Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Tony27]

some were spoilt i wasn't only dec 2010 was special here, other winters i just had the odd 2-3 inch event, though at least we did actually have proper cold weather and i didn't need to open my windows so often in winter

Edited February 10, 2014 by Tony27

[mushymanrob]

differences between the summer months and september, you won't get sunburnt in september, you will tan better, the crops are harvesting and it is more pleasant to sit outside at midday? sounds good to me, unless you crave 30c and 20 hours of daylight of course

 

now can you tell me the advantages about the weather in march compared to the winter months from a coldies perspective? 

 

i suppose you can see snow fall properly if its falling at 5-6pm

 

low level sun, much shorter days, stinky rotting old vegetation in the air, musty mornings, damp, no birdsong especially swifts, flowers have all finished , yep i love 30c +, evenings outdoors, whi cares about trying to tan? i tan anyway. more pleasant to sit in shade midday, swimming, summer is a complete mix of everything mentioned not just temps. ... you can stick septmeber, i hate it, because everythings on the slide, i love spring.

 

why? i love spring, the early warmth, birdsong, growth, extending daylight, expectation, i cannot give a positive spin from a winter lovers pov, id have thought its not good as snow usually in march doesnt last long and its much less cold (then an equivelent spell in january).

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM gone silly, will be corrected in the morning to look like GFS

[Tony27]

we still get about 12-14hrs daylight in sep for crying out loud, yes some veg rot but some also harvest at that time of year, we regularly get high teens or low 20s in sep, you have it far better in sep than cold lovers have it in march, we see sunshine and pleasant days in march and sept which is nice enough, we don't see frost or snow in sep, the best we get is a chilly night in sep, how many times do i need to say this

 

lol you don't even like to sunbathe so you don't even miss out on that, you like the shade but you don't like the fact that sep is more pleasant to sit outside at midday as the sun is weaker, sounds very contradictory to me, people i know like September they never say it is a horrible month

 

lots of people look for nicer/warmer weather in march, people don't look for colder weather in september cos it is pointless and rarely happens 

Edited February 10, 2014 by Tony27

[Richard2901]

Yes this winter has been tedious and mind-numbingly boring beyond belief. There's no variety or unpredictability. Just the same old rot day in day out. Lots of cloud and wind; light rain falling almost every day. No big rain totals, no high rain rates. What is remotely interesting about that? Absolutely nothing. You can see light rain at any time of the year in this miserable country. Snow and hard frost, which you can only get for a short period, have been entirely absent and I'm in the snowiest city of the UK where we can expect close to 20 days of lying snow.

 

There is no real mild or cold. 75% of days this year have had maxima between 5.0C and 7.5C. A lack of temperature variation without precedent. Since 16th December the lowest max has been 3.1C and the highest 8.8C. I'm struggling to recall the last time two months passed without even reaching 9C. Didn't happen in 2009/10 and even the very mildest of winters have managed sub-3C maxima.

 

Minima have been ridiculously mild with shocking lack of frost and even sub-2C minima have been rare. What frosts there have been have been very short lived. I think there's only been about 3 days when it's still been below 0C at 9am.

 

An unspeakably poor season that has been as interesting as watching the test-card non-stop for several hours. Tenerife's winters are more interesting. Even there the temperatures, and weather conditions, are not so repetitive and unvaried and when I was there at the start of November I saw more snow, courtesy of a covering on the top of Mount Teide, than I've seen all autumn and winter here.

[winterof79]

Welcome to the world of rain the rest of Britain,its been happening in Yorkshire for years on and off.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=yorkshire+floods+2007&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=MUT5UvunF-KV7Aa__4DwCQ&ved=0CDQQsAQ

24,000 homes flooded in that one.Every time a low pressure system appears on the model out put its like the worlds ending.700 flooded so far up to this week in southern Britain.

Needed to get that off my chest.Model output thread is like the Southern disaster output.

 

 

Now thats a flood.....

