Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[SnowObsessor90]

The weather is just stagnant atm and with the pv position and the euroish high its not looking like changing.dry and hopefully bright is the best we can expect imo

I'd be content enough the high managed to hang on until Christmas and was positioned favorably enough  to provide weather of the sunny and frosty variety, sods laws dictates that it'll more likely be a long fetch SW flow with temps of 13-15 by the time we get to that point though.

Edited December 5, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[cold snap]

I think I feel more sorry for the alps than us.

Must be hating this projected output .

If this pattern persists we want be alone ,much of Europe will be In the same situation weather wise

[Gord]

Hmmm....it's the 5th December 2013.

 

Seem to remember people feeling glum about the model output on the 5th January 2013 saying that there was no hope for the month.

 

20cm of snow by the 20th January!

[Tony27]

well im not shocked by what ECM is showing in FI, but is it yet again leading us down this?

 

[AderynCoch]

I'm just annoyed by the fact the high just wants to sit to our south and stay there. It simply refuses to align itself in a way that could give us something wintry, whether it be a full-on easterly or just some festive frost and fog. There's been far too much slack westerly grey crap of late with an absence of frost.

[weather_it_will]

No sign of winter in any of the models. Maybe it is still summer?

 

We need to get shot of the high pressure before we can talk about winter.

 

Bring on Winter 1947 is what I say!

Edited December 5, 2013 by 'ColdIsBest'

[I remember Atlantic 252]

No sign of winter in any of the models. Maybe it is still summer?

 

We need to get shot of the high pressure before we can talk about winter.

 

Bring on Winter 1947 is what I say!

 

No good getting shot of high pressure? will turn zonal then, and a zonal reset is risky way to cold

[Methuselah]

well im not shocked by what ECM is showing in FI, but is it yet again leading us down this?

 

But, we are only 5 days' into winter?

[weather_it_will]

But, we are only 5 days' into winter?

That's it...winter is over!

Edited December 5, 2013 by 'ColdIsBest'

[Tony27]

No sign of winter in any of the models. Maybe it is still summer?

 

We need to get shot of the high pressure before we can talk about winter.

 

Bring on Winter 1947 is what I say!

i'd happily settle for 2 months of these tedious synoptics if it mean't we had another Feb 1947 

[cheese]

That's it...winter is over!

Yup - winter is over because Ukraine will be colder than the UK.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

think everyone knows really that there will be no cold spell in Dec, other than possible inversion, even that looks unlikely due to cloud,

 

Scotland and Ireland could be in for one of the mildest Decembers on record

[SnowObsessor90]

I'm starting to see  more and more talk about a Zonal pattern developing in the MOD thread, heck I've even seen someone  mention the possibility of another late 90s/ early 00s winter and I can't say I never saw it coming,  ever since earlier in the year there's been very little in the  way of below average temperatures with heights tending to be lower over Greenland so to see that general theme continue really isn't that much of a surprise.

Edited December 6, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[snow freak]

i have no doubt the weather patterns will change to something substantially cold.........in May!

[forecaster]

That's it...winter is over!

 

But, it's still only November!

 

Oh. Wait. Sorry.

[Tony27]

truly dire output today no getting away from it and very hard not to have a moan, all we can do is grin and bare it and hope there is light at the end of the tunnel, if these synoptics came in feb after a cold snowy winter so far i wouldn't mind as it would feel spring like and it would be a bit of a relief after all the cold, but to get this in december is horrible

 

typically i very much doubt this high pressure will be so stubborn sitting over us and to our south next summer, this summer was probably a one off

 

i have not seen a flake of snow since january, imagine if we didn't see a warm sunny day for 11 months, gavin, botts and joe public would be slitting their wrists

Edited December 6, 2013 by Tony27

[Ali1977]

We could still have the coldest winter ever, 47 , 62 both started Boxing Day or later...

The express said it...

[igloo]

well i have to say this evenings gfs run is the worst run i have ever seen in the 4 years of model watching the ski resorts in the alps will have a hard time running up to christmas if we get a setup like this

[swfc]

Well i didnt think it could get anyworse !Also if anyone says or mentions a cooling continental flow may come in and make it feel seasonal"i will find you and kill you"!!!!! .Anyway on too the next run ete 

We could still have the coldest winter ever, 47 , 62 both started Boxing Day or later...
The express said it...

Yep you never no i guess 

[andymusic]

I think we've all got to remember that we have been spoilt these past few years with some great "easily" obtained snowy and cold set ups in winter - this year I think it's gonna need a bit of patience (just like in many past winters) - and we may still get our cold and snowy "XMAS PRESENT" just after xmas and into January 2014 - just enjoy the lower heating bills for now lol

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think we've all got to remember that we have been spoilt these past few years with some great "easily" obtained snowy and cold set ups in winter - this year I think it's gonna need a bit of patience (just like in many past winters) - and we may still get our cold and snowy "XMAS PRESENT" just after xmas and into January 2014 - just enjoy the lower heating bills for now lol

 

Yeah, seeing these charts at the minute is like trading in your brand new Porsche Carrera for a clapped out Rover Metro without any financial return on the former.

[Barry12]

One positive to take out of this is James Madden will have some questions to answer.

[Tony27]

I think we've all got to remember that we have been spoilt these past few years with some great "easily" obtained snowy and cold set ups in winter - this year I think it's gonna need a bit of patience (just like in many past winters) - and we may still get our cold and snowy "XMAS PRESENT" just after xmas and into January 2014 - just enjoy the lower heating bills for now lol

we have also seen some very mild weather in recent december's too but that is forgotten on here for some reason, anyway truly dire output from the models today and if anybody mentions surface cold again i will throw my computer out of the window, high pressure in winter does not always equal surface cold regardless of 850 temps i have barely seen an air frost this autumn and winter so far from all this high pressure

 

also can people please stop mentioning 1963 or 1947 that really is just stupid blind faith

Edited December 6, 2013 by Tony27

[terrier]

Yes the charts maybe bad but let's look at the positives. Christmas people can get to family. We will all save a fortune on heating bills. James madden going to look a tool. And it will feel pleasant in any sunshine. I'm happy with that for dec then bring the cold and snow mid jan early feb time

[forecaster]

One positive to take out of this is James Madden will have some questions to answer.

 

Did that happen at the end of winter 11/12?