Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[OldMetMan]

great to read a sensible, blanced post on gw , thanks old met man

models toying with pressure rise to the south for late feb, some warmth on the cards?

Thanks Mushymanrob, I just get p'd off with the same old stuff being trotted out. I feel better for writing that!

Edited February 14, 2014 by OldMetMan

[mike Meehan]

well cannot believe there over 100 pages on model moans !!! suppose it shows lack of real cold this winter, and numerous model let downs (them dam models)

 

when I',m feeling low because there's no snow I tune in to MY favourite you tube clip (has been for couple of years now) definitely worth a watch.

 

what I wouldn,t give to struggle like these guys ( if only)  TURN UP THE SPEAKERS ) hope you enjoy.  I do.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1xJ2DBTeV4

 

panda 4x4 forever.

This looks like even more fun

[mike Meehan]

Personally, I put it all down to the jet streams which have a mind of their own - some years we have had them south of us for a time and received some nice easterlies as a result, but this season it appears that it started off with a very wet spell in Indonesia with the jet stream taking a route NE over the Pacific, then SE over North America leaving much of Canada and the USA in the cold (but surprisingly there have been mild days in Alaska where on a number of days Anchorage has reported + values in temperature). Then it has continued across the Atlantic making a bee line for us, meanwhile the lows, as is their want, have followed this track, starting off as very cold Canadian air and voila, we have the march of pretty intense lows heading straight for our front door step after picking up lots of Atlantic warmth and moisture en route, the temperature differences between the cold Canadian and the warmish Atlantic air being just what they need to make them grow big and strong. They haven't just stopped there but marched straight on into eastern Russia where the first part of the winter was very mild for them with just a shortish interlude in between when the NW Russia Scandy high decided to try and put up a fight but alas the Atlantic was too strong for it, so now we are in the position where pretty well all of Europe is pretty mild for the middle of February and there no longer appears to be enough time for the cold to re-assert itself.

 

It's a bit upsetting that the Middle East has seen something which most of have not this season - SNOW - but fear not, the advancing seasons will show these jet streams who is boss and as we advance into spring I expect to see these tramlines dismantled and with a bit of luck they will change to a more northerly track leaving us to cuddle up to the Azores High for the summer.

 

Just because this winter has been mild it does not mean to say that next winter will be the same - Over a period of years, decades even, the weather tends to balance out.

 

Just think yourselves lucky you are not living in that 'red spot' area of Jupiter - there has been a storm raging there for the last 300 years to our knowledge.

 

Edited February 14, 2014 by mike Meehan

[Milhouse]

Well i like the ECM. Not sure if there would be a meandering front straddling the country in FI but long fetch southwesterlies such as those shown wont be a bad thing for flood hit areas.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well i like the ECM. Not sure if there would be a meandering front straddling the country in FI but long fetch southwesterlies such as those shown wont be a bad thing for flood hit areas.

 

agree but ECM in FI I dont trust, I tend to go with GFS, which brings more of the same

 

monday looks like a horrendous day, more flooding I think for areas

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not as windy though. The low-pressure looks nowhere near as deep as they have recently been.

 

No not as windy, but to me it looks wetter than recently, as it seems to be moving slowly, HP to our east cannot move front through

 

Also on 12Z it still had the same front over the UK on tuesday, so a washout tuesday? sunday and wednesday look like the only dry days

Edited February 14, 2014 by IrememberAtlantic252

[Spah1]

Right thats it - booked an hour of snow fun at the chill factor Manchester for the little one! (and me). Can't afford a ski trip so this is the only way of having a snow ball fight this year!

[Tony27]

has anybody not given up on winter yet? the Mod thread is dead even the lurkers have gone

[Peter H]

has anybody not given up on winter yet? the Mod thread is dead even the lurkers have gone

 

Yep, I think that's definitely it for this year Tony. More or less completely snowless. 

Can't see March turning out like last year, which was quite exceptional. 

[Tony27]

lucky you, it was just cold, dull and dry here last march, i haven't seen a flake of snow for 13 months now. (plays violins)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

March will definitely start stormy, same as Dec Jan and Feb, any snow will be 2nd half of March, and probably temporary, bit like the snow on 11th Feb,

 

wouldnt be surprised if late march was our coldest spell of minimum temps

[snowblizzard]

Well that's it then! The yanks are saying the worlds weather systems (jet streams) are probably changing and weather patterns will be locked for longer periods of time. Well, that's definitely the case this winter but I'd bet my mortgage (if I had one) that it will be totally different next winter.

[OldMetMan]

Well that's it then! The yanks are saying the worlds weather systems (jet streams) are probably changing and weather patterns will be locked for longer periods of time. Well, that's definitely the case this winter but I'd bet my mortgage (if I had one) that it will be totally different next winter.

