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phil nw.

Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

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Nothing in today's run on the GFS I think Jan 2nd half can also go the way of the recycle bin.

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C'mon hardly a moan..show some passion LOL. Just about makes the gripe category.

Too tired to moan.

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I wouldn't put too many eggs in the SSW basket, knowing our luck it'll result in a mild anticylonic type pattern which will put the final nail in  this winter's coffin.

Edited by SnowObsessor90
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I am going to jump in front of a car tomorrow morning because life without snow is a life not worth living. Goodbye everyone. Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Pretty grotty day here, rained again for most of the day. Agree it's getting very boring, dull, annoying etc. Fingers crossed for a change in pattern ASAP

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http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

 

This forecast by Accuweather for Europe is not far out and the year before

they wasn't far out, they are saying later in the winter (which roughly starts now

the stormyness will kick in) well that bit seems a bit back to front with what we've been

having, and also they are hinting about maybe the stratospheric warming playing its hand

so i suppose there is still hope yet.

 

The dominant flow in this country is from the atlantic (all us weather enthusiasts know

this) so its no suprise we get winters so abysmal like this, where not alone, same latitude

roughly, coastal western canada dominated by the pacific dross and even coastal Alaska

can be rather mild and boring at times, when your near an ocean that can be the winter killer.

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It failed David. We predicted the cold over Scandinavia, which developed and held. The European trough and low circulation  which we were confident of in our progs do not take shape. UKMO well played they were never wholly convinced. At times GFS AND ECM were thinking that way but have backed away as you know. Bad loss for UK snow and Lowland Europe. Still things can turn around again. I hope so ,for the sake of the many UK cold lovers on this site. For me, I will always get snow at 1600m,thats why I am here, its my holy grail.

 C

Thank you for the reply.

Any hints from your guys re Feb?

Regards D.

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zzzzzz this is getting very boring now whens winter gna start sick of this extended autumn grim grey damp not eventful greyness its not good for our health

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Even northerly topplers are rare in Dec and early/mid Jan, pattern is just too flat, way more likely to get them feb to mid April

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My prediction that some areas might not see any or very little snow this winter is still on, outlook for rest of this month shows very little in way of any widespread wintry weather, 

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My new Avatar says it all about this, so far, snowless winter Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

I feel i'm going to be as old as him by the time i see the next flake or two! ......Joking apart, I hope bloody not Posted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings

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The wild goose chase for this easterly is still ongoing in the MOD Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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The wild goose chase for this easterly is still ongoing in the MOD Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

it will arrive, but hopefully not after April

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The Atlantic is dying a slow death.don't think we will go back to full blown zonel if we did we would get washed away.nature has a way of creating a equilibrium,some of you lot should try living on the south coast of devon.

Edited by BM4PM

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Just back from Finland where it was -15 last night, but even the Finns had got fed up with mild wet, dank weather and were celebrating the first clear, cold and snowy weather of the winter. It's the first time I have seen one smile!

So if the cold is working it's way West, it has a way to go, but has finally started....

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Just back from Finland where it was -15 last night, but even the Finns had got fed up with mild wet, dank weather and were celebrating the first clear, cold and snowy weather of the winter. It's the first time I have seen one smile!

So if the cold is working it's way West, it has a way to go, but has finally started....

I would've hated to go there on Christmas day just gone, 5c and raining . I went to Rovaniemi a few years back and it was -37Posted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings

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We are running out of winter though...sun getting warmer, stronger and longer days....spring snow is so short lived... this rain and mud has cost me dear too.....I lost two much loved horses through accidents in their field due to the heavy, deep and slippery mud...One was an exquisite Spanish mare that was my heart and soul..she broke her shoulder in a fall and my lovely old gypsy cob lady that I have loved for 27 years twisted her arthritic knee and was in so  much pain I had to let her go.  Hearbreaking ...all that rain brings only misery

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18Z a bit of a weird wrong run, puts us in no mans land, would be cold and foggy, even freezing fog next week, its underplaying the Atlantic

 

expect the 00Z to be showing westerlies for  next week

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18Z a bit of a weird wrong run, puts us in no mans land, would be cold and foggy, even freezing fog next week, its underplaying the Atlantic

 

expect the 00Z to be showing westerlies for  next week

you would expect a mildie to make a comment like that, how about somebody start a mod thread for mildies so they can do a live commentary when every run comes out, they can say things like, "yes the azores high is stronger on this run,  good to see heights higher over the med, that scandi blocking is weaker on this run and the cold air is further east" Posted Image

Edited by Tony27
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If only! The building blocks of 1947....

I know back then there was more hp about the first part of the month but they did have a load of zonal b4 it al kicked off...

Wishfull thinking I know but well worth a trip back in time.

I'm game People and stay positive .

post-19059-0-59537200-1389827327_thumb.j

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lol that is 

 

you would expect a mildie to make a comment like that, how about somebody start a mod thread for mildies so they can do a live commentary when every run comes out, they can say things like, "yes the azores high is stronger on this run,  good to see heights higher over the med, that scandi blocking is weaker on this run and the cold air is further east" Posted Image

 

If only people discussed the model output and, based on it, what is likely to happen weather wise in a honest and unbiased manner instead of this "coldie" vs "mildie" silliness! A separate thread for that would be cool.

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Get used to it winter only till spring wet snow then,,,1st time for years seen no snow and now half way through Jan gosh this is a sorry winter almost now resigned to looking towards summer now....

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Even though this winter has been abysmal so far i am still clinging to some hope that we will see some snow before March.  February can be the best month of the winter and i can remember many years when we have had decent snowfall in February which has stuck around for a week or more.  Unfortunately by the time March comes, snow is still readily possible but the chances of it lingering for more than a day (if that) decrease as the month goes on.  Fingers crossed that February produces the goods otherwise this winter will go down as one of the worst for many years in my opinion.

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If only people discussed the model output and, based on it, what is likely to happen weather wise in a honest and unbiased manner instead of this "coldie" vs "mildie" silliness! A separate thread for that would be cool.

This is the banter thread serious stuff for the Model discussion thread.

Normal FI tease for next week promising close to normal winter temps. So far every time by the time we get to T96 someones put the heater on and we're back to normal or above. Grrrrrrrrr.

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