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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Peter H Contributor

Peter H

Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
Posted

The weather outlook have stated today that if this set up continues (which is now very likely) this January will be notable for it's mildness.

They're still clinging to the forlorn hope that things could change later in the month, but I'm not optimistic.

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

3 weeks of zonal puts us well and truly into February...and the clock by then really is ticking on this so-called winter, especially for the more Southern areas. One other thing...just because March 2013 delivered a epic cold spell, it is absolutely no guarantee that this March will be anything like then.

 

This "winter" truly has the potential to be down with the very worst.

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

Someone pass me the paracetamol....

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

3 weeks of zonal puts us well and truly into February...and the clock by then really is ticking on this so-called winter, especially for the more Southern areas. One other thing...just because March 2013 delivered a epic cold spell, it is absolutely no guarantee that this March will be anything like then.

 

This "winter" truly has the potential to be down with the very worst.

 

but feb '13 didnt or April really, so hopefully due a snowy Feb and Apr

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snowblizzard Aficionado

snowblizzard

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
Posted (edited)

I had a feeling that this winter was going to be different or average because of the fine, dry warm summer and very mild autumn.

 

The general NH pattern has been so different to the past few years!

 

But, I have a feeling there may be a sting in it's tail and we'll see a spell of severe wintry weather later this month or early February.

 

The UK weather seems to just swing from one extreme to another, so have patience and keep watching!

Edited by snowblizzard
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Jax Veteran

Jax

Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
Posted

Oh dear is winter over again just one month in?

 

*sigh*

 

 

Better clean the BBQ then.

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

"Don't worry Mr Freezer - we'll make our own Winter"

 

Posted Image

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Gaz1985 Community Regular

Gaz1985

Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
Posted

Who nicked the cold - he dunnit and his country!

 

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JOPRO Contributor

JOPRO

Posted
  • Location: West Northants
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Winters, Warm Summers.
  • Location: West Northants
Posted

Gibby has mentioned snow over northern hills and even southern hills for a time over on the mod thread, must mean there's a bitterly cold easterly on the way. That's as close to a ramp as you get from him!

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snow freak Aficionado

snow freak

Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
Posted

So where is this frigid cold some of the forecasters were predicting back in late Autumn?  Yes, they forecast a mildish first half of winter but then said the second half from mid January through February would herald colder conditions.  Yeah right.  Looking like this winter is going down the pan and one that i just want over with now.  I know we still have February and March to go, but anything wintry beyond March and its not worth having as the sun is getting too strong and any lying snow would soon be melted away anyway.  I think the run of cold winters is over and done with now imo, and we should expect a run of mild ones now for the next few winters at least.  So depressing!

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UV-RAY Seasoned

UV-RAY

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley
Posted

You know things look grim when Frosty refuses to post any charts in the MOD thread. I suppose this weekend may have some sort of interest with some surface cold and slack easterly with a trough nearby. hell we may even get some sleet out of this set up. 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted

I believe once again what this Winter is showing is that we shouldn't even bother looking at the tropospheric models until the Stratospheric one's are supportive of a cold outbreak in our part of the hemisphere.

 

The PV remains well below average and we have sub 498dm air in Eastern Canafa which is going to continue fuelling the jetstream.

 

The are signs that the Stratosphere will have warmed sufficiently by month end to support tropospheric cold in Western Europe, but with lag times, I would be looking at 10th February before any outbreak occurs.

 

This late proper Winter would tie in with the expected Strat forecast that Chiono gave at the start of the season.

 

Whatever the tropospheric output shows and no matter the countless pages about Easterlies, no cold will get here until the Stratosphere says so.

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted

I believe once again what this Winter is showing is that we shouldn't even bother looking at the tropospheric models until the Stratospheric one's are supportive of a cold outbreak in our part of the hemisphere.

 

The PV remains well below average and we have sub 498dm air in Eastern Canafa which is going to continue fuelling the jetstream.

 

The are signs that the Stratosphere will have warmed sufficiently by month end to support tropospheric cold in Western Europe, but with lag times, I would be looking at 10th February before any outbreak occurs.

 

This late proper Winter would tie in with the expected Strat forecast that Chiono gave at the start of the season.

 

Whatever the tropospheric output shows and no matter the countless pages about Easterlies, no cold will get here until the Stratosphere says so.

 

 

February the 10th, you say? Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

(Courtesy of bjaykent on the MOD thread)

 

When has the CFS ever been wrong? Posted Image

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

GFS == Recycle bin everybody aboard for the deep FI zonal express.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Just popped in for a quick moan about the winter of 2013/4

My God i didnt think anything could rival 1988/9-i was wrong!!

Yup we're after that record we're just behind right now but I'm sure we can catch up sadly.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

Even the GEFS (member no'11) shows an Easterly at 144h....http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=11&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 But theres no cold air over the continent atm, So its just a waste Posted Image

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

ECM model seems to produce weird fantasy charts, GFS on the money here, zonal all the way 2 weeks, ECM may be right eventually if it keeps churning out these charts in April

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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted

Was quite chilly this morning. When is it going to warm up Posted Image

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Was quite chilly this morning. When is it going to warm up Posted Image

 

is that a wind up post, my location is still in autumn, I am wondering when it is going to cool down! so are majority on here

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conor123 Community Regular

conor123

Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
Posted

ECM model seems to produce weird fantasy charts, GFS on the money here, zonal all the way 2 weeks, ECM may be right eventually if it keeps churning out these charts in April

I definitely think the ECM is the most unreliable of them all, massive changes from run to run, GFS is definitely (unfortunately) realistic with it's output for the rest of the month.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

I definitely think the ECM is the most unreliable of them all, massive changes from run to run, GFS is definitely (unfortunately) realistic with it's output for the rest of the month.

 

reminds me a bit of CFS and james madden, hopeless model,

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