Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[DAVID SNOW]

Long range forecasts are a bit useless I think but short range and medium forecasts are pretty accurate these days.

 

I think all the tea leaves, seaweed and old farmers/folk sayings enthusiasts should get together and make a long range forecast based on them for this summer and see how they compare to the 'scientific' ones. I think there won't be much difference and the seaweed et all has a good chance at coming on top! Would be a bit of fun at least.

 

Follow the Grebes,thats the way forward. Nuff said.....

[Mokidugway]

If I dont get any snow or frost this year, I will be writing to my m p in the strongest terms and will be expecting him to do something about this diabolical situation immediately !!....

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It's been the worst winter since 1988/89, actually even worse with the misery of flooding combined! Grrrrr!!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It's been the worst winter since 1988/89, actually even worse with the misery of flooding combined! Grrrrr!!!!

 

Gaz1985, Richie V, Bobby like this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Timmytour]

Remember that brilliant picture of the UK from space, covered in snow?

Well GFS has dished out a representation in its FI to show the feelings of those who were hoping to see the same again throughout the UK.....feeling very bruised

Edited January 30, 2014 by Timmytour

[mike Meehan]

I liken it to that rather tragic song a few years ago - ' A pub with no beer'

[SnowObsessor90]

Thank god my footy team are doing so well, don't know what I'd be like now if that wasn't the case.

[Iceni]

It's so wet damp and miserable

 

Next person to say it's wet, 'orrible, miserable, damp, shocking, wins a booby prize

 

It's wet, 'orrible, miserable, damp and I think it's shocking.

 

Where's my fiver?

Edited January 30, 2014 by Iceni

[Iceni]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N18HZJLG9jghttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpU7ycYLNIoGod help us if it is thishttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qISV2HaPpZU

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfivzUF9dp4

 

 

OOI The second link 'Watching Flowers in the Rain' by The Move (1967) was the very first record played on Radio 1. After the BBC had stamped out the Boats which Rocked.

Edited January 30, 2014 by Iceni

[drgl]

I have come to the belief that weather forecasting is about as reliable as fortune telling.  If you allow for so many variables and possible outcomes then one of them has to hit the mark at some point.  It's just all guesswork regardless of what the models and computers are trying to predict.

& that should be pinned to the model thread! Like others have said, pure luck when any long range forecast comes off. Show me one forecast that has got this winter right thus far?

 

I think it is like predicting the path of a stick flowing down a river in full flood (ironic). It could go anywhere.

Edited January 30, 2014 by drgl

[snow freak]

knowing our luck the weather pattern will change come April/May and we will end up with bitterly cold weather then.  Not cold enough for snow but still cold enough for us not to be able to turn off our heating.  God i hate this countries weather sometimes.

[Troubleatmill]

 

It's very much back to square one this morning apart from the UKMO which delays the energy from the PV over Siberia feeding its evil twin over in Canada.

 

The ECM loses the height rises near Svalbard and the GFS goes into a more December like zonal pattern. There is some positives coming out of the strat but you would never guess it by looking at the models today.

 

Overall the stalemate continues with troughing never likely to make much eastwards progress past the UK, unless the trop responds quickly to the signals from the strat than I'm afraid we can rule out anything wintry for the next two weeks.

 

We can just hope that there will be a quick response because the strat info is really not correlating with what we're seeing in the trop.

 

 

I think you were right the other day Nick, wouldnt be suprised if the ruskies have been firing up something into the atmosphere to ensure they have a big high pressure ready for the Olympics. At the same time the Yanks have been firing something up to set the Atlantic on fire to try and blast that HP to bits. Could happen

Edited January 30, 2014 by Nicholas B

[blitzen]

I think you were right the other day Nick, wouldnt be suprised if the ruskies have been firing up something into the atmosphere to ensure they have a big high pressure ready for the Olympics. At the same time the Yanks have been firing something up to set the Atlantic on fire to try and blast that HP to bits. Could happen

Not sure where this post should go Mods as I feel it could perhaps be model related?

