Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Summer Sun]

A few tweets from Ian Fergusson can be found via the link below, low risk any disruptive snow by midweek. Strongest signal uplands Midlands N'ward

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79205-weather-tweets/?p=2906919

[Bobby]

Not buying the UKMO idea, is at odds with virtually all other output. Suggestions the ECM is a medium range model therefore perhaps less accurate at short range, when things start diverging. But to be accurate at the medium range it also has be accurate at short range as errors there result in big errors at medium range?

 

Expecting it to back down later, or perhaps the Mexican standoff between the big 3 will continue a wee bit longer. Or perhaps the UKMO is Clint Eastwood....

 

Edited January 25, 2014 by Bobby

[cobbett]

Can never understand these forecasters who whenever they get asked about the coming week they cite that there are more pressing concerns re the rain this weekend. Err what are these guys doing - manning the flood barriers themselves or what.

I think everyone knows there will be a lot of rain coming up and all the relevant authorities have been notified and warnings issued, so always seems to me to be a an odd phrase which is wheeled out every time we have a lot of rain forecast

[Barking_Mad]

20mins until the GFS rolls out - *pats it on head* good boy. Sit! Roll over!

[Bobby]

As I expected it looks like the UKMO is Lee van Cleef rather than Eastwood...

[JOPRO]

Normal flapping on the mod thered over one run I see,normal suspects at it as well.

[terrier]

Think frosty is going to need to pull out all the stops on mod thread tonight. Looks like after a very brief cold spell mid week the Atlantic come storming through. More rain which ain't good.

[Frosty_wsm]

I'm sometimes think one or two are on the wind up in here, today being a good example when the UKMO was showing a fantastic output for cold and snow, then we had one or two saying that was out of kilter with the GFS and ECM, so it must be wrong. Now we have the UKMO showing the Atlantic bursting through and the GFS showing a cold, unsettled and potentially snowy end to next week and those one or two have now backed the UKMO with the usual told you so comments.

It's called using charts to backup their own agenda, trolls and wind up merchants are experts at this tactic! Must admit all the point scoring going on in the mod thread right now is very tedious and childish to say the least, you can tell by the reaction of a few posters that they literally must sit there just waiting for the models to show the slightest of backtracks and they pounce all over the charts and can't wait to post with glee about how they were right, but then that is what trolls and wind up merchants like doing so why am I not surprised.Oh and the post i replied to was originally posted in the mod thread, I thought I'd copy and paste a reply in this thread, going by 90% of the posts in the mod thread this afternoon it appears I'm just one of the few forum members bothering to post in the correct thread! (mods : do I win a prize) lol Edited January 25, 2014 by Smartie

[weather eater]

It's called using charts to backup their own agenda, trolls and wind up merchants are experts at this tactic!

Must admit all the point scoring going on in the mod thread right now is very tedious and childish to say the least, you can tell by the reaction of a few posters that they literally must sit there just waiting for the models to show the slightest of backtracks and they pounce all over the charts and can't wait to post with glee about how they were right, but then that is what trolls and wind up merchants like doing so why am I not surprised.

Oh and the post i replied to was originally posted in the mod thread, I thought I'd copy and paste a reply in this thread, going by 90% of the posts in the mod thread this afternoon it appears I'm just one of the few forum members bothering to post in the correct thread! (mods : do I win a prize) lol

I have to say as am unashamed coldie that I often find myself hoping that things will go pear shaped for cold because of the level of rudeness on the model thread by a sizeable crowd, rudeness to anyone who’s not gung-ho for cold, anybody in fact who so much as makes a case for what can go wrong, it is a disgrace. What we have in reality is a lot of people on both sides of the fence who want to rub peoples noses in it when they are right about how synoptics have panned out. The simple fact of the matter is codies out weigh mild fans on the model forum at about 50 - 1 and frankly they use that weight in numbers to bully, there are plenty of people sitting on their high horses slagging others off who themselves are no better than play ground bullies, some people would be advised to look at themselves first before having digs at others.

Edited January 25, 2014 by weather eater

[Rammie]

So, can I ask, is the significant snowfall, with serious drifting, which yesterday, was nailed on and in the reliable time frame,...... Still on??

[I remember Atlantic 252]

As expected UKMO  backed down, GFS likely to have had this right all along, I still expect low levels in the south to be snowless by this time next week

Edited January 25, 2014 by reef

[Weather-history]

Snow causes misery and disruption to 95% of the country and 95% of the population if surveyed would tell you as much.  It's fun for kids ( Although i hated it as a child ) and at a stretch the lucky few who's day to day lives are not affected by it due to not being able to work etc.

Snow causes disruption in this country because we simply can't adapt to it most of the time. There should be no excuses that a couple of inches of snow should cause chaos. We do not get the great snowstorms that North America get.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

When you sit back and think about it you just couldnt make our luck up-

The number of times down the years i have seen fabtastic cold charts from GFS/ECM at 144h and the UKMO saying no and nearly EVERY time the UKMO has been correct-i might be wrong but it might of even been 120h a couple of times..

The ONE time i can remember the UKMO showing cold heaven at 144h and the ECM/GFS not agreeing the UKMO goes and completely backs off.

I had a full head of brown hair when i joined this (great) forum,is it any wonder i look in the mirror and see tele savalas 

[DTHFCJ]

When you sit back and think about it you just couldnt make our luck up-

The number of times down the years i have seen fabtastic cold charts from GFS/ECM at 144h and the UKMO saying no and nearly EVERY time the UKMO has been correct-i might be wrong but it might of even been 120h a couple of times..