In my experience, the position of the jet has always been variable, and has also stayed in the same relative position for extended periods, hence the extreme summers/winters there have been. They are talking about it as if it were a new phenomenon, when it isn't. It just happens that the location this winter has been to such as to bring LPs on a more southerly path, just as it did in summer 2007, when all the floods occurred then.

 

You're right next winter could be completely different. Who knows also whether the jet may shift again this year before it warms up too much. The US forecast guidance today is talking about a marked change from a zonal to a highly amplified pattern across the US in the next few days - that's bound to affect us downstream.

 

If there is one thing I have learned over so many years of watching the weather - never say never!

[Gord]

Looking increasingly likely that this winter is gong to join the wall of shame in terms of cold and snow. Really dissappointing but there will be other winters. Summer 2004 was a good lesson in that you mustn't base a seasonal forecast on what happened the previous year.

 

I do like a spell of wild, wet and windy weather now and again. Around Christmas, the low pressures were fascinating. But now it's just too much. Too many people are suffering and the landscape is simply looking awful. Also been hating the way the models have been teasing us with cold spells or more recently...drier settled spells which have come to nought. But the models misbehave a lot anyway!

 

As for next winter...I'll be moving away from permanent teaching to supply teaching from September so I can give more support to my wife in her business. So next winter, snow days will cost me a days wages so I may have a diiferent outlook on snow next year! Sods law says get ready for a 1963 style winter as I sit in my cold home...unable to heat it!

[sundog]

Would not be surprised if next winter is a dry fairly cold and frosty with not one single storm with hp in control for most of the time.

[stewfox]

has anybody not given up on winter yet? the Mod thread is dead even the lurkers have gone

 

I am waiting for the first 'will we see a sub CET 3c' again and the 'thoughts for spring' 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still remember that post by Mr Murr on 10th February at 21.01

 

had an experiment to see which model would be closest in 8 days time (Tue 18th Feb) JMA, ECM and GFS, of course it is likely to be GFS as expected but Mr Murr was convinced it wouldn't be and slagged me off

 

he will now not go back to that experiment results on Tue 18th Feb because GFS is closest

[snowblizzard]

Yep, I think that's definitely it for this year Tony. More or less completely snowless. 

Can't see March turning out like last year, which was quite exceptional. 

This winter, not this year!

The hunt starts again at the end of October 2014

Edited February 16, 2014 by snowblizzard

[snowblizzard]

I've definitely missed the excitement of watching the models and hoping that stella charts come to fruition and deliver cold, snowy ice days. 

Although, having said that, it has been less stressful.

The absence of those dreaded words 'massive downgrade'!

Edited February 16, 2014 by snowblizzard

[gillybean]

tumbleweed .... across the forums. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I've definitely missed the excitement of watching the models and hoping that stella charts come to fruition and deliver cold, snowy ice days. 

Although, having said that, it has been less stressful.

The absence of those dreaded words 'massive downgrade'!

 

Apart from the fantasy members who believe 240 ECM charts will come off, and then its gone on next run

[Gord]

I've simply been getting fed up with being reminded daily on this forum that there is no chance of cold or snowy weather in the output when it's been bleeding obvious. It's almost like rubbing our faces in it.

 

So...here is my outlook...by using the same method....

 

...there is no chance of sunny and over 20c weather in the outputs....

 

...there...all is OK now!

 

(P.S.This is an incredibly unfair post I know!)

 

(P.P.S. I'm sorry)

 

(P.P.P.S. If it does exceed 20c over the next 2 weeks...I would like to take the credit please!)

Edited February 16, 2014 by Gord

[Gord]

Could've been worse, could have had a powercut?

 

Actually...the powercut wasn't so bad when you think that it stopped me from looking at the dreadful outlook.

[Peter H]

This winter, not this year!

The hunt starts again at the end of October 2014

 

Indeed, only 15 weeks until June 1st, then the summer and we'll be back to Autumn and the build up to Christmas again so it'll fly in.

 

Unless something really takes us by surprise that is just about it for this one.Still, roll on spring and summer. I'm done with this horrible and disappointing winter now.

A nice hot, thundery, and humid summer would make up for it. 

[Tony27]

dreadful winter, the mild/warm season ends in october so it is only about 4 months till people start looking for spring and warm weather again, now it is probably at least 10 months till we will realistically see snow, and it will be nearly 2 years for me without snow, unless we get something special in march but im not holding my breath, im sorry but i cannot get excited if we get some milder/drier weather to finish of winter we have the next 7 months for milder/drier weather, if we were to get a bartlett soon and it hung around for 2 months like this zonal pattern has it will still only be april, will people be bored of high pressure and want rain by may? people say there will be no drought this year but i bet if it was really dry in march, april, may and june, people will be concerned with lack of rainfall, things can change very quickly