Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[MP-R]

Really not too bothered about anything from the easterly quadrant just at the moment. Now's the time for all those sunshine and shower days we had over the winter.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Even though details with regards to this South-Easterly tracking Low is still likely to change, it's too bad something like what is shown for this Tuesday didn't occur a few weeks earlier for the snow fans. Thanks alot GFS and your devious model crew! ;-(

As a result, the above will probably likely to be just a rain event for the cold and snow lovers, although I have known channel Lows/European troughs to deliver snow on their Northern and North-Western flanks in March before. Maybe if the models were to improve any available cold pooling to the East further in the next few updates, then maybe the cold and snow lovers could still see a wintry surprise next week, especially if you live on hill or mountain (which admittedly wouldn't really be much different than the snow-on-hills shower setup were currently having). Though is probably more unlikely than it is likely. Man, really do need to stop filling my hopes up (lol).

[Summer Sun]

Even though details with regards to this South-Easterly tracking Low is still likely to change, it's too bad something like what is shown for this Tuesday didn't occur a few weeks earlier for the snow fans. Thanks alot GFS and your devious model crew! ;-(

image.jpg

As a result, the above will probably likely to be just a rain event for the cold and snow lovers, although I have known channel Lows/European troughs to deliver snow on their Northern and North-Western flanks in March before. Maybe if the models were to improve any available cold pooling to the East further in the next few updates, then maybe the cold and snow lovers could still see a wintry surprise next week, especially if you live on hill or mountain (which admittedly wouldn't really be much different than the snow-on-hills shower setup were currently having). Though is probably more unlikely than it is likely. Man, really do need to stop filling my hopes up (lol).

 

Temperatures for the chart you posted

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Temperatures for the chart you posted

 

Thanks. Certainly quite a temperature contrast between some of the South-Eastern parts and some of the North-Eastern spots on that chart. :-o

[I remember Atlantic 252]

think a snowless winter now confirmed for most southern areas. I'm not a fan/believer of FI ECM 240 charts, GFS looks closer with no cold air and average temps

[Peter H]

Finally we have an easterly. Sadly, a bit late :

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Finally we have an easterly. Sadly, a bit late :

 

not a true easterly though, 24th Mar last year was a true easterly, and was very snowy, lasted until around 8th Apr

[mike Meehan]

not a true easterly though, 24th Mar last year was a true easterly, and was very snowy, lasted until around 8th Apr

It does depend a lot on the temperature of the originating air - I doubt that it would be cold enough this year.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Easterlies with an arctic continental source can still deliver widespread snowfalls at this time of year, especially when fronts push against the cold air, though to get sunshine and snow showers setups we increasingly need more of an arctic maritime source (even the ones we had in late March/early April last year, which were about as cold as it gets for an arctic continental sourced easterly, only gave shallow convection over the North Sea).  But easterlies with a polar continental source are rarely cold enough after mid-March.

[March Blizzard]

The continent and seas were much colder at this stage last year, so any easterly this year, even on the same respective date, would have nowhere near the same bite after a very mild European winter.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The continent and seas were much colder at this stage last year, so any easterly this year, even on the same respective date, would have nowhere near the same bite after a very mild European winter.

Absolutely. Nail hit bang on there mate. 

Think we just need to start fresh in November and write this diabolical winter right off!

[March Blizzard]

Absolutely. Nail hit bang on there mate. Think we just need to start fresh in November and write this diabolical winter right off!

Yep. A complete non-starter this winter. Hopefully a major flip to cold come November/December.

[phil nw.]

Wow, an 80% snow risk tonight! Let's have a look at the total precipitation... oh 0.6mm - you can never win, can you?

Yes mainly showery stuff so nothing significanti wouldn't expect.Any that does lie will tend to be higher up-Pennines.Peaks etc.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Must... not... get... the... straws... out...

Should next Winter be dominated with a strong Canadian/Greenland Polar Vortex, I'm personally going to see to it that the cold and snow lovers push Frosty onto a plane and send him to Canada equipped with a large box of dynamite. That Polar Vortex wouldn't stand a chance against Frosty and his pack of explosives, and High Pressure during that 2014/15 Winter could then become our new king to the North and North-West (although if you dislike the cold and snow, then that 'king' might become your nemesis instead). ;-D

Edited March 26, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine

[Peter H]

It's really frustrating now. Had this set up occurred in December/January we'd have ended up with a cold, frosty, and potentially snowy spell. How come these situations always happen at the wrong time of the year. GRRRRRRRRRRR

Still, hopefully this is the prelude to a long hot and thundery summer followed by something a bit better next winter. I live in hope.

