Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Bolton67]

This is the moan thread, so I am going to have a moan.I am fed up with trolling posts that, on the basis of one model run, claim that winter is over when it's mid January, posts that say Feb is looking poor for snow when it's two weeks away, and posts that claim that because the Met Office don't mention snow in their 16-30 day forecast that they are 100% correct and never get it wrong.I have a lot of respect for the Met Office but they are not always correct, especially with extended forecasts, as I found last summer. I rather suspect that if they had a choice they wouldn't even produce that long range forecast but are required to by the authorities.Oh, and while I'm here, what is the point of putting people on ignore? All that happens is that someone you are not ignoring quotes their post when replying to them and you end up seeing it anyway!Rant over; as you were.......

agree 100% and it's always from the same usual suspects.  it's becoming very tedious.

[snowblizzard]

Major developments in the general pattern during later part of next week, there will be some surprises!

Will it be good or bad for cold?

We will see, but don't get too excited!

[festivalking]

The winter of 2013-2014 known as the winter of potential or the winter of 240.

[snowblizzard]

Wow, positively spring like down here in Kent this morning!

Dry, bright sunshine, blue sky, mild, birds are singing, you'd really think it was April.

[Froze were the Days]

This winter has been woeful to say the least, unfortunately we get these winters of mild longevity fairly frequently (I'd say probably 1 in every 3/4 years I'd say) but this one as we all know has been compacted with consistent rain and wind.

A change on the horizon?...well let's face it would have to be a 'big' turn around for quite a substantial freeze which usually equates to much lower precipitation and a big pattern change. Going by my experience I'd say the Atlantic is just to potent at present and continues to be for at least the next few weeks, note too the continued presence of the Azores hp that never leaves the vacinity. 

[DTHFCJ]

Wow, positively spring like down here in Kent this morning!

Dry, bright sunshine, blue sky, mild, birds are singing, you'd really think it was April.

Same here just had a ciggy outside and a closer look at the trees shows plenty of activity bud wise....the young laurel trees i planted have been growing faster through the winter than the did during last spring and summer...they have had a great head start and long may it continue...roll on....................spring winter?what winter

[Long haul to mild]

This winter has been woeful to say the least, unfortunately we get these winters of mild longevity fairly frequently (I'd say probably 1 in every 3/4 years I'd say) but this one as we all know has been compacted with consistent rain and wind.A change on the horizon?...well let's face it would have to be a 'big' turn around for quite a substantial freeze which usually equates to much lower precipitation and a big pattern change. Going by my experience I'd say the Atlantic is just to potent at present and continues to be for at least the next few weeks, note too the continued presence of the Azores hp that never leaves the vacinity.

I personally doubt that there will be anything of note in the next two weeks, but anything after that is anyone's guess. I just have a gut feeling that some of the decent FI charts we have seen in the last few days are significant and I believe that February will at least bring a bit of snowfall to most parts of the country.That Azores high is a pest but there have been some signs of a link up with the now developing Arctic high. I still think that this could happen at the end of Jan and from there things could get better. They certainly can't get much worse!

[Keraunic]

Lovely, spring-like day in Ipswich. Don't think there'll be much snow about now. Oh dear.

[Bobby]

This winter has been woeful to say the least, unfortunately we get these winters of mild longevity fairly frequently (I'd say probably 1 in every 3/4 years I'd say) but this one as we all know has been compacted with consistent rain and wind.

A change on the horizon?...well let's face it would have to be a 'big' turn around for quite a substantial freeze which usually equates to much lower precipitation and a big pattern change. Going by my experience I'd say the Atlantic is just to potent at present and continues to be for at least the next few weeks, note too the continued presence of the Azores hp that never leaves the vacinity. 

 

True, the fact there is excitement about one UKMO run giving a 1 day coldish snap of sleet/snow on E coasts, a run the Met Office has discounted, that will be quickly followed by milder wet westerlies anyway says it all I think. The much talked about pattern change seems as substantial as grasping for smoke at the moment in regards to a coming cold spell.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Bobby

[conor123]

Once again another potential pattern change has been swapped for raging zonality, colder zonality than recent weeks but a spade is a spade and at this point were beating records for worst winters 2007/2008 (already 10 days of sub 5c maxima by now, 0 this winter), and 2011/2012 (4 days of sub 5c maxima by now plus some interesting exceptional mild sunny weather around Winter Equinox 13/14c).

