Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 2.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    Thats not a great update from the meto is it? I really was expecting a more wintry update than that! Posted Image

    Thats what i was thinking, with all the hype about the cold in here i was expecting better than that! Maye the North East seeing snow but for the most of the UK just cooler rain. Not impressed!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey

    Checking the BBC weather for London has a max temp of anything from -1 to +10 ! presume that shows that the block could still hold till weekend, but thats one heck of a spread

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    Thats what i was thinking, with all the hype about the cold in here i was expecting better than that! Maye the North East seeing snow but for the most of the UK just cooler rain. Not impressed!

     

    The MetO do not ramp! What don't folk understand...

    why rely so heavily on what they say in these updates. Go with Aiden, he's got a ' good feeling' after all!!

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Yes i think we are aware that you would LOVE it to go pear shaped bobby...

     

    No, there's nothing more I'd like than a blizzard outside right now and a foot of snow and sub-zero temps. When snow is on the way/is snowing I get excited like a little kid. But we're long way of being remotely confident of anything like that yet.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wootton, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Disruptive
  • Location: Wootton, Bedfordshire

    Yes, that forecast went all wrong really - But was this due to underestimating the strength of the block out East? Maybe so if you look at how the low has quickly in the wrong direction they were saying...

     

    It's not often the Met Office are wrong to be honest, but with pretty much 85% agreement of a cold and potentially snowy spell next week, they don't mention anything, and until they do, I usher caution. Lets not forget, they do have access to a much broader scale of charts than we do... And they are Professionals.

     

    Which is proabbly why they will be more cautious in their forcasts over the few hours/days

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

     

    So, having trawled through the Mod disc thread it seems like it's the Meto v Some of NW's 'big guns'. Difference of opinion on next week.Well, The Meto have been pretty much spot on, imo, this Winter.Who's gonna be proved correct come this time next week?

    The 'Stand-Off' continues today, i see.
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm & Sunny
  • Location: West Sussex

     The 'Stand-Off' continues today, i see.

    So it would appear. Woe betide anyone to disagree with them or the Mighty Mr. Murr! 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    The hopes and expectations are building to high levels in the model thread, if this goes pearshaped it's going to be some show.

     

    Posted Image

    I agree. Some utterly ridiculous ramping in the main thread at the moment (IMO of course). The reason the met office are not warning about blizzards, sub zero days and ice flows off the coast is because its simply not supported in the output. I'm avoiding the main thread at present as anyone disagreeing with snowmaggedon is likely to get flamed big style.

    I hope I'm wrong, but I just can't see it. I think if it comes the main event will actually be in another couple of weeks. Mid Feb.

    Even if it did snow next week it will be a miracle if it lies given soil temps. Certainly not ruling out some snow almost anywhere, but anything long lasting?

    Hopefully Fergie will inject some sense later on.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Yes i think we are aware that you would LOVE it to go pear shaped bobby...

    The proof as always will be in eating.This sums up the problem from my perspective. The Russian high is not really our friend tbh as its a warm set up for Europe.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=0&map=0&archive=0Lets hope those of us who remain cynics are proved wrong. My forecast is as follows (in order)> lots of ramping> disappointment (me included)> Anger> acceptance> lots of 'winter is over posts'> Finally, something much better in mid FebEdit: Below is the ECM 240 850 chart. No deep cold here!http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0Jason> Edited by Jason M
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    I hope I'm wrong, but I just can't see it. I think if it comes the main event will actually be in another couple of weeks. Mid Feb.Even if it did snow next week it will be a miracle if it lies given soil temps. Certainly not ruling out some snow almost anywhere, but anything long lasting?Hopefully Fergie will inject some sense later on.e

     

    Jason, agreed; there is some scope for transient snow into nxt week, but what with the Atlantic in seemingly no mood to play ball, a return to the Z word seems likely. Hopefully mid feb can deliver, as you suggest. But I must admit even that looks uncertain... LR models not seeing blocking into Feb. Of course, this can change!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

    don't like Darren Betts presenting the BBC weather.  He always prefers mild weather.  Now when Thomasz Shafernacker and Rob Mc Elwee used to present it they used to make it really entertaining and exciting.... and it usually snowed.  Darren Betts is a jinx.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Lets hope those of us who remain cynics are proved wrong. My forecast is as follows (in order)> lots of ramping> disappointment (me included)> Anger> acceptance> lots of 'winter is over posts'> Finally, something much better in mid FebJason>

     

    If you look for the truth in the models, you'll still get snow if it's going to snow! - and the truth. Wishful thinking that it's going to snow - you'll find neither the truth nor maybe snow, and then in the end only dissapointment.