The ONE time i can remember the UKMO showing cold heaven at 144h and the ECM/GFS not agreeing the UKMO goes and completely backs off.

I had a full head of brown hair when i joined this (great) forum,is it any wonder i look in the mirror and see tele savalas 

Who loves ya baby........

[Carl46Wrexham]

Is it safe to blow out January as an epic fail of a winter month yet?

Edited January 25, 2014 by Carl46Wrexham

[conor123]

18z yet another downgrade, looks increasingly likely were probably end up with an Azores high by the end of the week rather than anything wintry, story of the winter thus far, NEVER any cross agreement between the models.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18z yet another downgrade, looks increasingly likely were probably end up with an Azores high by the end of the week rather than anything wintry, story of the winter thus far, NEVER any cross agreement between the models.

 

wont see any cold before mid Feb for south, although there could be wet snow at times next week, before Atlantic roars in on friday

[Barking_Mad]

It's called using charts to backup their own agenda, trolls and wind up merchants are experts at this tactic!Must admit all the point scoring going on in the mod thread right now is very tedious and childish to say the least, you can tell by the reaction of a few posters that they literally must sit there just waiting for the models to show the slightest of backtracks and they pounce all over the charts and can't wait to post with glee about how they were right, but then that is what trolls and wind up merchants like doing so why am I not surprised.Oh and the post i replied to was originally posted in the mod thread, I thought I'd copy and paste a reply in this thread, going by 90% of the posts in the mod thread this afternoon it appears I'm just one of the few forum members bothering to post in the correct thread! (mods : do I win a prize) lol

 

Im not an expert on charts (putting it mildly!), but it's perhaps natural that when people go against the grain and say (in this case) that we arent going to see much snow and have a return to the Atlantic, that when challenged and in some cases derided, that when proven correct they like to make their point.

 

Of course it takes a bigger person not to point this out and just get on with posting, but human behaviour being as it is, it's perhaps not surprising they defend their honour...I frequent other forums (non-weather based) and I actually find this place very well behaved and respectful of others posts. 

 

It's hard trying to sort the wheat form the chaff in there, but it's fun and interesting and often informative (although i have a problem when i wake up at 3am and check the site to see what the latest views are!) - but if you want a real forecast it's probably best just to watch the experts at the Met Office ;-) 

 

What would be fun would be to have a way of measuring the success of posters forecasts week by week so we'd know who has reading the charts well and who wasn't. If i had the willpower id set something up, but im drunk and cant be arsed

 

Still, it's all good fun.

[conor123]

wont see any cold before mid Feb for south, although there could be wet snow at times next week, before Atlantic roars in on friday

Really is ridiculous how we can't get any amplification/undercutting this winter, could have a 1080 high with -25 upper's to the east and a 1010mb low would still barge through :lol:

[Barking_Mad]

You're absolutely right. This country is absoluelty pathetic at dealing with any sort of weather event. Whenever there is like 5cm of snow, everywhere grinds to a halt and when we go two weeks without rain, they introduce a hosepipe ban. Nontheless, I just want to see one significant snowfall of 10cm or so this winter, then I would be happy.

 

We don't do any weather well as we get a little bit of everything which makes us under prepared for a lot of one thing! Especially true of snow. 

[Barking_Mad]

That is the only argument that we don't get it very often, but what I don understand about the snow is that in the last few years we have had several bad winters, yet we still can't seem to deal with it.

 

Well i can only speak for what it's been like in my part of the world, Leeds. The first winter when we had heavy snow in the last few year was terrible. Council very unprepared, roads a nightmare - even the major trunk roads. Last year however they did do a very good job - in general..

 

Their issue im sure is how much money to spend on vehicles and equipment for snow when it might, or might not arrive. They could buy gritters, or the equipment to fit to gritters - but if they buy say 20 piecs of gritting equipment on the back of a heavy winter, but next winter is very mild, the n they have thousands of pounds worth of kit sat around doing nothing, whilst people moan about the lack of resources invested in (insert your compaint here).

 

So they often take a pragmatic view and dont invest heavily, but enough to at least try and cover the basics. Im sure the Highlands dont have the same issue - they know they're going to get shed loads of snow so can invest in equipment without fear of it sat in a garage being unused.

 

I dont work for the council btw !

Edited January 25, 2014 by Barking_Mad

[Barking_Mad]

Equally people lose the skills (or dont have any at all!) to drive in snow when we dont get a bad winter in say, 5 years. No experience, no knowledge = accidents and people driving like idiots. Lots of snow for a few years and people get better at driving in cold, snowy conditions.

 

Hazards of being in a temperate climate i guess.

[london-snow]

18z throws another variation into the mix and sends the low north east???.Would seem that someone is twiddling with the computers today lol.See what the morning brings and any more quick changes esp with the points made across the pond.

I did say that nick a.k.a. Dr Sussex has got a deal lined up with the meto will his emergency prozac tablets be needed tomorrow morning or will we leave him with the overstocked tablets that he is just going to chuck in the river because they won't be needed on this occasion. See you tomorrow all hopefully i won't be making that hot line call...

[Richie V]

This post is very perplexing, goes against what all the other experts on here are saying.

not perplexing at all, at lest scanning the same output as the mentioned poster and reflected well on this evenings bbc forecasts. Am I on the wrong side of the event horizon here? All the odd comments of odd looking output? No, It's perfectly simple. Seriously guys!!!! do I need to call dial-a-ride?

[SnowObsessor90]

It seems the goalposts are being shifted once more in the MOD thread with early/mid Feb being the turning point, for all this "potential" we still don't appear to be getting any closer.