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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


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Posted
  • Location: Manhattan, USA
  • Location: Manhattan, USA

    Conflict there?

     

    If the thread was "Model Hunt for Cold" then fair enough, hunt for cold and nobody else need discuss anything else. People find other types of weather interesting from a meteorological perspective however, gales, storms, thunderstorms, heavy rain, hail, convective weather etc, these people are shut out and have nowhere to go. Just would like somewhere where there's model discusson of weather in all it's variety rather than just one specialised type of weather. I suppose it's futile as nowt will change, ah well.

     

    There is a slight conflict, but I don't mind because the usual good posters, Steve Murr, Nick S etc will say when it does not look good for cold, not just "make it up" for the fun of it, or look for the worst solution.

     

    The ignore feature is a god send for that thread, although I hope there is not a quota because i'd be nearly there !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Just had at look at piers corbyns site. Most important forecast since dec 2010. Now somebody was saying its a sales ploy. And he is going for above average rainfall and mild. Just wondering if anyone else seen this?

     

    Hurray, time to get the sledge out then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey

    So latest metoffice forecast is a bit dire then for cold. Not even a mention of 'uncertainty'. Lets hope the 12z prompts an update but not holding out much hope for this winter

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    I'm not sure any of them really do actually like wet mush to be honest, most of them are just on a wind-up as 99% of people on this forum who use the Model Output are looking for Cold & Snow. Pretty sad behaviour really, but I don't see any of it anymore thanks to the Ignore feature where they all go. It makes the Model Output viewing much more enjoyable and none biased towards a particular weather type. It does not matter if there is -20 850's heading our way, they will find something to pick at.

     

    What is the model output discussion thread for, is it cold hunting or discussing the model output whatever it may be, discussing what may happen whatever it may be? Some people find other types of weather interesting other than just cold, we have huge variety in our weather. Every post must be framed from the perspective of hunting cold or it's not welcome it seems... a very narrow definition of "model output discussion"?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manhattan, USA
  • Location: Manhattan, USA

    What is the model output discussion thread for, is it cold hunting or discussing the model output whatever it may be, discussing what may happen whatever it may be? Some people find other types of weather interesting other than just cold, we have huge variety in our weather. Every post must be framed from the perspective of hunting cold or it's not welcome it seems... a very narrow definition of "model output discussion"?

     

    It's for discussing the Model Output obviously, but unless you are wearing blinkers, some minority members seem dertermined to not point out what they actually show & vice versa.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    What is the model output discussion thread for, is it cold hunting or discussing the model output whatever it may be, discussing what may happen whatever it may be? Some people find other types of weather interesting other than just cold, we have huge variety in our weather. Every post must be framed from the perspective of hunting cold or it's not welcome it seems... a very narrow definition of "model output discussion"?

     

    If it aint showing cold, the model is WRONG! That is my only conclusion from the MOD thread. Even when you try and show the masses that it is unlikely with charts, graphs and other sources, you are always met with the same comments "things will change tomorrow. Winter is coming. I feel it in my bones, you are a wind up merchant. it's already cold. I can see snow.... over there, its close, its coming" and so on...

     

    I've been waiting for cold since November, and it has hardly greeted me kindly so far. I read someone say yesterday "ill listen to the experts and not the models"... I mean, seriously, you can't make it up!

     

    But heyho!! Tis only the weather, and as always, it will do what it pleases... no matter what!

    Edited by draztik
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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    I would say poor old Feb will have alot of pressure on its shoulders this year in trying to save this winters blushes. Personnally ive nearly given up on hoping for some big deep freeze happining this winter,the rest of this month just looks like much of the same overall to me- atlantic dominated,maybe a chance for some transient snow at times but nothing too exciting imo. Sometimes once a season is in a particular mood that mood is set imo,may get something more interesting next month but i think any cold we get between now and the end of the winter will be just half hearted stuff. I reckon we will see more snow in March/April then we will see in the whole of this winter, I really hope feb can deliver but i fear that it probably wont.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    No, they're actually fairly happy with it all, as it stands. Aside from the snow already in existing forecast expectations Tues-Weds (for northern uplands, significant in some areas), plus some transient amounts late Fri (just a 10-15% chance of colder air lingering long enough in extreme east to make this any more noteworthy), it's the rain amounts later Fri overnight into Sat that catch the eye and forecast emphasis. Either way, good confidence now on the westerly 'breakthrough' post-Friday, albeit exact rapidity still unclear, but the end result well signalled across all operational centres.

    Well, that's a kick in the teeth! I think it's become clear this winter that every time we get a sniff at something wintry it's soon to be snatched away!UKMO & GFS both look fairly similar now within reliable timeframe with a variance on the same thing - the Atlantic breaking through and bringing lots of rain with it! Meh!!
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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    Well, that's a kick in the teeth! I think it's become clear this winter that every time we get a sniff at something wintry it's soon to be snatched away!UKMO & GFS both look fairly similar now within reliable timeframe with a variance on the same thing - the Atlantic breaking through and bringing lots of rain with it! Meh!!