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/02/15/article-2101531-11C0537A000005DC-997_634x378.jpg

Edited February 10, 2014 by winterof79

[Bola de Nieve]

Welcome to the world of rain the rest of Britain,its been happening in Yorkshire for years on and off.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=yorkshire+floods+2007&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=MUT5UvunF-KV7Aa__4DwCQ&ved=0CDQQsAQ

24,000 homes flooded in that one.Every time a low pressure system appears on the model out put its like the worlds ending.700 flooded so far up to this week in southern Britain.

Needed to get that off my chest.Model output thread is like the Southern disaster output.

 

 

Now thats a flood.....

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/02/15/article-2101531-11C0537A000005DC-997_634x378.jpg

You really are a nice individual with an obvious Northern chipped shoulder?

[winterof79]

You really are a nice individual with an obvious Northern chipped shoulder?

I have nothing against people in the South, East ,West wherever.Unless you have been blinkered viewing the media hysteria about anything that happens down south wether it be floods or not weather related for that matter.You obviously have an agenda against"Northern " people judging from your post.

Edited February 10, 2014 by winterof79

[Peejayem]

Welcome to the world of rain the rest of Britain,its been happening in Yorkshire for years on and off.https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=yorkshire+floods+2007&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=MUT5UvunF-KV7Aa__4DwCQ&ved=0CDQQsAQ24,000 homes flooded in that one.Every time a low pressure system appears on the model out put its like the worlds ending.700 flooded so far up to this week in southern Britain.Needed to get that off my chest.Model output thread is like the Southern disaster output.  Now thats a flood.....http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/02/15/article-2101531-11C0537A000005DC-997_634x378.jpg

Grow up

[Seasonal Trim]

Welcome to the world of rain the rest of Britain,its been happening in Yorkshire for years on and off.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=yorkshire+floods+2007&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=MUT5UvunF-KV7Aa__4DwCQ&ved=0CDQQsAQ

24,000 homes flooded in that one.Every time a low pressure system appears on the model out put its like the worlds ending.700 flooded so far up to this week in southern Britain.

Needed to get that off my chest.Model output thread is like the Southern disaster output.

 

 

Now thats a flood.....

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/02/15/article-2101531-11C0537A000005DC-997_634x378.jpg

One of the poorest posts I've read, and that's saying something for this thread!

[cheese]

Welcome to the world of rain the rest of Britain,its been happening in Yorkshire for years on and off.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=yorkshire+floods+2007&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=MUT5UvunF-KV7Aa__4DwCQ&ved=0CDQQsAQ

24,000 homes flooded in that one.Every time a low pressure system appears on the model out put its like the worlds ending.700 flooded so far up to this week in southern Britain.

Needed to get that off my chest.Model output thread is like the Southern disaster output.

 

 

Now thats a flood.....

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/02/15/article-2101531-11C0537A000005DC-997_634x378.jpg

The northern floods of 2007, 2009 and 2012 were all over the news and there was similar outcry at the government's delayed response.

 

I really have no idea why so many of my fellow northerners have such a giant chip on their shoulder. It's embarrassing.

[That ECM]

And this joke of a winter goes on and on. People say that this is a 1 in 250 year event, well let's hope so. I know some find this fascinating but not for me, depressing is more appropriate word in my book.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z ecm looked wrong as expected, trended towards the GFS

 

I would not be surprised if the GFS 00Z has this right all the way to 384

[snow freak]

I have a horrible feeling that we will end up getting the cold weather in March and April but rather than very cold weather it will be colder than averag (meaning around 6-7c) which is too warm for snow but means this lousy winter will be prolonged for another 2 months rather than an early spring.  I just want this winter over with now.  Really had enough of this cold (but not cold enough) damp windy extremely annoying weather now.

Yes this winter has been tedious and mind-numbingly boring beyond belief. There's no variety or unpredictability. Just the same old rot day in day out. Lots of cloud and wind; light rain falling almost every day. No big rain totals, no high rain rates. What is remotely interesting about that? Absolutely nothing. You can see light rain at any time of the year in this miserable country. Snow and hard frost, which you can only get for a short period, have been entirely absent and I'm in the snowiest city of the UK where we can expect close to 20 days of lying snow.

