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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


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I am getting a bit confused, despite all these apparent upgrades I can't see much snow on all these charts. Living in the SE I probably have little chance of snow anyway, but to my untrained eyes I can't even see much elsewhere apart from Scotland & possibly NE Eng,and even then there does't seem much to get excited about.

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This winter is like pulling teeth. Thats it, feel better now.

Yeah your right its been a disapointing and  depressing winter thus far. However we were due a mild and possibly snow less winter  and i doubt next year will be as bad. I think the term grin and bear it springs to mind there is always next year and the year after.

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So, having trawled through the Mod disc thread it seems like it's the Meto v Some of NW's 'big guns'. Difference of opinion on next week.

Well, The Meto have been pretty much spot on, imo, this Winter.

Who's gonna be proved correct come this time next week?

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So, having trawled through the Mod disc thread it seems like it's the Meto v Some of NW's 'big guns'. Difference of opinion on next week.Well, The Meto have been pretty much spot on, imo, this Winter.Who's gonna be proved correct come this time next week?

i would put my money on the pro's but even they can be caught out.

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COME ON weather gods i'm pleading with you, you've made us suffer with crud all winter now start giving some massive upgrade's starting with taking Sunday's storm 100's miles further south last minute.

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So, having trawled through the Mod disc thread it seems like it's the Meto v Some of NW's 'big guns'. Difference of opinion on next week.Well, The Meto have been pretty much spot on, imo, this Winter.Who's gonna be proved correct come this time next week?

Looks like it will be cold wet and miserable for most of us from mid next week. Some snow up north and at higher elevations but no real sustained wintery blast. Met Office have obviously got more information at their disposal than the NW big guns and that's why they seem pretty sure about westerlies returning by the end of next week.
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Looks like it will be cold wet and miserable for most of us from mid next week. Some snow up north and at higher elevations but no real sustained wintery blast. Met Office have obviously got more information at their disposal than the NW big guns and that's why they seem pretty sure about westerlies returning by the end of next week.

The company i work for is a bottled water distribution company and subscribe to one of the MetO commercial outputs.. This is sent to our H/Q in Glasgow and then information is passed on to individual depots. I dont know in what form this is when it gets sent to our H/Q but at depot level we recieve tailored potential route disruption on a grade of 1-10 for the usual wind,rain,ice and snow. I only have up to next Thursday but 4 out of the 6 routes we run in the NE have a level 5 snow disruption warning for next Thursday !!  

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Looks like it will be cold wet and miserable for most of us from mid next week. Some snow up north and at higher elevations but no real sustained wintery blast. Met Office have obviously got more information at their disposal than the NW big guns and that's why they seem pretty sure about westerlies returning by the end of next week.

I'm not so sure, but must admit surprised at how bullish they were on a westerly zonal return by end of next week. Reckon the next update will still repeat that but put it back a few days..interesting times for sure

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Be clear about the comments - winter ends on 1st March so that is the call that is being made. "Silly?" No.. because the call is supported by evidence that suggests we are not quite going to reach the pot at the end of the rainbow because background stratospheric factors are not quite supportive (yet).

 

Yes - it can snow in March. But March is Spring and March 13 was exceptional. Many coldies of course, including me, will take it if it is the best we can eek out. April is no good for the south for a proper cold spell. 

 

There is still a window of opportunity through early to mid Feb... but for me it is a sign of just how poor this winter has been that folk are so excited by the charts this morning. They are better than at any point this winter so far - but they are not indicating a period of sustained cold.

Stop being so pedantic. & FYI my comment was with regard to both sides. MODELS seem to be taken as gospel on here.

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It's looking very optimistic so far, im definitely going to be lurking in the forum over this one. One thing I do know is that there's a burger van to my east at work, they also do bacon and I expect to smell alot of bacon next week while im getting heavy snow :)

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Yes - you do often have a strong scandy high in the latter stages of winter and it can quite happily coexist with a raging atlantic. But I have been watching the weather long enough now to know that when the atlantic is as strong as it continues to be at present then the retrogression of that high is blocked. Snow in Norway, rain in the UK. The finely balanced scenario which brings stalling fronts over the UK running up into embedded or advancing cold (Feb 96) is not looking possible yet under the current setup.

 

Enough posts from me today - I have probably annoyed 95% of the readers on here with gloomy analysis... but in the end I can only call it as I see it. I had felt that late Jan and into Feb would deliver for the UK this year but for me the vortex has shown itself to be too strong. I guess in 5 weeks time we can dissect the winter properly and I will very happily eat humble pie with a covering of Dartmoor snow if I am seeing the next 2 weeks incorrectly.

You are probably right, however there is still a risk that it may all turn out the way most on here want it to despite what is against it!!!

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Hi Catacol-

 

I think your wrong, especially when using a 240 chart to support the snow that comes at 168/192 & 216.- seems odd you choose a non representative chart to support your theory

 

However using the stratosphere via the ECM as a forecasting tool for the troposphere at day 8/9/10 & then micro managing that to the UK is less than pointless.

 

Even at the far out reaches of the ECM at 168 /192 /216 on the ECM let say they were to verify

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012400/ECU1-168.GIF?24-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012400/ECU1-192.GIF?24-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012400/ECU1-216.GIF?24-12

 

The uppers covering the 72 hours are at their HEIGHT around 192 when the -1c isotherm gets into the extreme south, so for there possibility of back to rain, but away from there its all snow im afraid.

 

As semi proof of this- go to the operational run temps above ^^ note the -6c temp on the operational at the end- its reacting to snow cover for the T2M ... it wouldnt do this if it was indicating no snow.

 

 

S

PS at 240 the ECM is mouth water as its indicating a retrograde high to Svalbard & more deep cold coming SW into Europe....

 

 

 

 

Hi Steve, just for clarification how far south is the extreme south?

Edited by Snowman31
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Latest met office update sounds pathetic! Not in line with the latest model runs!! What do they know that we don't Steve M?

 

They know much more than we do!

But, nowadays they never get excited or start to ramp until they are absolutely sure about the outcome (+72 hours)

Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure they're onto something that will once again disappoint all the coldies on here.

Further heartbreak to come I'm afraid!

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The hopes and expectations are building to high levels in the model thread, if this goes pearshaped it's going to be some show.

 

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

Can imagine Jon saying 'oh dear, was that it... is it over' ....

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