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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


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What a load of cr*p this thread is sometimes. I suggest people review the updated JMA tonight :) & probably the ECM in a few moments.... S

Love the optimism Steve, but when Ian comes on and says all roads lead to westerlies then it's difficult to keep the faith.
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Not pathetic at all. There was a strong signal for January and this has been shown by the change in modelling since the New Year. Things just haven't fallen well for us. Had the Atlantic relented just a tad more, we'd be experiencing winter wonderland now and I would have been vindicated. Small margins my friend....I stuck my neck out at the end of the day and cruelly factors just didn't play ball (to the tune of about 500-700 miles).

 

Just to add, the longwave pattern anomalies for Jan will almost certainly feature a mean blocking feature to the NE which will recurve towards Iceland and east Greenland....not a bad pattern on the face of it and not a million miles away from my Jan prediction back in Nov. The main difference being the troughing to the west....much stronger than anticipated....

Although I think, or should I say hope, you're being a bit premature in writing off this winter I think the criticism of your forecast is harsh to say the least. At the end of the day it's far easier for muppets like me to "sneer" from the sidelines rather than put together a plausible and well argued forecast, which from memory yours was.

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Personally I think it's time we bit the bullet and put winter 13/14 to rest. Some may think this is an over reaction but in reality we're looking towards Feb at the earliest for any meaningful cold pattern setting up. I've not seen a single snowfall this winter, not one....and that ranks it up there with the very worst of the '90s dross....at least I saw the odd NW'ly Cheshire gap scenario back then.

 

Someone said the other day that this upcoming spell was 'not your average toppler'....well that's certainly true, it's not even a toppler scenario (which I would quite happily take right now to be honest).

 

As we progress through Feb, lying snow will be harder and harder to maintain and by March snowfall will not lie here...March 2013 taught me that- higher ground still fine though.

As much as i hate cold and snow.(used to love it..must be old age...yeah probably is)this winter SO FAR must be like the equivalent or getting there of summer 2007 for those who liked warmth and sunshine..... for those who love and search for something wintry and long lasting  the hunt goes on...but theres all of feb,march and tbh we can get large dumps of the white stuff in april,ok it dont last long but at least some will get their fix....good luck to all the cold lovers because i for one have enjoyed this winter and its mildness(bar the rain rain and more rain) and if things dry out i might even trim the lawn which has continued to grow....Posted Image

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Brilliant JMA but the other's all absolute bish again, i've lost count of the amount of trends/failed easterlies picked up over the last two week's that have turned into -1 850hpa temps 7c drizzle come the day, everything hinges on Thursdays low undercutting and diving south.

The reality is people seem to take it personally when the 'winter's over, ohhh look a downgrade' appear but some of us just want a vent and people all need to stop taking it like personal insults.

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Jesus Mary and Joseph!! A few medicine cabinets have been raided this afternoon haven't they?? Get a grip it's the middle of January! The strat warmings are still to come and where the roulette wheel will land is anybody's guess so still lots of changes to come ( hopefully) lol.Ohh and I hope some of these one line merchants who say they are off now because winter is over have a great time away, I know I will not having to read their trolling posts!

 

Problem is that they probably won't stay away though, as they currently seem to come back day after day telling us that winter is still over!

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As much as i hate cold and snow.(used to love it..must be old age...yeah probably is)this winter SO FAR must be like the equivalent or getting there of summer 2007 for those who liked warmth and sunshine..... for those who love and search for something wintry and long lasting  the hunt goes on...but theres all of feb,march and tbh we can get large dumps of the white stuff in april,ok it dont last long but at least some will get their fix....good luck to all the cold lovers because i for one have enjoyed this winter and its mildness(bar the rain rain and more rain) and if things dry out i might even trim the lawn which has continued to grow....Posted Image

not quite cos even in 2007 we saw a few pleasant warm sunny days, getting any snow in this country is far harder to achieve than a warm pleasant day, june 2012 was bad but i remember spending a couple of days painting my nans fence and got a bit of a tan, joe public and mildies don't realise how good they have it compared to coldies, yet they still moan like hell when the weather is bad, they have 7-8 months of the year where they can see nice weather, snow lovers get 3 or 4 months and that's pushing it, we can see temps of 20c in march and april, we don't see temps of 0c in september or october and even november most years

Edited by Tony27
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Brilliant JMA but the other's all absolute bish again, i've lost count of the amount of trends/failed easterlies picked up over the last two week's that have turned into -1 850hpa temps 7c drizzle come the day, everything hinges on Thursdays low undercutting and diving south.

