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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Did it snow in Jan 1987? 

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    It was pants here as it was mostly those from Central England eastwards who saw much snow, now Feb 96, 79 are more like it.
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Oh the dama's.... Just peeped into the model output and the difference in tone and mood since around 6:00pm...

    Elation after the UKMO-gm and now doom and gloom...

    Edited by TSNWK
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    Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

    And some are already looking for the end of a possible (not potential..) cold-snap/spell? no you couldn't make it up lol.

     

    As for the mild vs cold rants oh dear..

     

    Posted Image

     

    Chill it's Friday..let see what the updates bring?

     

    Posted Image

    i think the coldie in the blue coat is gonna win that fight

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    Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

    snow causes misery to 95%. exactly how did you come up with such a random percentage as this?  for heavens sake, we are lucky if we get snow on a few days a year so im sure most people will just enjoy it while it lasts.  It's not as if we get it for months on end.  Work can wait if it gets that bad....which is very rarely does.

    spot on, it's not as if it snows day after day like it rains day after day, it does my head when joe public and mildies on here moan and whine about snow as if it is a common occurrence when it isn't, someone should tell joe public how many times the models downgrade cold and snow charts, they are lucky we don't see snow that often at all they don't know how easy they have it, things could be far worse 

    Edited by Tony27
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    UKMO same as last nights 12Z, but not confident its right, ECMWF the worst for cold, gives midlands no snow, GFS i usually believe not good, give a bit of leading edge snow on friday for low levels south

     

    ECM probably right here, and I do not normally rate ECM

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Yeah of course it does.  But not to the same extent as ice and snow does.  Floods are a more localised event.  Snow & ice are a widespread nuisance.  

    During my lifetime I've seen flooding events all over the country which are very widespread. Frankly the biggest problem the UK has with cold and ice is it's complete lack of preparation for it, there is no need for mass chaos if the councils treat the roads properly and people drive carefully. Most incidents are completely avoidable. Whilst flooding, it just happens and frankly there is little people can do about it.

    In the end the one human negative effect of winter is the cold and people struggling to heat their homes, but it's a tiny pimple compare to having your house flooded or having structural damage due to high winds.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Every time I see Shannon entropy mentioned, I keep thinking of Del Shannon for some reason

    One of his song titles seem appropriate at times

    Keep Searchin' , what a lot of people who have wanted dry/cold/snowy weather have been doing this winter

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    Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy winters
  • Location: Kent

    Piers Corbyn. FEB ( Spring like weather THE WINTER THAT WASN'T. Exceptionally dry/mild/warm for the south ).

    Into hybernation now, see you all in December!!!!!!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Snow causes misery and disruption to 95% of the country and 95% of the population if surveyed would tell you as much.  It's fun for kids ( Although i hated it as a child ) and at a stretch the lucky few who's day to day lives are not affected by it due to not being able to work etc.  

     

    it might be a random figure, but its pretty accurate. only on here and other weather forums do the minority come out to play the snow spotting game. in real life i dont know anyone who wants snow, or cold, thats just what the seasonal crowd on these forums would have you believe.

     

    stick to your guns, you are spot on.

     

    right im off until the snowmad have left and some decent, unbiased, weather discussion can take place.

    Every time I see Shannon entropy mentioned, I keep thinking of Del Shannon for some reasonOne of his song titles seem appropriate at timesKeep Searchin' , what a lot of people who have wanted dry/cold/snowy weather have been doing this winterhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnSpWU8utw4

     

    excellant track!

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey

    it might be a random figure, but its pretty accurate. only on here and other weather forums do the minority come out to play the snow spotting game. in real life i dont know anyone who wants snow, or cold, thats just what the seasonal crowd on these forums would have you believe.

     

    stick to your guns, you are spot on.

     

    right im off until the snowmad have left and some decent, unbiased, weather discussion can take place.

     

    excellant track!

    and why not - it is winter !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

    Some promise at last. However, lots of cautionary tweets about expecting any cold from various professionals. They are saying it's still the rain that will cause problems for areas away from the hills rather than snow over the next week.

    Bit disappointing but good to keep feet on the ground for now. At least we are looking at possibly the prospect of something a little more interesting. Think I'll just ride it out this week and see what happens.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Turning a good deal colder next week across the british isles according to bbc news 24 weather..this is hot off the press folks.Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Mild winters, wet & windy summers
  • Location: Hampshire

    Turning a good deal colder next week across the british isles according to bbc news 24 weather..this is hot off the press folks.Posted Image

    I wish they would not keep changing the outlook with each presenter. 11.30 bbc news 24 said it would turn a little colder!
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    I wish they would not keep changing the outlook with each presenter. 11.30 bbc news 24 said it would turn a little colder!