The only saving grace thus far has been the fact we at least get one or two sunny days a week, we've not had the weeks on end of sunless, grey skies that Jan & Feb 2011 for example had but that's really the only positive I can drag out.

[Bobby]

Someone on TWO called that pesky piece of the Vortex to the NW that's been scuppering our winter "the canadian cyclone cannon", I like that lol.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The models are poor for cold and the resiliant low heights to the North west are going nowhere anytime soon.

The meto long ranger talks of unsettled weather to the middle of FEBRUARY!

Those expecting a pattern change late Jan are going to have to revise their expectations now and i incluse myself in that i got briefly hopeful friday with an apprent atlantic retrograde signal,its gone im afraid.

[Long haul to mild]

What we have to remember though is that just because the models may be toning down this pattern change today, it could all be different tomorrow.It's only natural to start wondering if we will ever see any cold weather this winter, but not one of us knows what the weather may do after the next few days. I'm keeping a note of all the dramatic "winter's over" posts and I'm not afraid to use them to embarrass people if we get some proper cold in the coming weeks

The models are poor for cold and the resiliant low heights to the North west are going nowhere anytime soon.The meto long ranger talks of unsettled weather to the middle of FEBRUARY!Those expecting a pattern change late Jan are going to have to revise their expectations now and i incluse myself in that i got briefly hopeful friday with an apprent atlantic retrograde signal,its gone im afraid.

MetO were repeatedly wrong in the summer with their extended forecasts. Believe me, I was following them closely. They are no more accurate than any other long range model. I don't blame them for it, it's a hard job but just because they say unsettled until February it doesn't mean they are right.As for that Atlantic retrograde signal, who says it won't come back? Why is the latest set of models right and the previous ones wrong?Weather makes fools of the best of us, and regularly of the models, let's not take everything at face value. Edited January 19, 2014 by Chalk Serpent

[Carl46Wrexham]

Bit harsh referring to someone as a whinger in the Model Banter, Ramps and Moans thread is it not....?

 

Or it is because he's not falling for the repetitive Jam tomorrow postings where people say that things may start turning for the better re proper winter weather at t+240 (it's ALWAYS t+240)!!! (Pattern forming here!)

 

Lets just face reality here....no more straw clutching...no more false hopes, this month is a write off, as big an epic fail as December was for a winter month. Let it go...this month is going to deliver jack....unless more rain is what you want...and frankly anyone who wants more of that needs their bumps feeling.

 

February may deliver the goods...then again it might not, there are no guarantees either way.

 

January 2014 is a busted flush in my opinion....I'll come out and say right now there will be no falling or lying snow in any part of low lying England and Wales for the rest of the month...if I am wrong...great...then rip me to shreds...I'll accept it and welcome it...but I don't think I will be.

 

In conclusion...I suppose people are "whinging" because theyre spirits have been crushed by the relentless diabolical crap weather that has been thrown at us for what seems like an eternity...where grey skies and rain are the norm, and dry sunny days are as much a rarity as hens teeth.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Carl46Wrexham

[Long haul to mild]

Bit harsh referring to someone as a whinger in the Model Banter, Ramps and Moans thread is it not....? Or it is because he's not falling for the repetitive Jam tomorrow postings where people say that things may start turning for the better re proper winter weather at t+240 (it's ALWAYS t+240)!!! (Pattern forming here!) Lets just face reality here....no more straw clutching...no more false hopes, this month is a write off, as big an epic fail as December was for a winter month. Let it go...this month is going to deliver jack....unless more rain is what you want...and frankly anyone who wants more of that needs their bumps feeling. February may deliver the goods...then again it might not, there are no guarantees either way. January 2014 is a busted flush in my opinion....I'll come out and say right now there will be no falling or lying snow in any part of low lying England and Wales for the rest of the month...if I am wrong...great...then rip me to shreds...I'll accept it and welcome it...but I don't think I will be.