 

There is no real mild or cold. 75% of days this year have had maxima between 5.0C and 7.5C. A lack of temperature variation without precedent. Since 16th December the lowest max has been 3.1C and the highest 8.8C. I'm struggling to recall the last time two months passed without even reaching 9C. Didn't happen in 2009/10 and even the very mildest of winters have managed sub-3C maxima.

 

Minima have been ridiculously mild with shocking lack of frost and even sub-2C minima have been rare. What frosts there have been have been very short lived. I think there's only been about 3 days when it's still been below 0C at 9am.

 

An unspeakably poor season that has been as interesting as watching the test-card non-stop for several hours. Tenerife's winters are more interesting. Even there the temperatures, and weather conditions, are not so repetitive and unvaried and when I was there at the start of November I saw more snow, courtesy of a covering on the top of Mount Teide, than I've seen all autumn and winter here.

agree wholeheartedly.

[EML Network]

For Gods sake !!

 

All the decent storms get modelled to run along the channel and then get shunted NORTH, so us here in the south just get a boring windy day with loads of bloody rain./

 

Then this weekend all we want is the low pressure system to do what it has done 7 million times already this year, and move North in the modeeling as the event draws near...BUT NO..

 

It moves South and we miss out yet again.

 

we can't get the cold, we can't even get a decent storm here.

 

what a super duper winter

[mushymanrob]

we still get about 12-14hrs daylight in sep for crying out loud, yes some veg rot but some also harvest at that time of year, we regularly get high teens or low 20s in sep, you have it far better in sep than cold lovers have it in march, we see sunshine and pleasant days in march and sept which is nice enough, we don't see frost or snow in sep, the best we get is a chilly night in sep, how many times do i need to say this

 

lol you don't even like to sunbathe so you don't even miss out on that, you like the shade but you don't like the fact that sep is more pleasant to sit outside at midday as the sun is weaker, sounds very contradictory to me, people i know like September they never say it is a horrible month

 

lots of people look for nicer/warmer weather in march, people don't look for colder weather in september cos it is pointless and rarely happens 

 

two seperate issues here...

 

1 september isnt 'summer' for reasons listed previously. is it pleasant?...yes.

2 i agree that summer lovers usually have a better deal in sept then winter lovers do in march.

 

i dont have to sunbathe, i work outside, i get tanned as soon as i strip off which is usually over about 17c in sun. 

 

of course i sit out in the sun, anytime from march - october, but IF it gets too strong in the hight of summer, i can move to the shade and enjoy the warm air without getting sunstroke... common flippin sense... and its no more contradictory then cold lovers wrapping up to keep warm when they go outside... again, common flippin sense.

 

i said that I hate september, not that everybody does, i know full well that many enjoy the more temperate temps and autumn colours...

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Do you not think that basing climate change over an eight year period is way too short a time?

 

Some will even say that ONE very wet and windy winter is a result of climate change(all evidence pointing that way?)

 

I just looked through some CET figures and its interesting to see that the average annual value from 1997 to 2007 was 10.45 and the average annual  value from 2007 to 2013 has decreased to 9.90.

 

Climate change or natural variation?............ only time can answer that question ...........................................

 

David

 

I am basing my readings on the last 350 years.

Notice on this FEB CET page how to averages rise little by little every century and then start rising much more dramatically over the last 50 years.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79154-february-2014-cet-forecasts/

 

You can look at the other CET months for the same pattern.

 

I think the only one with any deviation is Dec CET because December 2010 was so cold.

 

January CET:  shows a similar warming.  http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78813-january-2014-cet-forecasts/

 

I'll let you look at the other months' pages if you wish.

 

There has been just too much extreme weather for over the last 8 years to pass it off as natural.  Extremes of all kinds, heat, rain, cold, wind.