We all know that certain countries have the ability to manipulate the weather for whatever reason. In the case of the USA however, I don't think their issue is so much with the Ruskies? more to do with the under reported fallout from Fukushima. Dire consequences are and have been showing up on the American west coast for a while now. Perhaps it is their method to reduce/delay the onslaught?  The article describes the west coast weather:

 

 

"The problem is a huge atmospheric ridge of high-pressure that’s been hovering off the coast for an unprecedented 13 months. Storms can’t break through, so they go around and over it. The really worrying part, as the Christian Science Monitor explained this week, is that the longer the ridge hangs around, the sturdier it gets. Nobody knows when it will disband. (And no, we also don’t yet know if all this is linked to climate change, but California will doubtless be glad to trumpet a connection.)"

 

http://sorendreier.c...a-in-500-years

Edited January 30, 2014 by Blitzen

[JOPRO]

Snowing here today, Peed off feel like I have just lost on Bullseye ''Lets have a look what you could have won....!''

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umA1YevBTSI

Edited January 30, 2014 by JOPRO

[Rose]

Morning all, just shows how desperate for snow i've become because as I drove from home ( nr Tutbury)  to work (Tamworth)  & those lovely white crystals fell from the sky I couldn't stop grinning! I know it won't last etc etc but, all the same, it's so nice to see & it's still snowing on & off now, cheered me up no end. Trying not to think it's very temporary...................

[JOPRO]

Unfortunately that's not the case for me. It is about 2C and overcast for me.

 

Sounds like just another day in Paradise..!

[Rose]

Unfortunately that's not the case for me. It is about 2C and overcast for me.

 

Well, don't be envious as it's now been replaced with dank, wet, cold yeuk & not a snow flake to be seen as per usual of late..........  I knew it was short lived but that's ridiculous!!

[Rose]

I take it back, there are a few snowflakes falling so I am feeling the snow excitement.

 

Hooray!  Enjoy it, it must have travelled up country!

[TonyH]

Think it's the other way around. I'm 53 and can only count a handful of hot summers and that includes 1976 on the other hand since 1979 there has been many more cold winters!

I am 54 and at least 10 very warm/ hot Summers so about one in 5! (75, 76, 83, 84, 89, 90, 95, 2003, 2006, 2013)

[TonyH]

I am 54 and at least 10 very warm/ hot Summers so about one in 5! (75, 76, 83, 84, 89, 90, 95, 2003, 2006, 2013)

Cold Winters I would say: 63 (do not recall!), 79, 82, 87, 91, 96, 2010, Dec 2010

So all in all slightly more good Summers I would say in a rudimentary fashion!

Edited January 30, 2014 by TonyH

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Notice the trend of warm summers in couples. Seen as we saw a good one last year, we may be due another good one this year. I really hope so.

[snow freak]

I knew i was tempting fate when i paid for my car to have a winter check back in the Autumn.  I should have known then that we would have a mild and snowless winter after having that done.  Just thankful i didnt go the whole hog and buy snow chains for the car which i was sorely tempted to do.  Would have been such a waste of money.  Would rather now just take my chances in any paltry snow and ice we might get.

[snow freak]

Notice the trend of warm summers in couples. Seen as we saw a good one last year, we may be due another good one this year. I really hope so.

sorry but i dont recall last summer being particularly great.  No very high temperatures or long dry periods.  Okay not a washout summer but also not a particularly memorable one either.  Actually pretty normal and unremarkable in my opinion.

[Milhouse]

sorry but i dont recall last summer being particularly great.  No very high temperatures or long dry periods.  Okay not a washout summer but also not a particularly memorable one either.  Actually pretty normal and unremarkable in my opinion.

 

It wasnt spectacular along the lines of 76 or 95 but i feel it will be hard to achieve a better summer than 2013 this year. It was nice to hear the media mentioning how it had been a good summer instead of the usual doom and gloom.

[stainesbloke]

Parts of the Midlands and northern England seeing snow falling today, so this winter not a TOTAL disaster for some lol...

Possibly more surprises to come in the next few days. And we're not into Feb yet, quite a lot of winter left to go. Suppose we should keep a shred of hope alive