Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Bobby]

I think you were right the other day Nick, wouldnt be suprised if the ruskies have been firing up something into the atmosphere to ensure they have a big high pressure ready for the Olympics. At the same time the Yanks have been firing something up to set the Atlantic on fire to try and blast that HP to bits. Could happen

 

A cold war then?

 

I'll get my coat.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

sorry but i dont recall last summer being particularly great.  No very high temperatures or long dry periods.  Okay not a washout summer but also not a particularly memorable one either.  Actually pretty normal and unremarkable in my opinion.

We achieved 34c and 32-33c on a few occasions too. Not too shabby IMO, and a very welcome proper summer compared to the dismal 7 years before it. It may have seemed better, just because we were that used to a string of pants summers.

[drgl]

I knew i was tempting fate when i paid for my car to have a winter check back in the Autumn.  I should have known then that we would have a mild and snowless winter after having that done.  Just thankful i didnt go the whole hog and buy snow chains for the car which i was sorely tempted to do.  Would have been such a waste of money.  Would rather now just take my chances in any paltry snow and ice we might get.

My wife's car has had a broken heated windscreen for years, the gas struts in the boot were also lazy & would't stay up in cold weather. I replaced both this winter to avoid any more moans! Typical.

Edited January 30, 2014 by drgl

[drgl]

sorry but i dont recall last summer being particularly great.  No very high temperatures or long dry periods.  Okay not a washout summer but also not a particularly memorable one either.  Actually pretty normal and unremarkable in my opinion.

Eh? Grass was deader than dead looking here. We moved July 5th & the removals men were sweating somewhat!!

[Rob125]

sorry but i dont recall last summer being particularly great.  No very high temperatures or long dry periods.  Okay not a washout summer but also not a particularly memorable one either.  Actually pretty normal and unremarkable in my opinion.

Guess there will always be an IMBY perspective to this but the period 5 -26 July last year met all my requirements for a great summer - OK only 3 weeks but if we had an equivalent 3 week spell of "winter" (snow, ice days etc) then most cold seekers would be happier than they are at present. During that spell in July we were able to eat our evening meal outside with only problem being wasps. There aren't many UK summers that allow that. Ultimately I have to consider 26 December 1962 onwards as the worst winter in memory for longevity and summer 1976 is going to be very difficult to beat for heat and lack of rain. Clearly those of a later generation have different views.

[mushymanrob]

Cold Winters I would say: 63 (do not recall!), 79, 82, 87, 91, 96, 2010, Dec 2010

So all in all slightly more good Summers I would say in a rudimentary fashion!

 

feb 85 and feb 86 were very cold too, especially 86.. here they were worse then 87, which was intense but shorter.

Eh? Grass was deader than dead looking here. We moved July 5th & the removals men were sweating somewhat!!

 

i lost no work through drought last summer ( i cut grass for a living) the last time i lost work was 03.

 

in fact ive lost far more due to cold then drought .... last march-april esp.

[Due South]

Get the first week of Feb out the way, then Dry and Warm for Southern England. Relief for the flooded communities. ( Corbyn )

[Lincs Observation]

Evening all

 

Thought this link may massage the dented optimism of many cold lovers, however like Paul Hudson says always take things with a pinch of salt.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Beware-February-with-a-sting-in-its-tail

 

LO

Edited January 30, 2014 by Lincs Observation

[Seasonal Trim]

I'm at the point now where I've had enough of the search for cold and am now looking forward to some dryer and brighter days that I hope lay ahead. I would like to thank the likes of Steve Murr, nicksussex amongst others for their valuable and insightful knowledge during the Autumn and Winter months and hope to see it all again for the next bout of Winter cold hunting come November. Now I'm looking forward to the likes of Summer Sun, Mushymanrob (without the coldie caravaniness!:-p ) & the sun loving Frosty with all the other warminestas looking for that all too elusive high pressure from the south.

