Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[I remember Atlantic 252]

as expeccted ECM crappy model had a fantasy 12Z, back to reality on 00Z with GFS

[Hotspur62]

Frosty-Don't give up yet,just remember March 2013.Taking that into account we have about 10 weeks whereby the snow can fall.I know things don't look good atm but the models are all over the place and as Nick Sussex says it wont take a lot downstream in USA to have a positive impact on us in UK.Admittedly,all parts of jigsaw have to fall in place but while there is a chance there is hope.I know I speak on behalf of all cold lovers that we love your enthusiasm when you show potential cold spells on charts.Keep them coming and I am sure that the potential will turn into reality very soon!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Frosty-Don't give up yet,just remember March 2013.Taking that into account we have about 10 weeks whereby the snow can fall.I know things don't look good atm but the models are all over the place and as Nick Sussex says it wont take a lot downstream in USA to have a positive impact on us in UK.Admittedly,all parts of jigsaw have to fall in place but while there is a chance there is hope.I know I speak on behalf of all cold lovers that we love your enthusiasm when you show potential cold spells on charts.Keep them coming and I am sure that the potential will turn into reality very soon!!

 

yeah all about Feb, march and April, Atlantic weak by then, more blocking to our north, more easterlies and northerlies, Dec and Jan are always westerly, and mostly snowless in the south, March snow still effective can be deep in morning, And April, early Feb snow can hang about all day

[Bristawl Si]

March snow down here is quite rare.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

March snow down here is quite rare.

 

surely not rarer than Dec/early Jan? bristol unlikely to see snow off SW, W'lys

[snowblizzard]

March snow down here is quite rare.

 

Yes, and when it does it's gone in a flash because days are longer and the sun has started to gain too much strength by then!

How often has the Cheltenham Festival been abandoned due to severe frost or snow? 

[Polar Continental]

sorry wrong thread

Edited January 14, 2014 by Polar Continental

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes, and when it does it's gone in a flash because days are longer and the sun has started to gain too much strength by then!

 

but I'm afraid thats UK weather, the darkest time of year say 1 Dec to around 25th Jan, is the most westerly time of the year, wettest and windiest

 

Feb to April way more likely to see cold setups, and snow can still be good nights, evenings and mornings

[Bristawl Si]

 

surely not rarer than Dec/early Jan? bristol unlikely to see snow off SW, W'lys

Perception-wise i think it's rarer than Dec/early Jan. Statiscally i may be wrong.March 2013, and that week of snow up North and N Midlands, N wales, etc was rare in its severity in my view.I would caveat that with the fact the the North of the UK does see snow in March; obviously higher parts can see snow, but down here it's rare, bar an odd day, when it's likely to be gone in a flash, as another poster said.I think March 2013 has clouded some people's judgement of March temps, esp south of the N Midlands.The comparison to Cheltenham Festival is v appropriate (as i'm a horse racing fan) - on many occasion in the last 15 years i've stood out the front of the Guiness Stand 'bathing' in v mild, even warm, temps. 1987 Chelt festival was cold and snowy at times i think.

[Coast]

March snow down here is quite rare.

 

How about April?

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/album/510-snow-in-eastbourne-april-2008/

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 

How about April?

 

 

 

 

 

 

April not too bad, rarer than Feb and march, but more common than Nov to mid Jan here

[snowblizzard]

I think the last few times Cheltenham has been abandoned was due to foot & mouth, waterlogging and high winds!

 

It's been really depressing so far this winter, I haven't even seen a snow flake in cold rain!

 

However, I'm still convinced that we will see a dramatic pattern change during early February which will lead to a short sharp severe cold spell around mid-February with significant snow in some area's.

 

SE normally worst hit by ENE flow.

 

Here's hoping!

Edited January 14, 2014 by snowblizzard

[Bristawl Si]

 

How about April?

Even rarer, down here.I remember when i was about 9 years of age we had 6 inches overnight in the middle of April. By 10 o'clock in the morn it was gone. 

[stainesbloke]

Even rarer, down here.I remember when i was about 9 years of age we had 6 inches overnight in the middle of April. By 10 o'clock in the morn it was gone.

