Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

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Once again the models are producing some pretty nasty lows this week with the Southern half of the UK looking to take the brunt AGAIN! 

 

One to watch is Wednesday into Thursday before another quickly follows Friday into Saturday.. Of course the end of the week is a long way out but the models this winter have been very good at picking these lows out and getting them nailed on pretty far out..

 

Looking into FI I personally see no change we see High pressure trying to ridge in over the UK but gets slammed out the way by LP

[snow freak]

I've quite enjoyed this winterNurse !!!

 

I find it very odd that weather enthusiasts could be bored this winter. This winter has been far from boring; how could living through the wettest winter period for 250 years be described as boring.

Boring, boring, boring.  Everyone keeps saying the UK weather is so interesting as you never know what you're going to get.  Well thats certainly true if its wind, rain and mildness you want.  Give me more reliable (yes, and if that's boring then i would rather it anyday) seasons where you have cold and snow in the winter and sun and heat in the summer.  Sod this half hearted weather we get in the UK.

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Boring, boring, boring.  Everyone keeps saying the UK weather is so interesting as you never know what you're going to get.  Well thats certainly true if its wind, rain and mildness you want.  Give me more reliable (yes, and if that's boring then i would rather it anyday) seasons where you have cold and snow in the winter and sun and heat in the summer.  Sod this half hearted weather we get in the UK.

 

Totally disagree, some of these lows that we have had are giving us more understanding of how lows develop, not only that, we are learning from the patterns across the globe that give us this weather.

 

Plus, this week we have more "interesting" weather coming where we have lows @ plus 990mb that get down to sub 960 in under 24 hours!

[johnholmes]

Boring, boring, boring.  Everyone keeps saying the UK weather is so interesting as you never know what you're going to get.  Well thats certainly true if its wind, rain and mildness you want.  Give me more reliable (yes, and if that's boring then i would rather it anyday) seasons where you have cold and snow in the winter and sun and heat in the summer.  Sod this half hearted weather we get in the UK.

 

I am not sure what you expect living on an island at the eastern end of a very large ocean?

Why not compare your hopes re seasons with what the overall statistics both for the whole UK and your area actually show you. Lower your hopes and become more realistic in those hopes might be a good idea?

[cheese]

I am not sure what you expect living on an island at the eastern end of a very large ocean?

Not endless rain, is what I expect. A bit of snow wouldn't go amiss. A typical winter usually has some snow, however insignificant and transient, but not this one. Just rain and cloud. Not much variety. We haven't even had any abnormally mild days - just consistently between 6 and 9C. People have every right to moan (see thread title) - this is pretty abysmal even by our usually low standards.

Edited February 10, 2014 by cheese

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Not endless rain, is what I expect. A bit of snow wouldn't go amiss. A typical winter usually has some snow, however insignificant and transient, but not this one. Just rain and cloud. Not much variety. We haven't even had any abnormally mild days - just consistently between 6 and 9C. People have every right to moan (see thread title) - this is pretty abysmal even by our usually low standards.

 

But you're saying it or sounds like it has been a boring winter. Records have been broken? We have seen some of the deepest lows in years.. And the bad side to it all is flooding and damage which I feel for people that have suffered.

 

But boring.. No.. If we don't get any snow we don't. We can't help that we are locked into this pattern and have been over the whole of winter...

[cheese]

But you're saying it or sounds like it has been a boring winter. Records have been broken? We have seen some of the deepest lows in years.. And the bad side to it all is flooding and damage which I feel for people that have suffered.

 

But boring.. No.. If we don't get any snow we don't. We can't help that we are locked into this pattern and have been over the whole of winter...

As I said, it is statistically interesting, but that's about it. No records broken up here either, as I mentioned earlier, so no interest whatsoever. Just tedious. Mostly light rain falling frequently, as opposed to torrential rain, which would be interesting. No thunderstorms either, like some places.

Edited February 10, 2014 by cheese

[mushymanrob]

I'll believe it when I see it. No disrespect to you but I don't believe these "signs" of cold one bit now. Everytime a model has suggested it, it changes by the next update just be a continuation of this crappy mild, wet and windy weather.

 

... and tentetive signes this morning have decreased... indeed you are right to be scepticle.

 

Good, i hope we get a wintry spell in March many a time we have seen Summer like weather in September, in fact September is still practically summer down here anyway, only difference is it gets dark at about 8pm instead of 10pm, and i have used my BBQ in September more times than i have used my sledge in March

 

as for the hints of Blocking in deep FI like shown on today's 12z it's way too far out to take seriously for me so i won't be getting sucked in like some other people unless it is shown at T168 or less

 

one of my pet hates.... regarding temperature as 'summer'... temps are only part of the summer, 'the only difference is the times it gets dark'?... man you have a very  narrow view of what summer is...

