Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[DTHFCJ]

looks like for some lucky people(who like the white stuff) it will be lampost watch duty tonight.....good luck to those starved of snow...

radars going to take a battering tonight for some. My other half thinks im nuts staring at a radar and when its summer and i say stare at that cloud in the sky and watch it disappear she really starts to panic..

Edited February 11, 2014 by DTHFCJ

[weather eater]

We have certainly seen some snow today, quite heavy for a while, even down to lower levels, I can't say I've really enjoyed it though, as all it has done is just added to the local swamp conditions, looks pretty on the hill tops I guess.

[Weather-history]

Does anyone know exactly what Piers Corbyn predicted this February?

[North-Easterly Blast]

I have to say that today has brought cold zonal polar maritime air to the UK, with an Atlantic influence, it has been quite cold today and snow has fallen across some parts of the country close to the north Midlands, Derbyshire Peak District and parts of Yorkshire.  I am only talking about snow settling on higher ground, but at least it has been an opportunity to break the duck and claim that snow has fallen out of the sky in a zonal Atlantic setup, and even settled on parts of higher ground.  It has actually been as good as anything that a number of places have seen this winter, just showing the dreadful winter we have had.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2014/brack/bracka20140211.gif

 

No blocking able to influence the UK, and very much an Atlantic driven setup, but snow has fallen across parts of the UK as far south as Derbyshire and parts of Wales, as polar maritime air has reached the UK.  Half way there from mild zonality / Atlantic driven weather that this winter has seen so far, to this, but still not there yet:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840116.gif

Zonal, no blocking, but snowfall more widespread than today.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840123.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840124.gif

 

Widespread snowfall in guess what, an Atlantic setup, blocking well too far north to influence the UK.  Today has come half way there, but will we EVER see the likes of this cold zonality again?  If most of the zonal weather this winter had been like today, it would have been a start, but if we have to have zonality, why can it not be of a cold polar maritime origin?  Where has cold zonality been all this winter? Why hasn't it happened? It has briefly put in an appearance of half way to the above today, and the rest of this week could see a fairly cold zonal polar maritime pattern, but still not able to develop into the cold zonal pattern in the above links.

Edited February 11, 2014 by North-Easterly Blast

[Peter H]

We have certainly seen some snow today, quite heavy for a while, even down to lower levels, I can't say I've really enjoyed it though, as all it has done is just added to the local swamp conditions, looks pretty on the hill tops I guess.

 

Yep, snow lying here at the moment, and we're more or less at sea level. Very cold and icy too.

We often get more snow in these parts on a west/north westerly set up than on an easterly.

Still, really only a skiff at this stage and we're back to rain tomorrow, though snow forecast for high ground. 

[Bluebreezer54]

For Gods sake !!

 

All the decent storms get modelled to run along the channel and then get shunted NORTH, so us here in the south just get a boring windy day with loads of bloody rain./

 

Then this weekend all we want is the low pressure system to do what it has done 7 million times already this year, and move North in the modeeling as the event draws near...BUT NO..

 

It moves South and we miss out yet again.

 

we can't get the cold, we can't even get a decent storm here.

 

what a onions winter

Have you spent the last 2 months living under a rock or some parallel universe ?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Feel GFS will be closer in FI, shows our traditional average setup, zonal westerlies, ECM another fantasy setup

[Winter2009]

Here we go again in the model thread, is this now our time ?

Or just another journey up the wet garden path ?!

[mushymanrob]

there are tangible signes that something cold could evolve into next week

 

the gfs has for some time now expected the controling upper trough to migrate eastwars allowing a ridge to link the azores high with the greenland high. support is now growing for this to evolve, and its becoming apparent in the opperationals. the anomaly charts although not in full agreement appear to suggest some kind of ridging.

 

imho its perfectly plausible that as the whole synoptic landscape appearsto drift eastward, that ridge could build especially to the north, and eventually introduce us into a protracted spell of raw easterlies.. after a long spell of wet, we often seem to flip to a long spell of dry/anticyclonic controlled weather. i think theres a pretty high chance that by the end of next week theres a huge high over scandinavia/western siberia (as this mornings ecm) and we will be in for a long spell od dry, raw (probably not snowy) spell.... like march 69.

[Buzz]

Does anyone know exactly what Piers Corbyn predicted this February?

 

No doubt some natural disaster that makes the tabloid headlines?

[Thundery wintry showers]

there are tangible signes that something cold could evolve into next week

 

the gfs has for some time now expected the controling upper trough to migrate eastwars allowing a ridge to link the azores high with the greenland high. support is now growing for this to evolve, and its becoming apparent in the opperationals. the anomaly charts although not in full agreement appear to suggest some kind of ridging.

