right from start to finish on the model runs for ages now

 

I love snow...and the fact we are not really that far from a cold snowy pattern means I won't write February (and beyond) yet. However, I'd settle for a frosty high pressure slapped over us for a while now to be honest...

 

If we do end up back in an unsettled westerly flow I feel for flooded areas. It will also be interesting to see where we go from there...

Edited by Chris K
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Well, i'm in a moaning mood today, i just came across this

 

'Mini Tornado' Sweeps Through Parts Of Britain

http://news.sky.com/story/1201373/mini-tornado-sweeps-through-parts-of-britain

 

Grrrrrrrr !! No such thing as a Mini Tornado

 

You either have a tornado (the real deal, full size baby) or you don't

 

The phrase 'mini tornado' 'freak tornado' should be banned !!

Edited by stevofunnelcl
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We know from the history of weather in this country that patterns and weather types can hang around or keep repeating and coming back for long periods of times. It's not common but does happen.

 

Winter 1963 is a famous example for snow and cold that kept coming back. Summer 1995 and that hot, dry spell that never felt like it was going to end springs to mind. We're experiencing one now with wet and windy weather. All of these events have negative effects on people's way of life. (Although I remember a lot of smiling faces during summer 95!)

 

We're known across the World for having changeable weather...but now and again, that description of us can be very inaccurate!

 

Things don't look good for the medium to long term right now...and the professional view is that the Atlantic will be back quicker than we would like. Doesn't mean the hunt for cold (for those involved in the hunt) should end though. By next Saturday, there will still be the whole of February left to go.

Edited by Gord
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This Winter is shaping out to be worse for settling snow than Winter 11-12. In that Winter we had a covering one morning in middle of December and then a heavier fall on the 4th February and that was it all Winter.

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This Winter is shaping out to be worse for settling snow than Winter 11-12. In that Winter we had a covering one morning in middle of December and then a heavier fall on the 4th February and that was it all Winter.

 

That winter, we were within touching distance of some very deep cold though. Would only have taken a slight shift. Remember all the news reports coming in from over Europe?

 

Means nothing for us in the end though...as the net result on the ground was the same, so I get where you're coming from.

Edited by Gord
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This Winter is shaping out to be worse for settling snow than Winter 11-12. In that Winter we had a covering one morning in middle of December and then a heavier fall on the 4th February and that was it all Winter.

Cant argue there as it really is turning into a mare if it's cold and snow you like, mind you Gaz it's not been a good one for the mildies either really with far too much wind and rain on a daily basis. I'll be glad to see the back of this winter and hopefully we get a warm dry spring so we can all dry out from this wretched winter.
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Well Steve Murr has thrown in the towel on mod thread tonight. And along with piers Corbyns PDF file for feb think it's finally time to put winter to bed. It's been rubbish roll on spring.

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Just doesn't seem to be happening does it.

 

Have noticed signs creeping into the models lately after around day 7 - GFS, ECM, GEM today for example - of the dreaded Euro high with low pressure systems running up from the SW. Let's hope that doesn't happen if just for those suffering from flooding as it's a pattern that usually brings bucketloads of rain.

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