Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

March '14 will not be a repeat of '12 0r '13. It will be dominated by the Atlantic, rain and wind most days and that ECM 12Z run is way off, GFS 12Z more realistic

I disagree. I think we are heading for a warm spring. April 2007, May 2008, April 2011, March 2012 and now I will call March 2014 to follow that pattern with long period of high pressure sat right over us. Of course you could be right too, but this is the ramping thread so we don't have to back things up with charts on here. My prediction is based on the above mentioned recent springs having prolonged warm spells not discounting the very cold Spring 2013. Edited March 1, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[phil nw.]

I think there will be a fair number of people looking for sun and dry weather for at least a few days after the horrendous wet Winter and it looks like this may well be on the cards from later next week.

 

Encouraging mean outputs pushing the jet further north and pressure rising over Europe should raise daytime temps. towards 12-15C in a few days with some warm sunshine especially further away from western coasts.

As ever in this setup the further nw the more cloud and rain we will see with fronts wavering across the north and a brisk westerly wind at times.

 

Too early in the year to rely on a long dry spell but a few days to a week of dry conditions for the south looks quite possible.

 

On a historical observation i will say that in March we can get quite rapid changes in air mass types and i wouldn't bet against a cold plunge from the north or north west behind a cold front at some point later in the month.

[WhingeingWurzle]

Agree with that Phil, yesterday down here (Somerset) was really spring-like. Disappeared again today though but high hopes that later this week and next weekend will bring more sun and warmth after this lousy excuse of a winter!

[MP-R]

I disagree. I think we are heading for a warm spring. April 2007, May 2008, April 2011, March 2012 and now I will call March 2014 to follow that pattern with long period of high pressure sat right over us. Of course you could be right too, but this is the ramping thread so we don't have to back things up with charts on here. My prediction is based on the above mentioned recent springs having prolonged warm spells not discounting the very cold Spring 2013.

 

Oh gawd I hope not. A normal spring followed by a nice summer would do me just fine. Only 2011 managed a mediocre summer out of that list and it was just that - mediocre. Wouldn't mind another spring 2003 or 2005 if it leads on to that type of summer, especially the former. Wet and wild first half of March, very spring/summerlike second half, a real mixed bag in April with hot and cold, then a heavily convective May getting a lot of the rain out of the way before that beautiful summer.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

As much as I loved April 2011, I enjoyed July 2013 more. Which leads me to ask..

Has there ever been a well above avg CET spring followed by similarly above average CET summer?

Edited March 2, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Peter H]

Has there ever been a well above avg CET spring followed by similarly above average CET summer?

 

 

The summer of 1975 was like that in the northwest of the UK, including here in Northern Ireland. Persistent high pressure over Scotland led to a settled and quite warm spring (although we had snow at Easter) and a long hot summer. Interestingly, the winter of 19774/1975 was also completely snowless here, much like this one so you never know.

 

Still, glad to see the back of this winter now.

 

One of the worst in recent years. .

[Tony27]

high pressure may seem like a novelty now but do people want the next 6-7 months to be dominated by high pressure? people soon got bored of the wet weather after a few weeks, and i predict come april or may people want want some rain or showers, it will feel like a life time till next winter, i am not ready for warmth yet

Edited March 2, 2014 by Tony27

[summer blizzard]

As much as I loved April 2011, I enjoyed July 2013 more. Which leads me to ask..Has there ever been a well above avg CET spring followed by similarly above average CET summer?

 

If we take the top 30 springs and summers (top 10% for CET roughly) then 1779, 1798, 1868, 1933, 1959, 2003 all achieved the feat of being on both so about 2% of years, we are clearly not overdue.

 

The notion that individual warm spring months lead to cool summers is also poor. There have been many individual warm spring months preceding a top 10% summer and many top 10 springs which then saw a hot summer month. Lets look..

 

Top 30 summers preceded by a hot spring month (we'll go 1.5C above average so March: 8.1C, April: 10C and May: 13.2C)..

 

March 1997, April 1733, April 1762, April 1798, May 1808, May 1868 and May 1947, this is 20-25% of all top 30 summers were preceded by a hot spring month. The fact that not one of March 12, May 08 or April's 07 and 11 were followed by a hot summer is therefore a statistical oddity.

 

Top 30 springs followed by a hot summer month (1.5C above average again so June: 16C, July: 18.2C and August: 17.9C)...

 

June 1960, June 1775, June 1798, June 1822, June 2003, July 1868, August 1990,  August 2003 and August 1997. That's near enough a third of top 30 springs which produce a hot summer month so the fact that the springs of 09, 11 and 13 were not followed by a hot summer month is an oddity.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Thanks for that. Really good stats there. There won't be any shortage of water this summer but that is not ruling out a dry summer.

I would call a similar year to either 2011/2012/2013 is on the cards.

By that I mean we are going to get clearly defined periods of weather. It could well be that our longest sustained anticyclonic spell of weather occurs in spring again. I think we might be heading for something similar to 2011 at this pointc with a NW/SE spilt. But that is pure conjecture on my behalf!

Edited March 2, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I hope if we do get a rubbish summer, we will see supercells similar to those on the 28th June 2012, you had one go right over you in Coventry didnt you Blueskies? The one that pounded Burbage and Hinckley with tennis balls!!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I hope if we do get a rubbish summer, we will see supercells similar to those on the 28th June 2012, you had one go right over you in Coventry didnt you Blueskies? The one that pounded Burbage and Hinckley with tennis balls!!

I stuck my head out of the window and literally saw it barrelling towards me. My parents live in Hinckley and their car is currently sitting on their drive still covered in tiny dents - its too old to be worth repairing. Like you say. just 2 miles down the road in Burbage the hail was a lot more severe and body repair shops were busy for the rest of the summer I imagine as well as glaziers.That is the damage inflicted on 1000s of cars in the area.