[skadi]

 

Summer however, Im not just being optimistic for the sake of it, but there has been a clear correlation of good summer happening back to back with eachother. 

Models still say that there is no cold in sight, and as much as I hate the Uncle Barty theme, it looks to be possibly trending towards that as we go into Feb!

It has probably been stated here before, but 1962 was a "summerless" year. And we all know what followed...

Umm..uncle Barty...? No thanks!

Edited January 30, 2014 by skadi

[Gord]

Very poor outlook indeed. Gibby needn't bother with his brilliant model summaries tonight...we all get the picture. Save yourselfr some time Gibby...have the night off, pour yourself a glass of something nice instead! You've certainly earnt it after having to summarise appalling model run after model run this winter!

Edited January 30, 2014 by Gord

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

It has probably been stated here before, but 1962 was a "summerless" year. And we all know what followed...

Umm..uncle Barty...? No thanks!

Think its a 'take your pick' case for good summer or a good winter. Getting both seems to be a very slim chance.

[Froze were the Days]

My God I'm finding this weather depressing! - no wonder Kurt Cobain shot himself, it wasn't the drugs, fame or coffee but the incessant rain.

 

I've been collating winter records since 1983 but nothing compares to the utter woefulness of this one.

[Summer Sun]

I'm at the point now where I've had enough of the search for cold and am now looking forward to some dryer and brighter days that I hope lay ahead. I would like to thank the likes of Steve Murr, nicksussex amongst others for their valuable and insightful knowledge during the Autumn and Winter months and hope to see it all again for the next bout of Winter cold hunting come November. Now I'm looking forward to the likes of Summer Sun, Mushymanrob (without the coldie caravaniness!:-p ) & the sun loving Frosty with all the other warminestas looking for that all too elusive high pressure from the south.

 

I'm ready and waiting along with my fellow warm weather fans hopefully we'll see some decent spells of high pressure developing shortly and the long process of drying out can commence with the ever strengthening sunshine and longer days

[Frosty.]

I think winter will come in march, it's not even february yet but it's already been written off as a damp squib so roll on march

[JOPRO]

Dear jet-stream..

xxx

http://bearalley.blogspot.co.uk/2010/09/no-surrender.html

Stiff upper lip chaps.

Edited January 30, 2014 by JOPRO

[Gustywind]

On accuweather they mentioned another 6 weeks of bitter cold and snow for Eastern Canada and NE USA, all courtesy of our best mate the Canadian vortex. That would take us to mid March!

Mind you the 2nd half if March was pretty spectacular last year, sadly I think March 2013 was a one in fifty year event. I'm personally expecting a chilly 1st half of April, then a very warm summer.

[Gord]

Gibby's model summary was so "exciting" that it's been posted in the Mod forum twice! Once by Gibby, and again by someone else. Just in case we didn't appreciate how dire the outlook was the first time around.

 

Have to say, I threw in the towel a while ago...but I just can't help myself from looking at the models. It's like a bad itch that you shouldn't scratch...although this particular itch this winter has become infected.

 

Impressed with those in the model thread who do keep it going. Gibby updates once or twice a day, Summer Sun still reguarly posts charts and there's others too. OK, they're not posting stuff that some of us (including myself) want to see, but as a weather forum, we need to know what's going on all of the time if we're to learn about patterns and the evolutions of them. Don't know people's preferences to weather and can't say how much joy or pain these posters are getting from sharing such charts...but hats off to you whatever it is.

 

For me personally though...I will keep viewing your posts with the upmost respect....then have a little swear and a grumble under my breath before logging off and finding something else to do instead.

 

And tomorrow is the start of the weekend....no weather model can take that away!

Edited January 30, 2014 by Gord

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Gibby's model summary was so "exciting" that it's been posted in the Mod forum twice! Once by Gibby, and again by someone else. Just in case we didn't appreciate how dire the outlook was the first time around.