[knocker]

Delete. Wrong thread.

Edited March 27, 2014 by knocker

[Richard2901]

Absolutely dismal and beyond depressing output in what is shaping up to be the ultimate year from hell.

 

The sun has gone now and god knows when it will return. Easterly gloom and drizzle for the rest of the month with maxima likely to be just below average at around 7-8C with mild minima of 4-6C. What a fantastic way to end the worst ever October to March period. Simply hideous and looking further ahead the output for early April is also as garbage as it's possible to get. A plethora of disgusting charts pretty much all showing some kind of foul SE flow  

 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

GFS is showing high pressure building in FI as the jet heads north again. Odds on an April akin to 2007?

[Peter H]

I mean when was the last time we had a truely snowless winter?,

2011/2012 was completely snowless here and over most other Northern and North Western parts of the UK, and virtually frost free throughout much of December and all of January and February.Despite the exceptional weather of late November/December 2010, the best in these parts in recent years really has been 2009/2010. This was more reminiscent of what I remember as a child i.e. every winter of the 1960's, and as a young adult in the early/mid 1980's.Proper winters now really do seem to be the exception rather than the rule. Maybe it's all down to global warming that even the Baltic rarely freezes in winter these days. Edited March 29, 2014 by Peter H

[Coopsy]

2011/2012 was completely snowless here and over most other Northern and North Western parts of the UK, and virtually frost free throughout much of December and all of January and February.Despite the exceptional weather of late November/December 2010, the best in these parts in recent years really has been 2009/2010. This was more reminiscent of what I remember as a child i.e. every winter of the 1960's, and as a young adult in the early/mid 1980's.Proper winters now really do seem to be the exception rather than the rule. Maybe it's all down to global warming that even the Baltic rarely freezes in winter these days.

Tell that Global Warming theory to us folk in North America this year lol

[johnholmes]

2011/2012 was completely snowless here and over most other Northern and North Western parts of the UK, and virtually frost free throughout much of December and all of January and February. 

blimey Peter that is a truly sweeping statement, have you looked at places away from your area? Even here we had a couple of days with snow falling so I find it hard to believe that lowland sites over 'most Northern and North Western parts of the UK', had no snow?

[damianslaw]

 

Absolutely dismal and beyond depressing output in what is shaping up to be the ultimate year from hell.

 

The sun has gone now and god knows when it will return. Easterly gloom and drizzle for the rest of the month with maxima likely to be just below average at around 7-8C with mild minima of 4-6C. What a fantastic way to end the worst ever October to March period. Simply hideous and looking further ahead the output for early April is also as garbage as it's possible to get. A plethora of disgusting charts pretty much all showing some kind of foul SE flow  

 

 

 

Yes NE Scotland has favoured poorly sunshine wise since October, and lack of cold crisp weather thanks to little in the way of northerlies, northeasterlies, northwesterlies or high pressure overhead. Now we have a pattern change to something much more settled, unfortunately the NE coast is going to be plagued by low cloud thanks to SE drift.

 

NE Scotland does best under long fetch southwesterlies, indeed its the only part of the country I suspect where such conditions are rejoiced. I personally detest them as they mean low cloud and drizzle in Cumbria.

 

I'm sure the time will come for NE Scotland to enjoy some decent sunny dry pleasant weather- NW Scotland usually fayres better than NE Scotland in spring, but the tables tend to turn come summer and last through until autumn.

[cheese]

What a shyte day - overcast and cold until 2pm while everywhere else basks in warm sun. I knew this would happen. Rinse and repeat tomorrow.

Edited March 29, 2014 by cheese

[conor123]

Think the former stratocumulus mania days of 2008-2012 are now being phased out by this new sun blocking breed of mid-level sun blocking smog :lol:

Gotta admire the sun shield for reinventing itself I guess.

[phil nw.]

Locking this thread in a minute and opening a new one for the Spring/Summer period to come.