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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

"Background signals, blah, blah"

Mother Nature never fails to surprise - Are the February 'forecasts' already blown out of the water? Or, to put it more correctly, sinking in the water! And copious amounts of it too!

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border

Sorry, am I in the moaning thread by any chance? Taxi!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Incorrect assumption as both mean maxima and minima have been mild this Winter.

Yes, the planet as a whole in December was the 3rd warmest since records began. The lack of any cold pushes the mean up, and cold has been MIA.
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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham

Not much mention of the depth of the storm at 96ECM has it around 955, which meansStorm force winds, rain , hail and snow for the highlands.The sands of time are beginning to run low on this dire winterIve seen a couple of flakes I think in late November - i fear that is all im going to see .......

seen more than me then!
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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

Bit of a rubbish winter....about 5 frosts for me with temps never dipping below about 5 degrees in the daytime, nigh time temps pretty bad too, lowest about 1.5 degrees. Hopefully we'll see some frosts and cold shots throughout Feb, March and maybe April...who knows. Just hope we don't have another warm summer...hate them.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Sorry, am I in the moaning thread by any chance? Taxi!!!!

Taxi got caught in the floodsPosted Image

 

It looks like we are looking at a reboot of the disturbed december pattern, unusual because during feb the atlantic normally has a more benign look but all I can see is more storm damage and more flooding..what a rubbish winter!

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Yes, the planet as a whole in December was the 3rd warmest since records began. The lack of any cold pushes the mean up, and cold has been MIA.

Wrong thread incorrect Met Office says Global Temperatures at a standstill have been for 17 yrs.http://www.thegwpf.org/uk-met-office-global-temperature-standstill-continues/

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

steve murr and nick sussex writing off this winter now.Things really are dire now.

 

Expect perfect winter sypnotics now then lol

 

well wait until spring and I guarantee we will have perfect winter charts then

 

to be frank people expect too much from uk winters regarding snow

 

I know we have been spoilt the last few  winters,but really the uk is one of the worst countries to live in the NH if you like snow and ice.

 

 mainly because of being surrounded by sea water that rarely falls below 8c in winter,thanks to the gulf stream.

 

At about 2500ft asl in the Highlands then the uk is a winter  wonderland most years but not many of the UK population live at  those heights.

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

that's three big guns thrown in the towel for this Winter...Hugo, Ferguson and Murr.I'm holding of until Chiono says so.

Oh dear.... just seen this after I posted in the strat thread...

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

 

steve murr and nick sussex writing off this winter now.Things really are dire now.

 

Expect perfect winter sypnotics now then lol

 

well wait until spring and I guarantee we will have perfect winter charts then

 

 

Think we can write Feb off as a snowless month in the south, that leaves march upto mid Apr, already writing off the 2nd half of April for snow, just cannot see the south getting snow late april this year

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

SAD winter for the British Isles ( Snowless And Depressing). Had 30 cm of fresh snowfall last night. Hope it lasts as the longer term forecast looks dry and mild here in the Alps for the first part of February.

Some places in England may not even see a single snowflake for the 3 month winter period, all probably reserved for March when it will just melt away by 11am !

Sorry, just feel sad for all you UK snow lovers.

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Posted
  • Location: West Northants
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Winters, Warm Summers.
  • Location: West Northants

You have to laugh the wife asked when it was going to snow this morning as she want to get our 4 month old a snowsuit! My reply was a wetsuit would be better. What a sack of S**t this winter is. If I hear ''we have been spoilt the last few winters'' again I will scream. Could I see some science behind this reoccurring statement please!?

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

I have seen a bit of wintry weather, sleet/wet snow 19th Dec, sleet/hail Xmas eve, sleet/wet snow 13-14th Jan, decent thunderstorm with hail on 25th Jan, sleet/wet snow on 26th, early 27th

 

also quite a few frosts/ice, but generally I still feel it is autumn but in a way has it been a cold Jan? mostly snowless but no 10+ max temps, 8 sub zero minimums

Edited by IrememberAtlantic252
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm & Sunny
  • Location: West Sussex

that's three big guns thrown in the towel for this Winter...Hugo, Ferguson and Murr.I'm holding of until Chiono says so.