     

    Yup. I appreciate there has been some uncertainty, certainly Ian had been saying that recently. But, to be fair, the ens have not looked uncertain to me. It really has been the only route shown in the mid term ens for the last 5 days or so. Bit of a head scratcher, that one!

    Edited by draztik
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Well, that's a kick in the teeth! I think it's become clear this winter that every time we get a sniff at something wintry it's soon to be snatched away!UKMO & GFS both look fairly similar now within reliable timeframe with a variance on the same thing - the Atlantic breaking through and bringing lots of rain with it! Meh!!

    yep,just when you think it's appears a cold spell is likely the atlantic wins again.incredible all that cold air building out east and we cant tap into it.

     

    My patience with this winter is beginning to run out.Maybe march will deliver,if not expect great looking synoptic winter charts come later in spring time.

     

    Always nearly happens all the time in rubbish winters,when it's too late.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Personally I think it's time we bit the bullet and put winter 13/14 to rest. Some may think this is an over reaction but in reality we're looking towards Feb at the earliest for any meaningful cold pattern setting up. I've not seen a single snowfall this winter, not one....and that ranks it up there with the very worst of the '90s dross....at least I saw the odd NW'ly Cheshire gap scenario back then.

     

    Someone said the other day that this upcoming spell was 'not your average toppler'....well that's certainly true, it's not even a toppler scenario (which I would quite happily take right now to be honest).

     

    As we progress through Feb, lying snow will be harder and harder to maintain and by March snowfall will not lie here...March 2013 taught me that- higher ground still fine though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    So latest metoffice forecast is a bit dire then for cold. Not even a mention of 'uncertainty'. Lets hope the 12z prompts an update but not holding out much hope for this winter

    Yep, the carrot dangles and then hurtfully taken away again. You cold lovers must be getting very frustrated with another dreadful deluge on the cards again. The 0c isotherm just entering into Holland for another added tease and insult. Fairly certain now the colder block to the east is just out of reach for you guys. Maybe another attempt is possible.

     C

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    Personally I think it's time we bit the bullet and put winter 13/14 to rest. Some may think this is an over reaction but in reality we're looking towards Feb at the earliest for any meaningful cold pattern setting up. I've not seen a single snowfall this winter, not one....and that ranks it up there with the very worst of the '90s dross....at least I saw the odd NW'ly Cheshire gap scenario back then.

     

    Someone said the other day that this upcoming spell was 'not your average toppler'....well that's certainly true, it's not even a toppler scenario (which I would quite happily take right now to be honest).

     

    As we progress through Feb, lying snow will be harder and harder to maintain and by March snowfall will not lie here...March 2013 taught me that- higher ground still fine though.

    I can understand and share your frustration CC but we got to dig in here and wait.

    That Vortex has to relent and it will over the next couple of weeks IMO.

    Mid Feb i think we'll be in the zone :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

    Personally I think it's time we bit the bullet and put winter 13/14 to rest. Some may think this is an over reaction but in reality we're looking towards Feb at the earliest for any meaningful cold pattern setting up. I've not seen a single snowfall this winter, not one....and that ranks it up there with the very worst of the '90s dross....at least I saw the odd NW'ly Cheshire gap scenario back then.Someone said the other day that this upcoming spell was 'not your average toppler'....well that's certainly true, it's not even a toppler scenario (which I would quite happily take right now to be honest).As we progress through Feb, lying snow will be harder and harder to maintain and by March snowfall will not lie here...March 2013 taught me that- higher ground still fine though.

    How ironic that comment is, especially from you after your comment towards the end of Dec about the UK experiencing wintry weather to nearly match what happened in Dec '10 during this month! Well you were a tad wrong on that one mate and your probably be wrong about writing off the rest of winter too. Still got all of Feb and march to go yet, even imby at sea level in the West County I can remember decent snow falls in March so for anyone to be writing off winter at this stage, well comments like that are pathetic in all honesty.One thing I'll say, when we're only just over halfway through winter and some posters are already writing off the rest of it, thank god the forum has an ignore function as I don't want to come in here and waste my time reading comments like that. Edited by Smartie
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    How ironic that comment is, especially from you after your comment towards the end of Dec about the UK experiencing wintry weather to nearly match what happened in Dec '10 during this month!Well you were a tad wrong on that one mate and your probably be wrong about writing off the rest of winter too. Still got all of Feb and march to go yet, even imby at sea level in the West County I can remember decent snow falls in March so for anyone to be writing off winter at this stage, well comments like that are pathetic in all honesty.

