Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Bristawl Si]

all those wanting a bartlett instead of zonal i just have to say be careful what you wish for it, personally i don't fancy 15c 16c in feb, we have the next 8 months for mild/warm weather, ideally i want a cold high which develops into something more favorable down the line, i can understand those who are affected by floods wanting a Bartlett though

I'd love a bartlett or similar. Unless we get a nice week or two of cold and snow i'd rather it warm up properly and dry up, early. Certainly dont want a cold March and/or April.

[mushymanrob]

I think winter will come in march, it's not even february yet but it's already been written off as a damp squib so roll on march

 

indeed karl, after a lengthy spell of unsettled, we often get an lengthy anticyclonic spell, and anticyclonic in march/april is usually cold. overnight frosts  but sunny days. reckon march could well turn out to be the frostiest month of the winter, even though march is spring, ironically.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Bring on the Bartlett....Jeez am I really saying that? Must be....2 months of sludge crap weather is enough to drive anyone mad.

[Chris K]

To be honest I just want things to dry up now. Everything is so damp all the time making the milder temperatures not feel any better. Messy winter.

[CLH the red dragon]

all those wanting a bartlett instead of zonal i just have to say be careful what you wish for, personally i don't fancy 15c 16c in feb, we have the next 8 months for mild/warm weather, ideally i want a cold high which develops into something more favorable down the line, i can understand those who are affected by floods wanting a Bartlett though 

 Personally, I fancy the poor people of Somerset being able to leave their homes.

[cyclonic happiness]

Yes this winter so far has been a miserable state of affairs in the main. I wasn't expecting so much rain and stormy weather, indeed some forecasts were calling for a dry winter...

 

Today has redeemed it ever so slightly with our first snowfall of the season..

 

A dry spring is what we need now..and hopefully a cold northerly before the end of the winter - a 1995 end would be excellent.

 

Perhaps we will be rewarded with a lovely summer this year.

Before this winter I remember remarking on the fact that, in the Midlands at least, we'd not had any gales/storms for almost 8 years, this is just redressing the balance, still a few weeks left to complete the process.

[mountain shadow]

Recretos just written off any chances of the strat helping us now, indeed the strat warming is actually going to aid the PV over NE Canada!!

Record wet Winter?

[draztik]

I would put a cold Scandinavian high first as I just want to see something more wintry but if that doesn't workout, then I would be fine with a Bartlett High, just anything but the Atlantic storming in every five minutes - it's really driving me up the wall! I just think that the people who want all of this mild, wet and windy weather to continue despite all of the flooding are completely off their nut! I am only 16 but I will remember this winter for the rest of my life for all of the wrong reasons.

 

It is merely their preference. Storms, interest some people - just as snow and deep cold interest others. But, you forget, snow and ice bring misery too. I remember after the exceptional winter of 2010; pipes in homes froze, then burst, flooding their homes. I remember scenes in my native Northern Ireland - people queuing for drinking water, as they had no running water for up to 10 days in some cases. The March 2013 snowpocalypse, killed thousands of animals, impacted business & industry. Snow can be fun, but also miserable. Winter weather, whether it be rain or snow & cold can bring misery in equal measure. It's fine for a few days, then it wears thin! This forum is a niche portal, the vast majority do not want to see incessant cold, neither do they care for constant winds & rain.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It is merely their preference. Storms, interest some people - just as snow and deep cold interest others. But, you forget, snow and ice bring misery too. I remember after the exceptional winter of 2010; pipes in homes froze, then burst, flooding their homes. I remember scenes in my native Northern Ireland - people queuing for drinking water, as they had no running water for up to 10 days in some cases. The March 2013 snowpocalypse, killed thousands of animals, impacted business & industry. Snow can be fun, but also miserable. Winter weather, whether it be rain or snow & cold can bring misery in equal measure. It's fine for a few days, then it wears thin! This forum is a niche portal, the vast majority do not want to see incessant cold, neither do they care for constant winds & rain.

 

Can think of a few that do, Bobby, Gibby, Gaz1985, Richie V, even Gavin D says he has had enough and wants it drier!

 

normal UK winter season really, prevailing SW/W winds, hopefully a lessening of the Atlantic towards late Feb

[Tony27]

personally i wouldn't mind if it stays cool/average and wet, most of the time im indoors and i work inside, i don't do much walking as i drive everywhere so i don't get soaked yeah i know im lazy, i would only want it to be dry if i am walking a fair distance, i would like it dry if it's cold, foggy and frosty, i just don't want it mild, bright and dry esp not in feb, if that makes me selfish then everyone who wants snow is as well cos snow cause chaos, but the sad fact is we can't even get faux cold let alone snow 

 

people might be fed up of this autumnal weather but its only been like this for 3 months as october was warm, we have the next 8-9 months for mild/warm weather, if its still wet in march then i will want dry, warm weather

Edited January 31, 2014 by Tony27

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the evening report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday January 31st 2014.

 

All models continue to show very unsettled and potentially stormy weather over the next 4 or 5 days. Through this period there are three distinct periods of concern shown by all output. Tomorrow will see the UK battered by gales and squally showers followed by something of a respite on Sunday. On Monday the second attack comes up from the SW with further very heavy rain and strong winds. A return to showers on Tuesday is followed by a worryingly bad spell of weather with severe gale force winds and flooding rain on Wednesday with near average temperatures throughout.