     

    To paraphrase CS Lewis...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The Met Office / BBC are not expecting anything too cold next week highs in the north of 4c and 6c in the south, the wind will make it feel colder in the north with a chance of some snow in eastern Scotland and North east England the coldest air out east isn't likely to make it over here hence why the temperatures are not expected to drop much lower than 4c

     

    Its probably going to be a cold snap is how Darren Bett describes it "a few days early next week" signs are milder air will come back in from the Atlantic bringing more rain and the threat of more flooding

     

    Its " a tricky situation" early next week according to Darren I get the feeling they are still not 100% certain on how things will pan out during the first part of the week minor changes to the models could make big differences to what we may or may not get

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey

    According to Darren Bett, a cold snap at the beginning of the week lasting a few days only, then milder at towards end of week.

    Woohoo...not. Have a feeling there could be some severe backtracking from the models tonight, so could get ugly in there

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    The Met Office / BBC are not expecting anything too cold next week highs in the north of 4c and 6c in the south, the wind will make it feel colder in the north with a chance of some snow in eastern Scotland and North east England the coldest air out east isn't likely to make it over here hence why the temperatures are not expected to drop much lower than 4c Its probably going to be a cold snap is how Darren Bett describes it "a few days early next week" signs are milder air will come back in from the Atlantic bringing more rain and the threat of more flooding Its " a tricky situation" early next week according to Darren I get the feeling they are still not 100% certain on how things will pan out during the first part of the week minor changes to the models could make big differences to what we may or may not get

    SIGNS being a rather large assumption atm .however there are growing signs atm of stagnation of westerly returns. ? Im bored of having say this, but 12z SHOULD shed at very least a more realistic prognosis in this situation. ?
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North Leeds 130m ASL
  • Location: North Leeds 130m ASL

    The Met Office / BBC are not expecting anything too cold next week highs in the north of 4c and 6c in the south, the wind will make it feel colder in the north with a chance of some snow in eastern Scotland and North east England the coldest air out east isn't likely to make it over here hence why the temperatures are not expected to drop much lower than 4c

     

    Its probably going to be a cold snap is how Darren Bett describes it "a few days early next week" signs are milder air will come back in from the Atlantic bringing more rain and the threat of more flooding

     

    Its " a tricky situation" early next week according to Darren I get the feeling they are still not 100% certain on how things will pan out during the first part of the week minor changes to the models could make big differences to what we may or may not get

    Incorrect - they were MAXIMUM daytime temps, of which will be Major City centres

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Don't fret, if the Scandi high fails to deliver next week then there is always a 2nd chance in February;

    post-12721-0-79715700-1390574782_thumb.jpost-12721-0-42846600-1390574784_thumb.j

    ;) ;)

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London

    According to Darren Bett, a cold snap at the beginning of the week lasting a few days only, then milder at towards end of week.

    Woohoo...not. Have a feeling there could be some severe backtracking from the models tonight, so could get ugly in there

     

    Ian Ferguson posted on the model thread think the day before yesterday saying the Meto then had low confidence in the 1-6 day forecast but high confidence of the 6-15 day forecast of a return to zonal flow (I think westerly but not neccesarily mild westerly) so nobody should be surprised if this is what happens as it is the forecast.

     

    Unfortunatly I don't think the right ingredients / building blocks are in the right place for a proper wintery outbreak at the moment. They are there but just not where they should be (ie cold pool in Europe for example).

     

    I hope we don't have a snowless winter, that would be sad :-(

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wallasey Village, Wirral. 15.7m ASL. 1 mile from the seafront
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Heatwaves and Disruptive Heavy Snowfall any other time
  • Location: Wallasey Village, Wirral. 15.7m ASL. 1 mile from the seafront

    We've got some fabulous posters in the MOD working with far less data than the Met O. If it does all go pear shaped I for one will feel very sad for those who spend so much time compiling those informative posts. I wish we had access to the same data as the Met O :-(

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny
  • Location: South Cheshire

    Really looking forward to the time where the models backtrack and the cold and snow disappears.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

    what do you mean exactly?  the cold and snow were never here in the first place.

    Really looking forward to the time where the models backtrack and the cold and snow disappears.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire

    Really looking forward to the time where the models backtrack and the cold and snow disappears.

    if it's stressing you out that much, logout and come back in late spring..

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...