The reality is people seem to take it personally when the 'winter's over, ohhh look a downgrade' appear but some of us just want a vent and people all need to stop taking it like personal insults.

 

I don't blame people for wanting to have a rant, god knows this winter deserves it!

 

However, I really wish they would post the diatribes in this thread and stop cluttering up the main model thread with them as it makes it so hard to get through to try and find out what is actually going on.

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Problem is that they probably won't stay away though, as they currently seem to come back day after day telling us that winter is still over!

If only they could respect the nature of what the forum is about. I love snow and that's why I come on here but I don't mind it when posters say what they see and BACK IT UP, be it mild charts or cold. I just don't get the one liners. I bet the Mods hate this time of year lol! The only thread that is respected is the strat thread, full of great posts from some brilliant posters.
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I don't blame people for wanting to have a rant, god knows this winter deserves it!

 

However, I really wish they would post the diatribes in this thread and stop cluttering up the main model thread with them as it makes it so hard to get through to try and find out what is actually going on.

 

Agree yeah, no wonder who is top poster by a mile in this thread! not a bad thing at all posts are suited for here not main thread

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I would be surprised if we did see a mild spring especially if the winter doesn't deliver, once the PV does depart it could end up one of those if only situations for coldies in here. Last spring was really very poor , here most crops were as much as 6 weeks late! I love the cold and snow but have an aversion to slush and really only enjoy it when you can have those lovely walks in sparkling sunshine and crunchy snow!

 

The spring before - 2012 - was far worse. Warm days in March brought out the insects only to be killed by harsh frosts in April/May which resulted in no apple, plum or pear crop - and it was the worst year for bee keepers for a 100 years. At least last year was unremittingly cold until the second half of May so nothing got under way and the crops were late, in 2012 they were never.

 

I hope we get a few weeks/months of cold or none at all and just write off A/W 2013/14. And unless we get this cold in February/March, that is what we'll have to do. I should add that I've personally already done so. I like cold in December and January — by Feb/March I'm getting tired of wintriness.

Edited by Iceni
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Personally I think it's time we bit the bullet and put winter 13/14 to rest. Some may think this is an over reaction but in reality we're looking towards Feb at the earliest for any meaningful cold pattern setting up. I've not seen a single snowfall this winter, not one....and that ranks it up there with the very worst of the '90s dross....at least I saw the odd NW'ly Cheshire gap scenario back then.

 

Someone said the other day that this upcoming spell was 'not your average toppler'....well that's certainly true, it's not even a toppler scenario (which I would quite happily take right now to be honest).

 

As we progress through Feb, lying snow will be harder and harder to maintain and by March snowfall will not lie here...March 2013 taught me that- higher ground still fine though.

I'm with you Crew, it just feels like we are chasing shadows this winter and it just shows how poor this winter has been when we are getting excited about the prospects of some possible frontal snow. 

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people keep defaulting to "no cold on way cause met office dont mention in there long range forecast " have they forgot bout our bbq summer

Old hat. The MO don't do long rangers anymore, however, their monthly outlooks have been extremely good.
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Well, if the weather was a football league, all us coldies would be deep in the relegation zone right now. So, as a bit of a break from our despair, just for fun, I wonder if anyone has stopped to imagine what it would feel like to be a fan of mild weather instead? It might look a little like this...

 

Sensational charts tonight yet again! The threat of a breakdown to cold from the East at just T96 has completely vanished on the 12Zs and yes yes yes! The mild air wins again!  Obviously we need to be cautious as it is just one set of runs and indeed it would be an almighty letdown if the models were to flip back to cold dross at this late stage, but there is complete agreement from all charts and ensembles.

 

Once again, the mighty GFS leads the way, utter consistency in predicting mild and it has been correct every single day of the winter even in the face of the under-regressive ECM, which yet again threatens a breakdown to cold this time from the north but it is in FI and the ECM has time after time underestimated the mild block to the south and overestimated the Eastern vortex which is obviously shattered into tiny pieces - so we can bin the ECM and all its ensembles once again or simply watch them fall into line with the GFS as T96 and T120 approaches.