Yes, all this talk of snow in March and April isn't really relevant to southern Britain. We have had snow fall in those months but it usually doesn't settle, on the rare occasions it does it all melts in a matter of hours. Saying that, we have over 6 weeks left of Winter proper, so I'm not sure why there is so much despondency on here. We all know how things can change very quickly! If it was near the end of Feb and we were seeing similar charts then I'd be pessimistic but lots of time yet for a decent cold spell

[snow freak]

so far this winter is going down as one of the worst i can remember for many years.  No snow and hardly any frosts of any significance.  What a washout....literally.  I know we have february and march to go so not quite given up just yet, but anything beyond mid march snowfall wise is hardly worth getting as the sun is too strong for it to last by then.  Snow in February can be very good though.  Just wish the jet stream would go south for a change and stop these incessant lows coming in from the west.  It's not that much to ask for....is it?  oh i forgot...we are in the British Isles.  Damn it!

[R.P. McMurphy]

Could be worse, you could live in Cairo where it's almost impossible to get snow.... Oh, wait...

[Mapantz]

Snow or no snow, it hasn't bothered me one iota. Being a weather enthusiast, I've enjoyed everything that Winter has thrown at me down here.

[cobbett]

Cheer up you lot - 1947 winter didnt start till 22nd Jan !

[Bristawl Si]

 

Cheer up you lot - 1947 winter didnt start till 22nd Jan !

True(ish) but there were some cold and snowy spells leading up to the 'main starting point' of 1947.(IMBY) Not like this Winter.....so far. Edited January 14, 2014 by Bristle boy

[Weather-history]

Cheer up you lot - 1947 winter didnt start till 22nd Jan !

Winter 1882-83 didn't begin until 6th March

[ARNOTT ad]

With their wealth of extra information that they have access to, compared to what joe public get, i'm more than happy to go along with them, regardless of how tricky the situation has been. Their short to mid-range forecasts have been fantastic through Autumn and Winter!

So true!! And whilst everyone on here is hope casting for February, the met office have already practically nailed it off constantly as pretty much 'status quo'. Rubbish winter!Wouldn't it just be fantastic to just see the met office outlook using terms such as/ widespread snow, severe cold, blizzards, drifting etc. we can only imagine. Ps. Did anyone ever save the wintriest outlook they've ever put/had?

[Bobby]

Could be worse, you could live in Cairo where it's almost impossible to get snow.... Oh, wait...

 

Yes AFRICA has had more snow than us this winter. That Atlantic and Gulf Stream really is a mortal enemy with regards to cold for us.

At least the winter hasn't been dull as Mapantz said, there's been lots of interesting weather going on. It could have been worse, like being dominated by a stangnant dull Bartlett and drizzle.

[Summer Sun]

So true!! And whilst everyone on here is hope casting for February, the met office have already practically nailed it off constantly as pretty much 'status quo'. Rubbish winter!Wouldn't it just be fantastic to just see the met office outlook using terms such as/ widespread snow, severe cold, blizzards, drifting etc. we can only imagine.Ps. Did anyone ever save the wintriest outlook they've ever put/had?

 

Late 2010 had a fair few

 

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Dec 2010 to Saturday 25 Dec 2010:

An unsettled and cloudy start on Thursday with rain and hill snow sweeping south followed by sunny intervals and wintry showers. These showers soon turning mostly to snow, especially in exposed northern, eastern and western parts and persisting over the weekend. Some significant accumulations are likely in places and with strong winds at times, there is a significant risk of drifting. Temperatures will be generally very cold with widespread overnight frost and icy stretches developing in places. During the following week there will be further wintry showers and freezing fog may become a hazard. Some southern parts becoming less cold with a risk of heavy rain, particularly in the southwest. However, the southerly extent of snow or northerly extent of rain is very uncertain at the moment.Updated: 1149 on Sat 11 Dec 2010

[snow freak]

The jet stream needs to move southwards.....permenantly.  It's tosh.

[Troubleatmill]

So true!! And whilst everyone on here is hope casting for February, the met office have already practically nailed it off constantly as pretty much 'status quo'. Rubbish winter!Wouldn't it just be fantastic to just see the met office outlook using terms such as/ widespread snow, severe cold, blizzards, drifting etc. we can only imagine.Ps. Did anyone ever save the wintriest outlook they've ever put/had?

 

Not an outlook, but this was a great event nationwide : http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Hd6DuebHliY

Edited January 14, 2014 by Nicholas B