 

 2007 was thought to be 'probably wettest UK summer'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6971370.stm

 

Then in 2012 then we get the "wettest for 100 years" according to the Met Office.  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/second-wettest-summer

 

Now in 2014 we have the wettest winter in 250 years.

 

Admittedly my GCSE maths is a bit rusty, but from what I remember on the laws of probability, these 3 events happening so close to one another is a cause for concern for myself personally.

 

I understand not everyone shares my opinions though and I welcome debate on it and love the advanced forecasting techniques discussed on here.  I accept some natural variation in solar cycles etc, but from my opinion man is having a much bigger impact on the weather we get now than we can imagine.

Edited February 11, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Rose]

Interminable rain now turned to snow, I know, it won't last long or probably won't settle however it's lifted my VERY  low spirits just to see it out of the window on another dull day.....................

[snow freak]

Nostradamus predicted that many parts of Britain would become submerged under water (permenantly) 400 years ago.  He might have been on to something looking at what's happening at the moment.

[snow freak]

can my luck get even worse.  Finally getting some snow in Northampton today.... and im in London.  Great!!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

differences between the summer months and september, you won't get sunburnt in september, you will tan better, the crops are harvesting and it is more pleasant to sit outside at midday? sounds good to me, unless you crave 30c and 20 hours of daylight of course

 

now can you tell me the advantages about the weather in march compared to the winter months from a coldies perspective? 

 

i suppose you can see snow fall properly if its falling at 5-6pm

I can think of one for the "convection lovers"- homegrown convection becomes more likely from polar maritime and arctic maritime blasts as the sunshine gets stronger.  The northerlies during Easter 2008 saw widespread snow showers develop inland as a result of homegrown convection, whereas had it been January, chances are that showers would often have been restricted mainly to north-facing coasts.  Some of the resulting skyscapes were quite spectacular with sharp changes of visibility under the snow/hail showers in many areas.

 

I often feel, wouldn't it be great if we could get homegrown convection during potent winter cold spells, so that we didn't end up with homegrown snow showers almost invariably associated with rapid thaws in the sun, but in reality we are usually restricted to relying on snow showers spreading inland from the North Sea or Irish Sea.

Edited February 11, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[MP-R]

On a completely different note, anyone else find it incredible that it doesn't seem to matter where each low is coming from, it always ends up over the UK. We've had lows coming from the northwest, west, southwest and now one on Friday almost coming straight up from the south - they always get to the UK! Never over the continent or stall before getting here. It's as if we are a rain magnet.

[snow freak]

I can think of one for the "convection lovers"- homegrown convection becomes more likely from polar maritime and arctic maritime blasts as the sunshine gets stronger.  The northerlies during Easter 2008 saw widespread snow showers develop inland as a result of homegrown convection, whereas had it been January, chances are that showers would often have been restricted mainly to north-facing coasts.  Some of the resulting skyscapes were quite spectacular with sharp changes of visibility under the snow/hail showers in many areas.

 

I often feel, wouldn't it be great if we could get homegrown convection during potent winter cold spells, so that we didn't end up with homegrown snow showers almost invariably associated with rapid thaws in the sun, but in reality we are usually restricted to relying on snow showers spreading inland from the North Sea or Irish Sea.

it is also usually the case that when we do get heavy snow, it falls and then the next few days are brilliant sunshine but cold.  We very rarely get a big snowfall, then a day or two of sunshine and cold and then follow that with another snowfall.  Would just love to once witness a long period of snow. cold, sunshine and more snow like they do on the continent, but for the UK that is a once in a lifetime event for most of us.  I have yet to see one and i am 49 years of age.

[winterof79]

Grow up

Ok whatever.......

[winterof79]

The northern floods of 2007, 2009 and 2012 were all over the news and there was similar outcry at the government's delayed response.

 

I really have no idea why so many of my fellow northerners have such a giant chip on their shoulder. It's embarrassing.

Press ignore then pal