 

Understandably this thread is quiet at the moment as no doubt everyone is in the regionals reporting rain depths/river depths/puddle depths.

 

 

(edit: sorry Skeggy Blizzard I tried to change your name!)

Edited by rjbw
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Not too surprised that Chris Fawkes is fairly bullish that this is just a cold blip (as he calls it) before there is a return to mild conditions but it was his statement on strat warming ..

 

"I'm afraid it's wishful thinking there are no signs of sudden stratospheric warming between now and February"

 

Odd,  I thought the signs were certainly there, or is he technically correct and that any warming is later in Feb ?

Probably meant between now and up to February otherwise would have said up to March would have thought

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In spite of all the model pronouncements in the last few months at least somewhere in the UK is approaching 2010 snow depths and not facing a snow famine.  Cairngorm Mountain have been having to dig out the tunnel mouth and track on the funicular rail way and have depths of snow at 2010 level according to their Facebook page

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Posted (edited) · Hidden by ZONE 51, January 21, 2014 - not model related ..just making a point with this post
Hidden by ZONE 51, January 21, 2014 - not model related ..just making a point with this post

At the end of the day I look at this place as informal weather forum , where we can share the ups and downs in a none serious enviroment, if I want an professional assessment of the forecast then I can look at the metoffice pages..Frankly I would like to block professional posters, but then posts are still requoted etc.. Which defeats the object and kind of supports my view that they carry too much weight.Just saying..

Don't really know the best way to put this but you should read the NW forecasts too, yes the MO are of course professionals and I read there forecasts which are very accurate, also I look through the data on the site there. But the way I read your post is but anyone else's forecasts are not expert?? 

 

Let me let you know this. I read the Netweather forecasts each day if possible, they are very informative and very accurate, and to add I read the monthy and same here too, basically these are experts they are pros at forecasting on here, and annoys me that they don't seem to get the credit they deserve.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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After 27 years experience of watching north atlantic low pressure, I tell you now, i'm not encouraged there will even be a sniff of anything remotely easterly after thursday. Forget all that model shannon entrophy c..p. Seen it year upon year upon year. While ever the ne u.s , ne canada is as cold as it is, forget it. This is not hopecasting or just a hunch, nor am I saying winters over. Just expect more waiting, a bus will arrive eventually!

Don't be a meanie lol, :)

Dunno about you, but I've had enough mild to last me twelve winters. So I don't value your post.

Especially when the ECM throws out a juicy Arctic High in the latter frames.. 

Posted Imagearctic.png

 

 

P.S. I found a picture of you on the web:

Posted Imagetroll.png

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After 27 years experience of watching north atlantic low pressure, I tell you now, i'm not encouraged there will even be a sniff of anything remotely easterly after thursday. Forget all that model shannon entrophy c..p. Seen it year upon year upon year. While ever the ne u.s , ne canada is as cold as it is, forget it. This is not hopecasting or just a hunch, nor am I saying winters over. Just expect more waiting, a bus will arrive eventually!

Don't be a meanie lol, Posted Image

 

 

Here comes the number 8, next stop Winter.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Mucka
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Frosty I have spent the last few weeks reading your posts and thinking for lords sakes turn down the optimism just a little bit and now just when I think there are real signs that a pattern shift may happen and I stress may happen, you go all pessimistic on us, cheer up you old beggar. In my book scandy blocks like this need a lot of shifting, the models keep wanting to shift it post 144hrs but that’s just not happening as we get into the higher res. There is plenty more evolution to come and while I’m not forecasting it nevertheless I would not be surprised to see some good outputs in the next few days. The golden rule as far as I can see is that all output beyond 120hrs is highly suspect and the ensembles are unreliable and really that’s why we keep coming back run after run, it’s like pass the parcel, sooner or later someone’s going to get the chocolate bar and we hope it will be us.

Edited by weather eater
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Aside the fact this is p8 stamp and the gfs 18 z, that date is further away than one of those bbq summers.... Mabe.... Just mabe!

Here comes the number 8, next stop Winter.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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