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phil nw.

Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

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your posts are becoming quite predictable now, we can get snow in december and january and rampant mild zonal in feb, the weather doesn't always follow the script, we had easterlies last june when it's supposed to be a westerly month

 

I didn't want to say it, but you're absolutely right. The argument of cold and snow not arriving until February-April has as much strength as saying heatwaves don't arrive until August-October!

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the problem is this. When the ecmf shows what we want folks always get sucked in, though the winter wanderland charts r at 144h-240h away. So when it shows something else next run folks r unhappy. The stats shows ecmf as the top model so far this winter it hasn't come off smelling of roses. The gfs has done well at time and the ecmf32day done rather well this winter.

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Can't remember a Winter that has had no Cold periods at all, with at least 1 country wide snow event happening per year..If you're talking about odds, I would say odds are were due a Cold period very soon , and at very least a HP settled spell. The Weather likes to even it self out , and I would say were 70-80% likely to see a very Cold Feb and with all the background signals staring us in the face , this makes it even more likely .. The Cluster that is showing the P/V powering up a bit are the runs that want to Split the P/V and take half of it to Siberia. This IMO would then let the Azores fill the gap meet with the Arctic high which by that time will be somewhere around Greenland and there you have it , massive wall of High pressure blocking the Atlantic, P/V energy to our North East in a very Cold air sending low pressure down the North sea setting up a very unstable flow, and any breakdown would likely come from the SW due to the block meaning even more Snow ... May sound silly but this is how I see this whole situation playing out, all with still a brief chance of some kind of Easterly before the PV splits Eastward. Quite enjoying currently watching how events are unfolding . 

 

I can recall many from the mid-late 90's / early noughties, from an IMBY perspective. This Winter certainly has a feel about those grim years to it, except this time around we are getting a relentless barage of lows and rain! Personally, right now, I would be happy with a week or two of hard frosts, at least then it would at least feel seasonal! I have high hopes for Feb but something tells me this years Winter maybe be remembered for all the wrong reasons... 

 

...and if I read the word 'potentail' one more time on this thread I might have to find the nearest local bridge!!! Lol Posted Image

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I'm getting desperate for some real cold now.I think future threads should be headed up "Spring Model Discussion...."it seemed to do the trick last year.....

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shannon entropy.???...why o why do people use words that most have to google to find the meaning of it,,just say confidence is low to what might happen/occur

Edited by DTHFCJ
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so here we go again another wild goose chase for a cold spell as a couple of runs in deep FI from the GFS have shown HLB, well im not falling for it this time unless it becomes very consistent and gets inside T120, im tired of model watching now i want to enjoy model watching but as things downgrade so often its hard not to be negative, i just hope the models haven't yet again overeacted to a HLB signal as they often over do blocking as we seen with the ECM, its a cliche that the models underestimate blocking but that isn't always the case quite often its over done hence the downgrades we see

Edited by Tony27
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Think we may see a few northerly topplers from 26th Jan, being modelled in FI on GFS a few times, end of Jan so not really unrealistic, snowy spells i feel for northern areas, south though could stay snow free during the topplers

 

should start to see the zonal/mild westerlies starting to die down

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The 18z is often a trend starter, it wouldn't surprise if  the models follow suit over the next day or so with all of those championing this big "game changer" being brought firmly down to earth before of course the models start teasing us again a week later and so on, so forth, as others have said it just feels like this is one of those winters...

Edited by SnowObsessor90

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Feels like I live in a different universe when I read the model output thread sometimes. Maybe the people there are smarter/know more than me and can see something I can't because I see nowt significant to get excited about as far as the eye can see. With the usual caveats that things can always change quickly/unexpectedy.

 

Pfft.

Edited by Bobby
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No major cold in the latest runs the Atlantic remains too strong. So winter still on hold.

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Feels like I live in a different universe when I read the model output thread sometimes. Maybe the people there are smarter/know more than me and can see something I can't because I see nowt significant to get excited about as far as the eye can see. With the usual caveats that things can always change quickly/unexpectedy.

 

Pfft.

 

There's no maybe about it.

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No major cold in the latest runs the Atlantic remains too strong. So winter still on hold.

A minor cold would be just fine for me

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Feels like I live in a different universe when I read the model output thread sometimes. Maybe the people there are smarter/know more than me and can see something I can't because I see nowt significant to get excited about as far as the eye can see. With the usual caveats that things can always change quickly/unexpectedy.

 

Pfft.

The thing is that some of the better posters are highlighting what could happen and the less informed take it that it will happen, hence the disappointment which occurs all the time.

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shannon entropy.???...why o why do people use words that most have to google to find the meaning of it,,just say confidence is low to what might happen/occur

Is it just low confidence or is it more of a wide range of clustered solutions (and very varied clusters - ie. mild sw and frigid easterlies)? never been quite sure as there is a difference.

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If it has to be mild it could at least be dry. All I see for the foreseeable is rain, rain and more rain, with the odd drier interlude. Even now that the Atlantic has quietened down and we're stuck with troughs over us, here in Egham I've recorded 50mm in the last week alone!

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Is it just low confidence or is it more of a wide range of clustered solutions (and very varied clusters - ie. mild sw and frigid easterlies)? never been quite sure as there is a difference.

just basic plain English will do whatever shannon entropy actually means.....i just dont see the point of flash words,heres one... Audere Est Facere

i know what it means but bar the eggheads(and Spurs fans) most will google it!

Edited by DTHFCJ

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just basic plain English will do whatever shannon entropy actually means.....i just dont see the point of flash words,heres one... Audere Est Facere

i know what it means but bar the eggheads(and Spurs fans) most will google it!

Does it mean 'to get easily beaten by Arsenal'?

 

Ps I like more innovative language in a world where everything is dumbed down.

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Does it mean 'to get easily beaten by Arsenal'?

 

Ps I like more innovative language in a world where everything is dumbed down.

Posted Image thats fighting talk Posted Image

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it took me about 5 seconds to look at the 06z and that was enough what a load of rubbish, ECM looks good but surprise surprise it's at T240

 

plus the luton v wrexham game has been postponedPosted Image Posted Image games get called of when it snows but at least i lke snow

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06Z deep FI is better, at least dry, typical Feb chart really with high pressure in charge, who knows could happen, Feb is one of the driest months of the year

 

if it turns cold thats a bonus, i just wanna see HP in charge for now

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Which is better? There's only one way to find out: FIGHT......And the uk is right in the middle of it, the dumping groundPosted Image

 

 

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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This is the moan thread, so I am going to have a moan.

I am fed up with trolling posts that, on the basis of one model run, claim that winter is over when it's mid January, posts that say Feb is looking poor for snow when it's two weeks away, and posts that claim that because the Met Office don't mention snow in their 16-30 day forecast that they are 100% correct and never get it wrong.

I have a lot of respect for the Met Office but they are not always correct, especially with extended forecasts, as I found last summer. I rather suspect that if they had a choice they wouldn't even produce that long range forecast but are required to by the authorities.

Oh, and while I'm here, what is the point of putting people on ignore? All that happens is that someone you are not ignoring quotes their post when replying to them and you end up seeing it anyway!

Rant over; as you were.......

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