[Wynn D Woo]

But you're saying it or sounds like it has been a boring winter. Records have been broken? We have seen some of the deepest lows in years.. And the bad side to it all is flooding and damage which I feel for people that have suffered.

 

But boring.. No.. If we don't get any snow we don't. We can't help that we are locked into this pattern and have been over the whole of winter...

 

Im with Cheese on this one, it has been a boring, tedius 'winter' - in fact we havent actually had winter just one very long late Autumn.

 

It looks very likely we will continue to spring with this dross, 2013/14 the 'year' without a winter?

[MP-R]

I think the fact is, we're seeing records broken in weather that we normally get anyway. I think people would be more interested in record-breaking cold, mild, snow, ice days etc. As we get wind and rain at any time of the year it's hardly interesting.

 

I found this pattern interesting and actually rather fun in November and December - I like zonal weather when it's due with the high winds, active fronts and squalls and thundery showers it produces. However, January and more so February are not supposed to be Atlantic-dominated (or certainly not in my lifetime anyway). Personally, I prefer seasonal weather which may be boring in the sense that there is some reliability in the right conditions arriving at the right time but those conditions in themselves can be interesting. I'd give anything for frost and fog right now!

[DAVID SNOW]

Disagreeing over the causes is like "fiddling as Rome burns". The cold hard facts are this.. April 2007 warmest on record,Dec 2010 coldest for 100+ years, April 2011 warmer still, Summer 2012 wettest for 100 years, Spring 2013 coldest for 50 years, winter 2013/2014 wettest on record.The avg CET is rising constantly for most of our calendar months (see opening post of each CET competition thread)This series of events disturbs me. I'd love to be convinced climate change has nothing to do with it but I don't share the faith.

Do you not think that basing climate change over an eight year period is way too short a time?

 

Some will even say that ONE very wet and windy winter is a result of climate change(all evidence pointing that way?)

 

I just looked through some CET figures and its interesting to see that the average annual value from 1997 to 2007 was 10.45 and the average annual  value from 2007 to 2013 has decreased to 9.90.

 

Climate change or natural variation?............ only time can answer that question ...........................................

[Barking_Mad]

From a personal point of view i hate the rain but from true weather point of view it's anything but boring. Highly unusual amounts of rain, astonishing series of low pressures. If you're interested in the weather im not sure how you can think it's boring, even if like me you like a good dollop of snow!

[cheese]

From a personal point of view i hate the rain but from true weather point of view it's anything but boring. Highly unusual amounts of rain, astonishing series of low pressures. If you're interested in the weather im not sure how you can think it's boring, even if like me you like a good dollop of snow!

As I keep on mentioning, but apparently in vain, it hasn't been astonishing or unusual in this part of the world. It's been interesting to see events unfolding in southern England, and the consistency of low pressure systems is remarkable, but where I am, on the ground, there is no interest to be derived whatsoever I'm afraid. Absolutely zilch. I can't think of one single interesting weather event since the New Year. Interesting synoptics, sure, but that is it.

 

With that said, I think I'm just a bit sick of persistent light-mod rain, and I'd take sunny, dry weather over this, even if it's boring too. I just want dry, cheerful weather, not dreary, damp weather. February 2008 or February 1998 would be great - mild, dry and sunny!

Edited February 10, 2014 by cheese

[mushymanrob]

'the year without a winter'?... lol... some posts are way ott.

 

it doesnt or wouldnt surprise me if this winter passed without a snow/cold spell, we are long overdue for one . the only thing thats abit abnormal is the amount of wind and rain some areas have had (this so far has been a poor year for flooding locally, if flooding is to be liked that is), and thats due to the exact positioning of the controling low/jet stream . its been stuck in an unfavourable position for slightly longer then usual, its been tracking deep lows along the same track, a few hundered miles further south then usual, ...thats all! small but significant changes which has given the impression that its really bad.

 

nah.... in the same way that we had to have a nice summer sooner or later, and after 7 years last year delivered, we also are likely to have a winter without a cold/snowy spell. they arent rare, its not a sign of anything, its just normal.

[Paul_1978]

I thought this was the model output discussion thread?

[ribster]

No, its moans, rants and banter...

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Think of it like this then snow lovers..

 

IF we were in the cold winter we like, with the amount of rain that has fallen the sheer vloume of snow would cause problems for you..