 

GFS then shows the rest of the run similar to that of this morning's with very changeable weather alternating between windy and wet weather with brighter and more showery conditions at times. A drier and brighter interlude under a rare anticyclonic interlude is shown later when it may be accompanied by a rise of temperatures in the SE with the more pronounced rainfall transferring to the NW. However, this period looks far from a pattern changer and it isn't long before such improvements are eroded away by more Atlantic Low pressure at the end of the run.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a marked warming to rather mild levels by the second half of the run with the weather remaining wet and often very windy as Atlantic Low pressure areas and fronts continue to bring rain in milder SW winds.

 

UKMO closes tonight showing next Thursday with a deep depression over Ireland on Wednesday clearing slowly North on Thursday with a small secondary feature close to Southern Britain threatening more wind and rain for the South while the North sees strong Westerly winds and showers.

 

GEM tonight also shows very unsettled and wet weather next week with spells of rain and showers on all days next week before things become rather milder, especially in the South and East later as the most rain transfers more towards the North and West.

 

NAVGEM is still showing very unstable SW winds next week with fronts moving East and NE regularly bringing rain and showers for all at times in more average temperatures.

 

ECM tonight is purely awful once more, as bad if not worse than this morning with repetitive spells of rain and showers in very strong winds at times and temperatures around average. there remains little sign of a pattern break even at day 10.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue to show strong support for Low pressure biased to be to the North of Scotland in 9 or 10 days time with the seemingly ever present SW flow across the UK with rain bearing fronts still in attendance.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream Forecast remains testament to why our weather remains poor tonight. the flow is shown to blow west to East just to the South of the UK with occasional surges of increased strength powering up large depressions and escalating weather conditions to disruptive levels at times. The flow does inch a little further North to lie over the UK late in the run.

 

In Summary tonight the Atlantic bandwagon motors on with little sign of any significant improvement shown again tonight. There will be frequent periods of rain and strong winds giving rise to disruption at times with temperatures very gradually rising to average then above average conditions at times later. I doubt if anyone will notice such a temperature rise as for the most part it will be accompanied by a strong SW breeze and further rainfall.

[ryan93]

Something keeps telling me in my head that we have to wait till late feb for a nice decent cold spell, these models are guna change rapidly in the next couple of weeks we'll that's what my heads telling me hahah I don't have a huge amount of experience but that's my honest opinion hate it or love it.. But whatever the matter my thoughts are out to the people who are constantly having to put up with these floods.

Edited January 31, 2014 by ryan93

[Iceaxecrampon]

..........yes its all looking a bit zonal - altitude or forget it.

 

146 users and that's your lot.

 

Grim

 

Ian  

[Tim M]

Beginning to wonder if we will ever dry out. One dry day in January here, one in December, four in November and six in October.

Oh, and despite forecasts saying dry evening/overnight it is now raining again after eight hours of torrential rain and looks set for a few hours!

Edited January 31, 2014 by Tim M

[mushymanrob]

well this week looks to be another very wet one with a succession of atlantic depressions heading our way. looking like itll get worse before it gets better..

[Gord]

Think today must be one of the quietest Saturdays on this forum since last September. Says it all really. Seems like the only people left are the people with the scientific knowledge to study the patterns in detail and the people who love mild and wet weather (and one or two stragglers like me who can't help but look in for the faintest glimmer of hope for something better).

 

Such a shame because usually at this time of year, our interest/hobby/study (whatever it is to you) of the weather has a high profile allowing us to discuss and share with a community that goes far wider than this forum. My friends know I have an interest in the weather and I haven't been asked about it in several weeks now.

Edited February 1, 2014 by Gord

[Milhouse]

Pretty miserable set of models at the moment. Any sort of high pressure would be good at the moment to provide a much needed break to monotonous rain and strong winds. But i would say better to get this disturbed pattern now than in 3/4 months time whan the outdoors season should be in full swing.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Fax charts on meteociel (ukmo) to pot! not been updated for ages, view them on here though so not too bad, hopefully dry next 3 days here, or is it too big ask to hope Monday's rain arrives at night

[Weather-history]

Maybe Jo Brand can judge the models, after all what they are all showing is Splash!

[cobbett]

Pretty exciting period of weather coming up for next week yet again.

This is turning out to be quite a memorable winter albeit not for the usual (snow) reasons

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Pretty exciting period of weather coming up for next week yet again.This is turning out to be quite a memorable winter albeit not for the usual (snow) reasons

 

would rather have a Feb '98, although Feb like '98 was a one off,

[Weather-history]

Maybe Jo Brand can judge the models, after all what they are all showing is Splash!

This sums up this winter if it could be transformed into a dive

[MPG]

Left it a whole week on here to come back to even worse modelling. More rain, more flooding....a winter to forget. Looking for early spring now.

[Tony27]

cos sadly that is the average temp in this country in winter, lets be thankful it isn't 7c above average even though we want it to be about 7c below average

[Eskimo]

Why is 6.5C and heavy driving rain synonymous with this Winter? Lost count now since Nov seeing the car thermo show exactly that temp....

Thermometer might be broken?