 

Have to say, I threw in the towel a while ago...but I just can't help myself from looking at the models. It's like a bad itch that you shouldn't scratch...although this particular itch this winter has become infected.

 

Impressed with those in the model thread who do keep it going. Gibby updates once or twice a day, Summer Sun still reguarly posts charts and there's others too. OK, they're not posting stuff that some of us (including myself) want to see, but as a weather forum, we need to know what's going on all of the time if we're to learn about patterns and the evolutions of them. Don't know people's preferences to weather and can't say how much joy or pain these posters are getting from sharing such charts...but hats off to you whatever it is.

 

For me personally though...I will keep viewing your posts with the upmost respect....then have a little swear and a grumble under my breath before logging off and finding something else to do instead.

 

And tomorrow is the start of the weekend....no weather model can take that away!

 

long way until end of snow season yet! still got last week of Feb, upto around easter 20th Apr, thats the best time of year for blocking, greenie highs etc

[Tony27]

i hope we don't get a bartlett high it reminds me of this

Edited January 30, 2014 by Tony27

[damianslaw]

Already looking forward to next winter - this one really has been a miserable dismal affair so far, too much rain, too little brightness, too little in the way of cold weather, too much wind.. on the back of a dismal autumn.

 

I wonder if this winter ends up the equivalent to the summer of 12.

 

I really won't be surprised if this very wet period is suddenly exchanged for a very dry one, and come the summer we'll be bemoaning how dry it is.. we are a fickle lot...

 

I can see it now, wettest winter followed by driest summer on record on the back of coldest snowiest April on record.. There is that feel to things at present i.e. extreme weather patterns compared to the norm. There is a propensity in this country for notable cold weather to be followed by notable mild weather and vice versa and notably wet weather followed by notably dry weather and vice versa. A marked switch in conditions will occur after this very lengthy wet period which began at the start of October.

[Catacol]

My God I'm finding this weather depressing! - no wonder Kurt Cobain shot himself, it wasn't the drugs, fame or coffee but the incessant rain.

 

I've been collating winter records since 1983 but nothing compares to the utter woefulness of this one.

 

It's grim. I have concluded that while a solar max increases the chances of an SSW in a +QBO winter it also means that, if there ISNT an SSW, the westerly flow is so enhanced over the atlantic that HL or ML blocking becomes a near impossibility and we end up very wet indeed. The sun appears to be at its peak pretty much now.

 

What I am still uncertain about is why the strat got quite so cold. Was that also solar max related? Was it just luck? Was the mid latitude pattern too stagnant? Dont have enough expertise here.

 

I have one very long term straw to clutch. We are soon to be on the downward side of the solar cycle and I am one who believes quite strongly that an active sun enhances the westerly flow. With a -QBO set for next winter and a sun getting more quiet I expect next winter to have much better background signals for us - and to be honest as the sun heads for the next minimum - maybe a very low minimum indeed if you believe the hype - then maybe the winter of 2013/14 will be just a blip in the run of winters post 2007 showing much colder synoptics for the UK. It is not an unreasonable hypothesis. With the pacific now in a cold phase and the atlantic set to follow at some stage soon then there may well be some stonkingly exciting winter spells through 2015 - 20.

Edited January 30, 2014 by Catacol_Highlander

[Gaz1985]

Apart from the rain I've enjoyed this Winter, just need high pressure to anchor itself to the south or over us and it would be a perfect end for me, CFS hinting at high pressure from mid Feb onwards.

[Bobby]

Apart from the rain I've enjoyed this Winter, just need high pressure to anchor itself to the south or over us and it would be a perfect end for me, CFS hinting at high pressure from mid Feb onwards.

 

Shame about March lol

 

 

[Bobby]

Just proves - not worth even bothering about, lol c'mon...if they're allegedly even remotely accurate, why is this weekend still proving to be a difficult call for some. Yawn

 

True. Best ignore anything beyond 14 days, not worth the bother.