     

    Not pathetic at all. There was a strong signal for January and this has been shown by the change in modelling since the New Year. Things just haven't fallen well for us. Had the Atlantic relented just a tad more, we'd be experiencing winter wonderland now and I would have been vindicated. Small margins my friend....I stuck my neck out at the end of the day and cruelly factors just didn't play ball (to the tune of about 500-700 miles).

     

    Just to add, the longwave pattern anomalies for Jan will almost certainly feature a mean blocking feature to the NE which will recurve towards Iceland and east Greenland....not a bad pattern on the face of it and not a million miles away from my Jan prediction back in Nov. The main difference being the troughing to the west....much stronger than anticipated....

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Well looks like Ian has finally put the final nail in our winter coffin. Looking at the charts after Friday looks like more heavy rain and gales. Especially on the gfs tonight. As Crewe cold has mentioned think it's probably time to put this winter to bed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

    what we have to remember is the average temp is about 6c or 7c in winter, if we want to see snow and temps below freezing during the day that is 7+c below the norm, we don't often see 14c 15c in winter which is 7+ degrees above average, its only happens occasionally even in mild winters, most of the time temps range between 3c and 11c so it takes a lot to get ice days in the UK esp in the south

     

    the mildies are lucky 20c 21c 22c which is the average temp in summer is warm enough in lots of sunshine, they don;t need it to be 30c, we need it to be 0c or below ideally in winter, unless 3-4c and a slushy mix of sleet and snow floats your boat

     

    as for the models they do my head in, upgrade, downgrade, upgrade, downgrade and so on, i felt more relaxed in december at least it only showed bartlett and zonal charts back then and the charts didn't tease and troll us with cold FI charts

    Edited by Tony27
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Why do we come on this board ? for me it's to learn, chase the cold and for some light hearted fun on these dark evenings... some people might say its good to have professional input, I say no! one single poster has killed a thread stone dead with a few words, is it right for one person to carry so much weight. Sometimes the chase is part of the fun and for me personally it was killed dead this evening...yes the outcome might be poor for cold, but I don't need to told by posters with inside knowledge, which we do not have and which trumps all the other excellent posts.

    At the end of the day I look at this place as informal weather forum , where we can share the ups and downs in a none serious enviroment, if I want an professional assessment of the forecast then I can look at the metoffice pages..

    Frankly I would like to block professional posters, but then posts are still requoted etc.. Which defeats the object and kind of supports my view that they carry too much weight.

    Just saying..

    Edited by TSNWK
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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    It's the 20th January and most of the models' output hasn't even reached Feb yet, so to write winter off now is over the top. I can understand why people are frustrated because it HAS been a rubbish winter so far, but what I am seeing are not forecasts, they are doomcasts based on those frustrations.

     

    I can remember plenty of winters where nothing much happened before Feb, and maybe it will be like that this year, maybe it won't. But what I can't accept is that anyone knows anything more than about 7 days ahead in weather terms, no matter how good they are at reading the models. If there was anyone truly capable of accurately predicting the mid and long term, they would be very rich and famous by now!

     

    CreweCold, surely your prediction of a cold January that didn't happen is evidence of the above? I still think we could see surprises yet! Hang in there! Posted Image

    Edited by Chalk Serpent
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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    So you doubt any cold charts which are not within 12 hours of verifying but are happy to call the next 6 weeks zonal.Happy days

    no I'm going by the met extended outlook. Ian's updates that the Atlantic taking charge again into next week. We been chasing cold since November on the charts. And I think it's time now to give it up for me anyway. The next 10 days on the charts and ensembles don't paint anything uk cold wide. So that takes us into feb. Sorry but just how I feel tonight think like I said Ian's update is a real kick in the teeth
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    No doubt next winter will be great for coldies, I missed 2009/10 and the 10/11 winters from being abroad with work, and just found out I'm away Oct to Mar next winter!!! Typical

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Well looks like Ian has finally put the final nail in our winter coffin. Looking at the charts after Friday looks like more heavy rain and gales. Especially on the gfs tonight. As Crewe cold has mentioned think it's probably time to put this winter to bed.

    See you in Spring old chap.Like it or not its winter for a while yet.Its like a young child being told to go to bed early...it wont go until its bedtime
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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    This winter was bound to be pants as soon as the Mail piped up with their "coldest winter in xxxx years" "uk will ground to a halt" rubbish in November.

    We have had about 3 frosts this "winter" and not a single flake of the white stuff. Very poor compared to recent years.

    I'm not going to write winter off just yet. But if we dont start seeing better charts in the next couple of weeks then I will be very close to getting my towel out!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)

    Jesus Mary and Joseph!! A few medicine cabinets have been raided this afternoon haven't they?? Get a grip it's the middle of January! The strat warmings are still to come and where the roulette wheel will land is anybody's guess so still lots of changes to come ( hopefully) lol.

    Ohh and I hope some of these one line merchants who say they are off now because winter is over have a great time away, I know I will not having to read their trolling posts!

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