Murr actually mentioned a storm!! At least it's nice to read comments on what the models are showing for the realistic timeframe, rather than reading as to whether one model is "poor" just because it doesn't show what they want to see, whether or not it's an "upgrade", or simply the search for the elusive snowflake by saying "what WE need to happen is...."
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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

Yep game over for winter now I think, cheering on high pressure now or Bartlett as at least that may stop the incessant wet weather. Looking forward to summer now.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Look on the bright side, at least we probably won't have a water shortage this yearPosted Image

 

Models look very unsettled, very windy at times with temps close to average with occasional milder and colder intervals.

Oh yeah? What's the betting we end up getting a hosepipe ban this summer? Only in Britain....Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

A point that I made in the model thread yesterday: A lot of people have mentioned a "Bartlett" as a possible saviour for dry weather but it all depends on how far north/west the high ridges.  Many of us probably have an image of the conditions during January and the first half of February 1989, or February 1998, when the high frequently ridged over southern Britain, above-average rainfall was largely confined to northern and western Scotland and Cumbria, and sunshine totals were mostly above average to the south of the Scottish border, markedly so in many eastern and southern areas.  But when the high sits over Europe with a strong jet running over the top, as in early February 2004, then most of western Britain can end up very wet under the tropical maritime flow, and thus while southern England would get some relief from the flooding issues, most of Wales and NW England as well as N and W Scotland would see the problems get worse.

 

The highs responsible for the fine spells around 8-20 February 2008 and the last third of March 2012 were not technically Bartlett highs as they ended up centred in the North Sea rather than over Europe- this allowed the dry sunny weather to extend further north/west than is normal under a true "Bartlett" setup.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

I think it is almost time to wrap up thoughts of this winter... and move on. Here in the SW it has been truly awful, and the small skill I have with teleconnections and subsequent forecasting is now telling me that February is lining up the same way. The fact that the Met see it the same just adds doom to the gloom.

 

I find it all so very depressing and it definitely impacts on my psyche. Right now I would happily emigrate and leave the grey and wet UK behind.

 

Realistically though we will all be back for more in November. I hope to goodness we dont get a repeat of this. Canadian Warming please in early December - that would be the starter we want...

It shows just how awful it has been when people start talking in happy terms of a possible Euro high!! Any other winter and a Euro "Bartlett" High would be pelted with forum grown rotten tomatoes from all angles!

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Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

1814...the last year there was a frost fair on the Thames

it all started on the 1st Feb.

There's still time!! <desperate clinging>

No need for an elephant this year...Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France
  • Weather Preferences: Continental type climate with lots of sunshine with occasional storm
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France

I keep tellin' yer what I want - that's a Scandy/NW Russian high blowing in a dry continental air, picking up a bit of moisture over the channel to give us a streamer depositing dry powder snow, drifting nicely at Watford with a max temp of -5C, nothing less. Yoos can keep yer slushy daffy snow.

 

Then a warm spring developing into a bootiful summer with endless blue skies and max's averaging 30C - don't want much really. Posted Image

Edited by mike Meehan
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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

A note to disappointed cold snow loving people (which i enjoy myself to), last year March and April were the coldest of the winter and brought some snow to so while many say "ah well winter over come end of February think again to last year!!

 

 

As ever though our priority thoughts should be with the people hit by the floody`s (excuse my made up expression, just polite way to describe them) and  what`s to come with a trail of Low pressures to hit at the end of the week and in to next week bringing yet more misery for those already hit.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

I keep tellin' yer what I want - that's a Scandy/NW Russian high blowing in a dry continental air, picking up a bit of moisture over the channel to give us a streamer depositing dry powder snow, drifting nicely at Watford with a max temp of -5C, nothing less. Yoos can keep yer slushy daffy snow.

 

Then a warm spring developing into a bootiful summer with endless blue skies and max's averaging 30C - don't want much really. Posted Image

 

My sentiments echoed!

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