 

No work = no money

No heating power due to cold and snow

 

Economic crisis possible? Remeber the UK can't handle 2cm of snow! If we added up the amount of rain we have had over the past few weeks we would be well over a meter of snow.. Yes highly highly unlikely but you have to weigh out the problems..

 

Just like the rain and wind has caused serious damage to our coast lines and in land..

 

But what would have a deeper impact? We should have a vote..

 

Rain and wind

 

or snow and cold

 

BTW I am not a milder ramper if anyone asks I love snow.. IF it falls when Im not at work 

[snow freak]

Think of it like this then snow lovers..

 

IF we were in the cold winter we like, with the amount of rain that has fallen the sheer vloume of snow would cause problems for you..

 

No work = no money

No heating power due to cold and snow

 

Economic crisis possible? Remeber the UK can't handle 2cm of snow! If we added up the amount of rain we have had over the past few weeks we would be well over a meter of snow.. Yes highly highly unlikely but you have to weigh out the problems..

 

Just like the rain and wind has caused serious damage to our coast lines and in land..

 

But what would have a deeper impact? We should have a vote..

 

Rain and wind

 

or snow and cold

 

BTW I am not a milder ramper if anyone asks I love snow.. IF it falls when Im not at work 

gimme snow....i want snow!!

[TwisterGirl81]

Well to be honest with you I LOVE snow but living in the south west it usually is rain (unless you live on the moors) then turns to snow as it travels thorugh the county so we rarely win in that situation.

 

I'll take this intersting windy weather over freezing cold and rain with no snow to show for it

 

Yes I know there's flooding  issues and  coastel damage but that's what happens in severe weather when you live in those 'prone' area's however sad it is.

[Snow Grain]

Think of it like this then snow lovers..

 

IF we were in the cold winter we like, with the amount of rain that has fallen the sheer vloume of snow would cause problems for you..

 

No work = no money

No heating power due to cold and snow

 

Economic crisis possible? Remeber the UK can't handle 2cm of snow! If we added up the amount of rain we have had over the past few weeks we would be well over a meter of snow.. Yes highly highly unlikely but you have to weigh out the problems..

 

Just like the rain and wind has caused serious damage to our coast lines and in land..

 

But what would have a deeper impact? We should have a vote..

 

Rain and wind

 

or snow and cold

 

BTW I am not a milder ramper if anyone asks I love snow.. IF it falls when Im not at work 

Must agree with the boring brigade, let's be fair most people on here look for snow in winter and fine warm weather in the summer. It's been very boring this winter with constant rain and wind which isn't a novelty!

I couldn't imagine a forum called rain watch being as popular as snow watch unless you lived somewhere like the Sudan. I don't think several country wide snowfalls would impact financially on the UK as much as the current flooding which is going to cost over a billion pounds.

[MP-R]

The difference being that in a winter cold spell, a lot less snow would fall than we have had rain so far this winter. 

[snow freak]

also in countries that tend to have snowy winters, the snow melt is less rapid and therefore less flooding issues when the spring does come.  That would be my ideal winter scenario.  Constant rainfall has much more of an impact, both psychologically and financially, especially in those areas affected by flooding.

[stevofunnelcl]

Not sure whether i'm joking or being half serious, so i decided to put this here:

 

If we're going to keep Winter's like this, or Summer's like 2012

 

What about a Uk version of.... The Weather Channel

 

Not the version that exists today, but the 'old' Weather Channel

 

Plenty of weather news going on at the moment to fill a 24 hour station.

During quiet times, they could still focus on historical weather events

 

Everywhere i go, everyone wants to talk about the weather anyway.. this is the Uk afterall

Those were my ponderings whilst having a bath

[Tony27]

... and tentetive signes this morning have decreased... indeed you are right to be scepticle.

 

 

one of my pet hates.... regarding temperature as 'summer'... temps are only part of the summer, 'the only difference is the times it gets dark'?... man you have a very  narrow view of what summer is...

differences between the summer months and september, you won't get sunburnt in september, you will tan better, the crops are harvesting and it is more pleasant to sit outside at midday? sounds good to me, unless you crave 30c and 20 hours of daylight of course

 

now can you tell me the advantages about the weather in march compared to the winter months from a coldies perspective? 

 

i suppose you can see snow fall properly if its falling at 5-6pm

Edited February 10, 2014 by Tony27

[SnowObsessor90]

This Winter really has gone out of it's way to remind us how difficult it can be for the UK to get Cold, we were well and truly spoilt over the last 4/5 years.