Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[SnowObsessor90]

I have massive dilemma on my hands now, do I just around and wait for something to materialise  or do I take a trip to the alps/ Switzerland and risk making a fool out of myself in event that the cold does end up arriving?, either way I can't win.

Edited January 27, 2014 by SnowObsessor90

[snow freak]

true there is February and March ...and even April to go, but with the forecast for nothing cold in February then we are going into March, which by then is too late imo.  yes we could get snow but it wont hang around for very long.  Why can't we just get 'winter' weather when we should (ie. in the winter rather than the spring)?

[snow freak]

I have massive dilemma on my hands now, do I just around and wait for something to materialise  or do I take a trip to the alps/ Switzerland and risk making a fool out of myself in event that the cold does end up arriving?, either way I can't win.

personally i would take that trip if you're lucky enough to be able to afford it.  I wouldnt hold out much hope for anything to happen on these shores.

[Mapantz]

So far this month I have recorded 247mm of rain

Exactly the same as me!

[cobbett]

If you need a laugh, have a look at maddens twitter page and the comments - hilarious, cheered me up anyway

[Jason74]

Tamara has maintained the possibility of a cold spell. Maybe around the second week of February.

[snowbob]

Tamara is our new gp

She makes fantastic posts

When every one is losing there heads.

Excellent work Tamara

Thanks.

[cobbett]

Tamara is our new gpShe makes fantastic postsWhen every one is losing there heads.Excellent work TamaraThanks.

Agree they are good posts but personally I prefer a more SM type approach - punchy one liners with at least a stab at a prediction. With tamara I find my eyes glazing over by the time I've tried to absorb what shes says - thats just me being dense not a critique !

Is she predicting a cold mid Feb though, appeared to be too many if's and buts to me on that one

[snow drift]

I think all coldies are going to need some patience, its about 10 months until november!!!!!  This winter has been hideous. no cold and just shed loads of rain and more to come by the looks of it. 

[Tony27]

we don't need to wait till november for autumn it's autumn now

[JOPRO]

Winter doom merchants having a field day I see, the search for cold starts again. Fickle model flips cold to mild, then hopefully back to cold again!

[Bristawl Si]

Tamara is our new gpShe makes fantastic postsWhen every one is losing there heads.Excellent work TamaraThanks.

If the predictions come true.At the mo the weather is defying all the 'experts' and 'soothsayers'.......except for Meto who have been bang on the money, most of the time. Edited January 27, 2014 by Bristle boy

[Summer Sun]

Something I've noticed in quite a few updates lately from the met's longer range update is this

 

Northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent spells of unsettled and windy weather

 

"Meanwhile southern and eastern regions will tend to see the longer spells of drier and brighter weather. Some colder periods are possible, particularly between the weather systems, but in general temperatures close to the seasonal average are most likely"

 

Currently covers Tuesday 11 Feb 2014 to Tuesday 25 Feb

 

That suggests to me high pressure could start and influence the south and east more than of late with low pressure crossing north of Scotland, I know non of the models so this currently but it would be welcome news for the likes of somerset

[Just Below Zero]

Jet stream near full steam as well just ahead of the system too..

 

gfs4image (1).png

 

Something to keep an eye on

 

That looks like a duck in the water to me!!

[Liam J]

Might need to change my travel plans for the end of the week, due to travel up to Aviemore on Saturday and I'm not liking the charts - blizzard conditions higher up! I might travel up on the Friday ahead of this incoming system. Might see some changes as this is still 5 days away, UKMO also looking a bit scary. 

 

 

 

UKMO

 

 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2014 by Liam J

[Carl46Wrexham]

Winter doom merchants having a field day I see, the search for cold starts again. Fickle model flips cold to mild, then hopefully back to cold again!

 

And before you know it.....winter weather will be....wait for it...(drum roll)......TEN DAYS AWAY.....ta daaaa...backed up by a chart showing stratospheric warming at t+288 or further out still.

 

December was an epic fail of a winter month...January goes in the bin as well....February??? Does anyone have any faith that it will turn out any different? I don't...I reckon winter 2013/14 will go down as the worst since 1988/89...in terms of rainfall possibly even worse.

[Long haul to mild]

You can tell that the model output is poor for cold when there's only 3 pages of posts all day in the main thread, and half of them are from mild rampers!

 

I still think February has something cold in store for us; maybe not in the first week, but soon after.