I largely agree with you about January, but there are way too many people on here (not yourself) who seem to think that they know what is going to happen in February, which is still way outside any kind of reliable forecasting technique . The news for those people is that they cannot possibly know at this stage.I remember plenty of winters that were poor until February, then some good snowy weather came along. I don't claim for one minute that this is going to happen in 2014, but on the flip side no-one can claim that it's NOT going to happen either.Yes you're right, it has been "jam tomorrow" so far during this poor excuse for a winter, but I still feel that there is every chance that we'll be getting to spread it on our toast fairly soon

[Bobby]

No-one knows what will happen in February, I sure don't... all up for grabs. Realistically it's looking grim for January though, with just a small chance right at the end of something substantial it would seem. If we get 2 months of zonal domination and a very cold snowy February this winter will go down as pretty good overall, considering the many winters in the past where we've had virtually nothing at all. Things need to get a move on though...

[Frosty_wsm]

God give me strength, some knee jerk winter is over posts appearing in the model thread, oh that's right, it's still January, for a second there I thought it was late march going by some of the posts in the mod thread right now!

[Tony Beets]

I can't bite my tongue any longer either, it's always the same posters who drivel on and on about doom and gloom. I bet they could still find fault with 2009/2010 cold period!!! Get a grip, we don't want to hear you calling winters end because output at the moment is all over the place! Every run that shows less cold they jump on and declare winter over then if cold filled charts show up they are straight on saying they will never happen. And the worst of all are the one line merchants who I'm sure do it for a reaction!! If you think winter is over then please produce a solid case for it including charts and evidence to state your thoughts, otherwise CO#k off!!

[Chris K]

Angry NW protesters told to stay calm and stop violence after recent lack of snowy activity, causing tension to sky rocket amongst posters.

 

[Buzz]

It's like this year in, year out. You have the "winter is over" moaners (trolls?) but they aren't QUITE as bad as those who get over-excited about charts displaying 'favourable' conditions that are over a week away (and which are unlikely to transpire). I'm not sure which group are the most misleading, but each are as bad as the other. There's also a few technically 'knowledgeable' posters in those groups who should know better ........

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Whats up with some people if theres potential for some cold well lets talk about it am sick of same old people jumping on anyone who mentioned cold and snow if its 2 weeks away so what im still learning after a year on this forum and at times it gets very annoying with all the "its not gna happen its fi " rant over

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Understandable that people are getting hacked off now.

I know i am.

Anyway,we are undoubtedly heading towards a zonal regime as we head towards the end of Jan-

How long that zonal theme is no-body knows really.

[Frosty_wsm]

It's like this year in, year out. You have the "winter is over" moaners (trolls?) but they aren't QUITE as bad as those who get over-excited about charts displaying 'favourable' conditions that are over a week away (and which are unlikely to transpire). I'm not sure which group are the most misleading, but each are as bad as the other. There's also a few technically 'knowledgeable' posters in those groups who should know better ........

 

Oh I think I know one of those `knowledgeable` posters your referring to, in fact it's plainly obvious to me and probably others! If you think he ever over plays a cold chart (yes you do know who I mean), please point it out to me as I never see him ever saying 100% that cold is on the way, if it's looking good for cold he says so, same for if it's looking rubbish in terms of a cold outlook, he also backs up his posts with plenty of charts & analysis, unlike 99% of the doom merchants & moaners who post in the model thread!

Edited January 19, 2014 by Smartie

[Jason M]

Don't normally post in here, but having reviewed the 12Z output I feel the need to get this off my chest

 

     

 

Winters over, winters over.. aaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!! 

 

Still plenty of time to go of course but it all looks pretty desperate to me this evening.

 

Anyway, I feel better now and can go back over to the model thread

[Buzz]

Whats up with some people if theres potential for some cold well lets talk about it am sick of same old people jumping on anyone who mentioned cold and snow if its 2 weeks away so what im still learning after a year on this forum and at times it gets very annoying with all the "its not gna happen its fi " rant over

 

The problem, as always, is that many people look at charts for +240 hours and immediately think "that's what's going to happen". It doesn't matter if the chart shows mild or 'freeze your nadgers off', many people will erroneously assume that what the charts are showing is likely to happen. This approach is what causes the most problems in the main model discussion area. By all means look at 'trends', but anyone foolish enough to take them as gospel really shouldn't be commenting here. If the met office with all of their computing power and human experts can't get the forecasts right for just a few days hence, how does anyone expect people here to get it right based on the very limited information available to us?