 

imho its perfectly plausible that as the whole synoptic landscape appearsto drift eastward, that ridge could build especially to the north, and eventually introduce us into a protracted spell of raw easterlies.. after a long spell of wet, we often seem to flip to a long spell of dry/anticyclonic controlled weather. i think theres a pretty high chance that by the end of next week theres a huge high over scandinavia/western siberia (as this mornings ecm) and we will be in for a long spell od dry, raw (probably not snowy) spell.... like march 69.

Indeed, "easterly" Marches have a statistical tendency to be dry and cloudy- polar continental airmasses warm up and so we end up with convection over the North Sea hitting a cap- sunshine and snow showers setups from the east increasingly rely upon arctic continental air. I could see eastern areas getting sunshine and snow showers off that T+240 chart on the ECM but quite often those snowy north-easterlies get watered down into cloudy south-easterlies.  However I could foresee many in the south-west of Britain in particular welcoming the break from the repeated wind and rain belts.

Edited February 12, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[stevofunnelcl]

Just had a reporter on Sky News, from Newquay

 

She is standing out near the water's edge, getting wind blasted.

 

Then she starts to talk about Half-Term next week (like they expect hot, sunny weather, and it's not even mid-February yet)

Then she talks about attracting the 'wrong type' of visitors - eg - people that come to spectate the storm

 

Which is what she is doing. Unbelievable

[weather eater]

Love this tweet

Danny Savage North of England Correspondent, BBC News 

tweets: It is getting car door breakingly breezy. Turning vehicles into the wind before we get out. Otherwise hinges make horrible noise.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks like ECM has trended towards GFS, the 00Z was rather a weird run, washout half term week coming up

[Milhouse]

GEFS mean out to the end of Feb finishes winter off in typical fashion favouring an Atlantic dominated westerly regime. No sign of cold there.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GEFS mean out to the end of Feb finishes winter off in typical fashion favouring an Atlantic dominated westerly regime. No sign of cold there.

 

 

can imagine that coming off, but only for Feb, still have march for possible frost and snow

[Tony27]

To sum up this Winter and the Models

 

[Weather-history]

What we need, 13 years ago.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Monday is looking horrendous, washout for midlands and north west, GFS 00Z in FI gone wrong, fantasy run, like some ECM runs recently

[mountain shadow]

Well that's it folks, Winter is over for any widespread frost and snow.

A truelly awful Winter snow wise, meanwhile over in the NE states a familiar picture of snow and ice.

[Bristawl Si]

Well that's it folks, Winter is over for any widespread frost and snow.A truelly awful Winter snow wise, meanwhile over in the NE states a familiar picture of snow and ice.

Blimey, you're behind the curve - i've thought that for the last 3 weeks

[lindy2017]

Blimey, you're behind the curve - i've thought that for the last 3 weeks

Ive got snow ......coming down now and more to come....

[Bristawl Si]

Ive got snow ......coming down now and more to come....

Send it this way!

[Weather-history]

It is interesting reading Nick Sussex's analyses in the model thread but what is very interesting is that he lives in France but comments on the UK weather prosects as though he lives here but does anyone know what is going on in France this winter? Has it been wet where he is? Has he had any snow this winter? No disrespect to Nick Sussex but I find it odd that there is hardly if any observation s for his area or talks about weather prospects for his area. I wouldn't begrudge him some IMBYism analysis in the model threads.

[cheese]

It is interesting reading Nick Sussex's analyses in the model thread but what is very interesting is that he lives in France but comments on the UK weather prosects as though he lives here but does anyone know what is going on in France this winter? Has it been wet where he is? Has he had any snow this winter? No disrespect to Nick Sussex but I find it odd that there is hardly if any observation s for his area or talks about weather prospects for his area. I wouldn't begrudge him some IMBYism analysis in the model threads.

It has been exceptionally wet and dull in parts of France. Nice had 286.7mm and only 121.9 hours of sun in January, compared to an average of 69mm and 158 hours respectively.

 

Marseille had 102.8mm in January, compared to an average of 65.4mm.

 

Brest, Brittany had 224.2mm compared to an average of 138.4mm.

 

In Bordeaux, SWFrance, they had 175.02mm compared to an average of 87mm.

 

Lyon had 119.8mm compared to an average of 47.2mm.

 

It isn't just France either - Genoa in NW Italy had 297.17mm in January compared to an average of 101.8mm, while Milan had 221.7mm compared to  an average of 64.3mm.

 

Rest assured, it isn't just us suffering from excessive rainfall.

Edited February 13, 2014 by cheese