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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


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Here's a couple of more irritating things you hear....

 

"Its not been a mild winter"....erm +2.4c above average January (so far) following an above average December! Good job its not mild then eh?

 

"Saving on heating bills"....hmmm losing money on replacing ridge tiles...repairing roof leaks from the insane rainy spells...replacing damaged fence panels...so sort of cancels that one out.

Agree with the bit about the mild winter but millions will have saved on heating bills without the other problems you mentioned.

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My first post in this thread - but I have to admit that today I am gloomy and fed up with it all. The cross polar ridging for the end of next week that suggested the beginning of height rises over Greenland as part of an MJO in phase 7 to 8 is now fading. UKMO MJO forecast has it drifting back to phase 6 f*f*s as we enter Feb, and that will reinforce the atlantic dross. Cold over the eastern US will once again enhance cyclogenesis and by the time we actually see the tropospheric effects of warming assaults on the vortex it will be March and we will be hoping for a bit of sunshine and warmth and not iron grey skies with cold and dry nothingness from the east. March 13 delivered not a flake for my part of Somerset - I dont want easterlies in March.

 

I'm praying that the EC32 this week has it wrong... and that Fergie's boss down at the Met who spoke of a potential tipping point next week gets the uncertainty in the pattern correct so that we get a sudden and abrupt change. These have happened before though they are not frequent. If not then this winter will rival the dreadful winter of around 11/12 years ago when a local weather nut round here noted that it rained at some point in the day for 100 consecutive days through winter. I gave up keeping my suits dry that year as I walked to work,,,

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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i really can't remember a winter as bad as this one for years, in terms of lack of frost and snow.  Even 2006, which was a relatively mild winter had a couple of snow days.  Yes, we could have snow in March and April, but for me, that is too late and all we end up with is a slushy mess which lasts a few hours if at all... and that's if we're lucky to get any at all.  Why can't this country get cold and snow in the months when it is meant to snow (December to February).  come the summer it will be cool and damp too i have no doubt.

It's highly annoying, isn't it? Whilst I wouldn't want quite the same climate as New York or Chicago I do wish we could have a little more of a continental climate here, with proper seasons, some definite cold and snow in winter and some proper warmth and decent thunderstorms in summer. Some years we get lucky, others we fail miserably. I'm really bored with weather here at the moment, it's basically a depressing perpetual Autumn! Thank God we managed to snap up a fabulous appartment in Spain a few months ago....when that stupid Greenland High appears in June, I know where I'll be hehe!
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After my optimism regarding a pattern change later this week, it now looks increasingly likely that the jet will be fired-up again and the Atlantic will be dominant for the foreseeable. More relatively mild, wet & windy weather on the cards for most of us. This winter is becomming unbelieveable!

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Don't know what anyone else thought but today definately did NOT feel like a January day. When the sun was out and I was out of the breeze, it was a very pleasant feeling...almost like a mild March day.

it also looked very bright as well even at about 3pm, it always seems to look lighter when it's a mild dry day, though that might just be me who thinks that, plus i have lost count the amount of times i have left the windows open this winter i have them open right now again and im sitting here with no t shirt on after a shower, technically its not warm but 9c feels warm in mid winter

Edited by Tony27
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The MOD thread is terrible atm. Needs better mod moderation.

 

is Purga a pest? generally right though, no cold for foreseeable future (south) still hoping for cold from mid Feb

 

agree carl, warm one today

Edited by IrememberAtlantic252
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Just been looking over on mr Corbyns twitter page again. And reading a few comments from his subscribers and it seems that he is going for a mild feb. And it's sounds like his big headline of most important forecast since dec 2010 seems like abit of a sales tactic. Just wondering if anyone knows what he is actually forecasting.

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I've just about written this winter off. So much so I've sat in sun drinking ice cold beers today with temps around 20'C....Though I am in Lanzerote. :)

This the moans and ramps thread, so unless you are moaning because you only have 20°C in a foreign country, you have posted in the wrong thread.

Also a banter thread, I was gloating and also saying what I've said for past 6 or more weeks that we're going to have a snow free winter in large parts of UK. I'd love to see a good Snowfall but we were due a winter like one we're experiencing.
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You know all this model watching for non existent cold can be exhausting. But you know, it makes any snow we do get all the more exciting I think. Even if we don't get any this season, next year will be even more exciting!