Edited March 2, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

My goodness. That is the biggest hail I've seen yet in the UK without a doubt. It even looks bad enough on camera, and I bet it doesn't do any justice at all !

[Tony27]

charts are about as interesting as the antiques roadshow atm, high pressure hooray!! we have the next 6 months for bloomin high pressure, im not looking for it now, maybe its time to move on from chasing snowy charts and throw the towel in, but i hope we don't get some annoying arctic blast in april just when im ready for spring and want warmer weather, it's 9 months till winter starts again my misses could get pregnant and have the baby before i next see snow again probably

[March Blizzard]

charts are about as interesting as the antiques roadshow atm, high pressure hooray!! we have the next 6 months for bloomin high pressure, im not looking for it now, maybe its time to move on from chasing snowy charts and throw the towel in, but i hope we don't get some annoying arctic blast in april just when im ready for spring and want warmer weather, it's 9 months till winter starts again my misses could get pregnant and have the baby before i next see snow again probably

Yep. I'm not a fan of "reverse" springs either; ones that see mild/warm in March when cold is still possible and northerlies in May when genuine warmth should be on the cards.There's no rush, there's plenty of time for warm, settled weather.

[Milhouse]

But a dry spell is well overdue so it doesnt matter that it has occurred in the cool half of Spring. But i wouldnt want constant high pressure persisting for ages. Except in Summer. Spring should be characteised by showery spells from time to time.

[Average Joe]

So much more enjoyable on the Mod thread now that there are charts being posted and focus is on what they're showing rather than endless seeking the elusive snowflake. Irrespective of weather preferences it makes so much better reading when contributors aren't squabbling over which model is an "upgrade".

[simshady]

So much more enjoyable on the Mod thread now that there are charts being posted and focus is on what they're showing rather than endless seeking the elusive snowflake. Irrespective of weather preferences it makes so much better reading when contributors aren't squabbling over which model is an "upgrade".

 

Yes, ten posts a day is great! 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I agree with the people complaining about a lack of cold. Shame we haven't seen any. But if we can't have a northerly or easterly, the next best thing is a southerly. Anything but rain.

I announced on Facebook to my friends that there was a strong signal for anticyclonic conditions by mid March. Had many likes! Believe me most of the population dont care whether it is 6C or 16C as long as it is dry.

So I had a minor panic this morning when the charts starting showing something different.

It seems this forum is now split 50/50 over those wanting a dry and anticyclonic March culminating in a March 2012 warm spell and those wanting a rerun of March 2013.

Then there are a few who wouldn't mind a mix of both!

Edited March 3, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[March Blizzard]

I agree with the people complaining about a lack of cold. Shame we haven't seen any. But if we can't have a northerly or easterly, the next best thing is a southerly. Anything but rain.I announced on Facebook to my friends that there was a strong signal for anticyclonic conditions by mid March. Had many likes! Believe me most of the population dont care whether it is 6C or 16C as long as it is dry.So I had a minor panic this morning when the charts starting showing something different.It seems this forum is now split 50/50 over those wanting a dry and anticyclonic March culminating in a March 2012 warm spell and those wanting a rerun of March 2013.Then there are a few who wouldn't mind a mix of both!

As someone who works outdoor I agree with the "anything but rain" point completely. Like you said, I honestly wouldn't mind Mar 2012 like conditions, I actually found that spell very pleasant, but I'd rather conditions closer to 2013. By April, I myself will be weary of cold.The weather will do what it wants and, like it or not, we will all have to just get on with it.

[phil nw.]

Current charts may be boring to some but i see the upcoming build of high pressure across Europe and the Azores as a welcome change from the Winter Atlantic conveyor of lows.

Yes disappointing wrt lack of Snow and cold but it is what it is and a bit of warmth and sun would be welcomed by many i guess to lift the spirits after months of cloud,rain,wind and gloomy skies.

Spring often sees sudden changes in air mass type as the vortex starts to break up and can be quite an interesting period of model watching where a warm settled period can quickly disappear and be replaced by a late cold plunge from the north.

[MP-R]

Personally I don't want a March 2012 or 2013, just a normal March would be nice. Like I've said on another thread, something like March 2004 or 2005 would be welcome - cold dry first third, blustery and unsettled middle third, then warmer dry final third. Can't stand deep anticyclones in the first half of March. It's like if we were to have a potent northerly in the first half of September. Yuck.

[Steve Edgefield]

I just want one relatively normal month of weather. I don't want April/May warmth at the beginning of March. Yes some sun and dry would be welcome but some normal temps and frosty nights would feel more seasonal. This has been a truly awful few months and I'd like a bit of normality to prevail.

[March Blizzard]

I just want one relatively normal month of weather. I don't want April/May warmth at the beginning of March. Yes some sun and dry would be welcome but some normal temps and frosty nights would feel more seasonal. This has been a truly awful few months and I'd like a bit of normality to prevail.

I agree with your middle two sentences, today was great; cool temperatures that felt fairly warm in direct sunlight with clear skies and frost over night - beautiful. I've just been for a walk taking in the novelty of cold air, clear skies and no wind. Very refreshing after relentless mildness, wind and rain for so long.

[Average Joe]

Yes, ten posts a day is great! 

Better than hundreds of posts of one liners saying, "Eyes down for the 12z" or "I'll bank the ECM at +240" with nothing to support it or actual comments on what the models are showing. 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Prediction March 2014 will be in top 10 driest and warmest on record. Let's see if either come true. One things for sure, the first 15 days are not going to be as cold as the first half of March 2013.