Edited January 27, 2014 by Long haul to mild

[JOPRO]

And before you know it.....winter weather will be....wait for it...(drum roll)......TEN DAYS AWAY.....ta daaaa...backed up by a chart showing stratospheric warming at t+288 or further out still.

 

December was an epic fail of a winter month...January goes in the bin as well....February??? Does anyone have any faith that it will turn out any different? I don't...I reckon winter 2013/14 will go down as the worst since 1988/89...in terms of rainfall possibly even worse.

 

Must mean it will be cold next winter for sure!! White xmas a dead cert.  (Yeah Rite....)

[Bristawl Si]

And before you know it.....winter weather will be....wait for it...(drum roll)......TEN DAYS AWAY.....ta daaaa...backed up by a chart showing stratospheric warming at t+288 or further out still. December was an epic fail of a winter month...January goes in the bin as well....February??? Does anyone have any faith that it will turn out any different? I don't...I reckon winter 2013/14 will go down as the worst since 1988/89...in terms of rainfall possibly even worse.

Spot on Carl...........jam 'tomorrow'.

[Bristawl Si]

I think a cautionary note on the strat warming.... it's something UKMO's M-R folk have been watching closely all winter (as you'd imagine). I just asked about this, i.e. re their views on the NCEP signals of late. They tell me: "GLOSEA5, the UKMO seasonal model, doesn't seem to support this event all that much and since it hasn't been working so far this season in terms of getting the warmer air down in reality, this signal isn't being used in relation to forecasting a change to colder periods." 

There was a much more pronounced signal emerging back in earlier Jan (modelled for later Jan and into early Feb, as some on this forum are aware), but that was lost.

That'll do me....Meto says "No". The top performers this Winter.

[tight isobar]

Well as a forecast, an overall permit, I'd rather not neither commit nor judge until support ( via ens) or 18z have rolled out.

[winterof79]

That'll do me....Meto says "No". The top performers this Winter.

Any idea who they out performed at all?They are payed professionals and have forecast well so far.

[yorkieblade]

I think a cautionary note on the strat warming.... it's something UKMO's M-R folk have been watching closely all winter (as you'd imagine). I just asked about this, i.e. re their views on the NCEP signals of late. They tell me: "GLOSEA5, the UKMO seasonal model, doesn't seem to support this event all that much and since it hasn't been working so far this season in terms of getting the warmer air down in reality, this signal isn't being used in relation to forecasting a change to colder periods." 

There was a much more pronounced signal emerging back in earlier Jan (modelled for later Jan and into early Feb, as some on this forum are aware), but that was lost.

Meto have navigated their way through this Winter with great professionalism, ( as they have too of course) but great posts from Ian and colleagues on this forum really help the novices ( me included) navigate their way through some of the posts - as already said above whatever the models have shown this year Meto have been bang on the money with their forecasts this Winter , obviously the finances used on the "super models" they use is money and time well spent it appears.

[Tamara]

If the predictions come true.

At the mo the weather is defying all the 'experts' and 'soothsayers'.......except for Meto who have been bang on the money, most of the time.

I rather think the intention is to provide some analysis and explanation of what is happening in the model output and possibilities ahead, and not making cast iron predictions. Any predictions that have been made being centred around how the NH pattern may evolve - and not using an oracle to predict a freeze or other definitive prediction of weather type. I'm not just talking about me here, but many many other members of this forum who try to do such analysis. And very well they do it too imo.

 

As for the METO, well they are professionals with more information to hand than members of this forum (or 'soothsayers' as you describe them/us) who are simply trying to provide helpful guidance with whatever information is available. No-one here is earning a wage for what they are doing - so therefore they can afford to speculate a lot more.

 

At least people are having a go at reading between the lines - also its a lot to expect of anyone here to follow someone of the depth of knowledge and ability of GP since he left net weather. But Chiono f.e has made an excellent start with a forecast for the winter that has followed proceedings very accurately. A strong vortex was expected - but gauging the amount of strength is something that the METO will struggle with too...

 

Spot on Carl...........jam 'tomorrow'.

 

Can you do better?

Edited January 27, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[mike Meehan]

I'm getting absolutely p'd off with the weather this winter - I'm quite pessimistic  about getting the snow I really like i.e. lovely fluffy stuff with a temp of -5C, so now pinning my hopes on a barbecue summer with temps 25C+ and wall to wall blue skies.