Blimey I must have become a lot more patient in recent years :p

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Hang about: if the very same system was offering a foot of snow, it would be discussed ad infinitum on this particular thread, without any query whatsoever and no hints at such postings getting 'bounced'.The polarisation of supposedly 'valid' model discussion / interest / extremes solutions merely being those offering cold/snow is, in my view, rather wearying and surely spurious (I hope the mods will agree). Last year, a 'hunt for cold' thread was specifically started to ensure focal point for the cold-seeking stuff; surely this thread is to discuss ALL wx types from the models in winter with EQUAL validity... not least when the threat of very wet weather is showing loud and clear in reliable modelling and is of great interest to a number of people on the forum, including, I have no doubt, coldies with wider meteorological interests/appreciation.I fully get that various people want snow and are seeking for it across all output - that's wholly reasonable. But you will have to appreciate those who are rightly posting about the here-and-now issues of pressing weather /model interest, which happen to be heavy rain events likely to cause considerable disruption.

A true weather enthusiast will find excitement in many types of weather,not just the white stuff or summertime storms. This winter for me has been just what the docter ordered after several years of sluggish Atlantic driven weather,to see a raging jet stream has been supurb.That said,i'm ready for a change to cold/snow now!, but Sunday/Mondays next storm system excites me as much as hunting down blocking to our North. Edited by sunnijim
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i might go to the USA to get my snow fix, but no doubt it will be mild when i get there and the UK will be having a brutal cold snowy spell typically, im getting model fatigue now maybe i should stop model watching and then great charts will suddenly show up at T72 T96 when im not looking at them

Edited by Tony27
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It might be to cold out there soon for a Feast ice lolly... lol!!

post-11361-0-42771500-1390449301_thumb.p

 

 

But maybe could have a FEASTERLY  feasterly's are very tasty they come from the east and taste of snow plenty available soon...

 

So a tasty snowy feasterl'y could arrive soon....

 

post-11361-0-24686200-1390449511_thumb.p

 

 

(image edit took a while lol had to copy edit bits of text!)

 

 

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Gibby this, Gibby that on the Mod thread - leave the guy alone. Seems to happen every winter when his interpretation doesn't match coldies expectations. Funny thing is he'll probably be correct !

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Gibby this, Gibby that on the Mod thread - leave the guy alone. Seems to happen every winter when his interpretation doesn't match coldies expectations. Funny thing is he'll probably be correct !

Ah no he's wrong - Metcheck (who are never wrong of course) have London down for almost 12cm on 1st feb ! haha

post-11460-0-20829500-1390478382_thumb.p

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People are a bit worried about Ian Fergusson's message in the main model thread re "90% chance of Westerlies" returning.

 

However this is quantified by saying that there is high uncertainty (ie the Shannon Entropy rating), plus this only applies til Tuesday.

 

Given that today is Thursday, that's only a trend for 5 days. (ie T+120).

 

He goes onto say that Weds onwards is "an open book re wintriness", so therefore it would seem to be all up for grabs from T+120 onwards - let's see how it goes!

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People are a bit worried about Ian Fergusson's message in the main model thread re "90% chance of Westerlies" returning.

 

However this is quantified by saying that there is high uncertainty (ie the Shannon Entropy rating), plus this only applies til Tuesday.

 

Given that today is Thursday, that's only a trend for 5 days. (ie T+120).

 

He goes onto say that Weds onwards is "an open book re wintriness", so therefore it would seem to be all up for grabs from T+120 onwards - let's see how it goes!

 Hmm, just to quote my own post, Ian has provided a further update, so it would seem that a broadly zonal pattern is favoured. Bummer.

 

"UKMO assessment on 00z suites as previous. Snow NE especially Tues-Thurs etc; perhaps spell of snow W/NW later in week as westerly mobility returns. Low confidence on detail/timing with marked entropy spike d8-9. Thereafter high confidence on return to broadly zonal pattern "as seen so far this winter" albeit with around 10% EPS/MOGREPS showing varied interruptions through deep lows etc, some with easterly components. Anyway, detail Tues-Sat trickiest but UKMO not currently concerned re major snow threat for e.g. southern England (but it is too far away anyway to be given much detailed attention). In any case, all their focus on disruptive weather is tomorrow and Sunday, understandably".
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Posted (edited) · Hidden by Bobby, January 23, 2014 - No reason given
Hidden by Bobby, January 23, 2014 - No reason given

I think Gibby's post was very realistic and paints the most likely scenario and what the models are actually showing, and Ian F and Met Office agree with him, people having a go it seems because they don't want to hear it. I bet he has a record low number of likes this winter and it's not due to the quality of his summaries...

Edited by Bobby
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Truly depressing updates coming out of Exeter – who have been bang on all winter. I wish I could back against them but I cannot, nor can I get excited by rain, as some on here implore. The models flirt with allowing the East her say, but the Atlantic is just too strong and we always end up on the wrong side of the battleground. Ironically the UKMO are going against their own model which has been the most bullish of late regarding some decent wintry stuff. 

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