     

    There are many a Forecaster with Mild bias, we all know who they are,.. one ends in Bett !

     

    But then again it has to turn a "little colder" before we get "very cold" does it not ? Hammond is our man Posted Image

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    Some promise at last. However, lots of cautionary tweets about expecting any cold from various professionals. They are saying it's still the rain that will cause problems for areas away from the hills rather than snow over the next week.Bit disappointing but good to keep feet on the ground for now. At least we are looking at possibly the prospect of something a little more interesting. Think I'll just ride it out this week and see what happens.

    You're exactly right, but when you advise of the caution on here you get shot down. All the evidence from professionals I've seen, away from the forums, advises any snow in the coming week is going to be a high ground only event. I hope they're wrong though. I'd love a whiteout. Edited by Paul_1978
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    There are many a Forecaster with Mild bias, we all know who they are,.. one ends in Bett !

     

     

    and another ends in GibbsPosted Image

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Mild winters, wet & windy summers
  • Location: Hampshire

    There are many a Forecaster with Mild bias, we all know who they are,.. one ends in Bett !

     

    But then again it has to turn a "little colder" before we get "very cold" does it not ? Hammond is our man Posted Image

    They all work for the same organisation so there should be continuity in the forecast every half hour whoever the presenter is!
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Looks like the cold will persist right through next week now according to the met office outlook

     

    Monday to Wednesday:

     

    Turning colder across all areas with showers or longer spells of rain that may turn wintry in places, particularly across northeastern areas. Winds often remaining strong, especially through Monday.

     

    Thursday 30 Jan 2014 to Saturday 8 Feb 2014:

     

    Cold on Thursday, with wintry showers in eastern and central areas easing. Then dry, but frosty overnight with patchy fog and ice. Further rain, perhaps preceded by some temporary snow, follows on Friday with a risk of coastal gales. It then stays colder than normal through the weekend, with a risk of frost and ice at night, although the risk of wintry precipitation will mainly be restricted to the north. Westerly winds then return by next week bringing further outbreaks of rain, and perhaps some hill snow in the north

     

    So the met are certainly going with UKMO this morning it would appear

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    They all work for the same organisation so there should be continuity in the forecast every half hour whoever the presenter is!

     

    Correct.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    They all work for the same organisation so there should be continuity in the forecast every half hour whoever the presenter is!

    there is a large grain of truth in what pm said.

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Well if due south is correct about what he is saying about piers Corbyns forecast for feb then think we can forget winter this yr now. But if he is near the mark at least the south can dry out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Surrey
  • Location: Reigate Surrey

    Looks like the cold will persist right through next week now according to the met office outlook

     

    Monday to Wednesday:

     

    Turning colder across all areas with showers or longer spells of rain that may turn wintry in places, particularly across northeastern areas. Winds often remaining strong, especially through Monday.

     

    Thursday 30 Jan 2014 to Saturday 8 Feb 2014:

     

    Cold on Thursday, with wintry showers in eastern and central areas easing. Then dry, but frosty overnight with patchy fog and ice. Further rain, perhaps preceded by some temporary snow, follows on Friday with a risk of coastal gales. It then stays colder than normal through the weekend, with a risk of frost and ice at night, although the risk of wintry precipitation will mainly be restricted to the north. Westerly winds then return by next week bringing further outbreaks of rain, and perhaps some hill snow in the north

     

    So the met are certainly going with UKMO this morning it would appear

    I see absolutely nothing to get excited about with regards to anyone looking for cold south of the Midlands. Here in the South East I would say absolute zero chance of anything snowy. Frankly any talk of snow to me seems like hope only. As for comments in the model thread of snow fest there are obviously a lot of people who have not a clue about the models. I've been on this site for years I am almost tempted to write off this winter. With the strongest jet for years there seems little hope to me of anything materialising especially if this latest spell just gets swept away as I suspect it will by  a westerly regime. Looks to me like tonnes of cold rain . sorry folks !. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

    Can't say I'm bothered which model is correct this morning to be honest as none of them have snow for my area next week, just more rain!

    If I was in for a chance of snow this coming week though I'd be preying the ukmo had the correct solution, it is a bonus that this model has the best outcome compared to ecm/gfs as I can recall on many occasions in the past when it was those two showing cold and the ukmo was having none of it and it turned out to be correct

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