Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Bobby]

It's valuable information if the Met Office are concerned about  possible more flooding and storms considering the problems already in the likely affected areas, probably why it's got likes, I don't see why anyone would have issues with that?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

A few more candidates for the ignor button me thinks,can't believe people are liking comments from ian f talking about heavy rain and the potential for more flooding,really what's to like about that?

 

Gaz1985, Richie V I expect, cannot see posts anyway of theirs,

[Tony27]

my cat looks just like you

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Gaz1985, Richie V I expect, cannot see posts anyway of theirs,

lol.

Thats a bit harsh,they are good seasoned members.

Anyway,ECM out shortly,really hoping the 144 chart looks similar to UKMO 144 as the following charts will be interesting imo.

[LJS22]

I think some just do it to wind up those who want some cold and snow they wouldnt like it if there xmas was ruined by floods believe me

So its bad to have your lives disrupted by rain & floods but its OK to have your lives disrupted by snow & cold. I'd rather have a few puddles than dangerous ice thanks very much

[weather_it_will]

You can tell it's getting desperate in the model discussion thread when people start talking about strat warming and sunspots etc. 

[cheese]

So its bad to have your lives disrupted by rain & floods but its OK to have your lives disrupted by snow & cold. I'd rather have a few puddles than dangerous ice thanks very much

There's a difference between a few puddles and your house being ruined by filthy flood water. Neither heavy rain, strong winds or snow/ice are desired by the general populous, but snow has one advantage: it looks nice. Flood water doesn't look nice at all. Snow might delay my morning train, but it isn't going to damage my house, unless it's exceptionally heavy. Snow, for the most part, is usually an inconvenience, a pain in the backside for getting around, but that's about it. I would rather deal with snow canceling or delaying my plans than floodwater causing very expensive damage to my property.

Edited January 21, 2014 by cheese

[cheese]

^^ I saw that video on YouTube a few months ago for the first time. Quite possibly the most hilarious thing I have ever seen.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

So its bad to have your lives disrupted by rain & floods but its OK to have your lives disrupted by snow & cold. I'd rather have a few puddles than dangerous ice thanks very much

I think there is a huge difference between a few cm's of snow and a few degrees below freezing and storms rivers bursting banks flooding peoples homes and plunged into darkness for days mate

[LJS22]

There's a difference between a few puddles and your house being ruined by filthy flood water. Neither heavy rain, strong winds or snow/ice are desired by the general populous, but snow has one advantage: it looks nice. Flood water doesn't look nice at all. Snow might delay my morning train, but it isn't going to damage my house, unless it's exceptionally heavy.

Yeah that was a bit of a spur of the moment post for which i apolagise. I certainly wouldnt like to be flooded. My point is that different weather affects different livelyhoods and that seems to get forgotten a lot of the time in many posts on these forums. As long as the coldies get what they want nobody else matters but it also works the other way i imagine Edited January 21, 2014 by LJS22

[Chris K]

A few more candidates for the ignor button me thinks,can't believe people are liking comments from ian f talking about heavy rain and the potential for more flooding,really what's to like about that?

 

As one of those people, I just thought I would say (as others have pointed out already) that I am NOT liking it due to the fact we could have yet more potential flooding and copious amounts of rain.

 

I liked it because Ian (who no doubt is already busy enough) takes his spare time to post valuable information on this forum, which could even act as a pre-warning for areas potentially affected. This could allow them a little head start in making preparations just in case...

Edited January 21, 2014 by Chris K

[be cause]

anyway .. talking @ floods .. how may 1000's were flooded as the thaw set i n in 2010 ? Snow and ice are not all fun .. check the OAP fracture stats ...

[cheese]

anyway .. talking @ floods .. how may 1000's were flooded as the thaw set i n in 2010 ? Snow and ice are not all fun .. check the OAP fracture stats ...

Let's just agree that floods are not good at all, and rapid thaws are also no good (which is why it's better to have a long, cold winter and a gradual thaw, like in Scandinavia.. lol).

[SMU]

Well-

 

A poor ECM from 96 to the END.

 

That's 4/5 runs on the trott post 144 where the push west from the continent runs out of gas.

 

What does it take to get a decent ECM around here.

 

to much energy moving ESE- lets hope it doesn't verify .... at least we know the models have been far to progressive for the last week so we have that on our side-!

 

S

Edited January 21, 2014 by Steve Murr

[tight isobar]

Well- A poor ECM from 96 to the END. That's 4/5 runs on the trott post 144 where the push west from the continent runs out of gas. What does it take to get a decent ECM around here. to much energy moving ESE- lets hope it doesn't verify .... at least we know the models have been far to progressive for the last week so we have that on our side-! S

a very poor run from ECM, and has shocked me to the core tbh throughout.

[Mucka]

Well-

 

A poor ECM from 96 to the END.

 

That's 4/5 runs on the trott post 144 where the push west from the continent runs out of gas.

 

What does it take to get a decent ECM around here.

 

to much energy moving ESE- lets hope it doesn't verify .... at least we know the models have been far to progressive for the last week so we have that on our side-!

 

S

 

It won't. That is probably the worse progression possible from t96 (If it is possible, very dubious about how fast the high sinks SE 144/168)

[Frosty.]

Well-

 

A poor ECM from 96 to the END.

 

That's 4/5 runs on the trott post 144 where the push west from the continent runs out of gas.

 

What does it take to get a decent ECM around here.

 

to much energy moving ESE- lets hope it doesn't verify .... at least we know the models have been far to progressive for the last week so we have that on our side-!

 

S

This should probably be in the moans and ramps area, some will think it's good.

[Bobby]

a very poor run from ECM, and has shocked me to the core tbh throughout.

 

Shouldn't really be a shock, is consistent with the 00z mean at +240

 

Op:   Mean:

Edited January 21, 2014 by Bobby

[tight isobar]

Shouldn't really be a shock, is consistent with the 00z mean at +240

 

Op:   Mean:

my quote was actually reference to the model overall performance throughout this winter,(or constant autumn!)

[Bristawl Si]

So Winter 2013/14 looks set to continue it's stormy, wet and mild(ish) theme (imby anyway).

It's like a return to the 70s.

Models continue to throw in the odd curve ball colder tease but essentially that's it.

Still not seen a single snowflake this winter.

Did i say "winter"?!

[Tattooed Fox]

Never mind snow! if you have a look at charts for Sunday's into Monday's approaching storm on the "Atlantic Storm Thread", some people will be needing to take precautions yet again.  It looks very nasty indeed and Scotland and the SW are going to be in the firing line once again. The isobars are so tight that they just look like one big white blob.    

[Gord]

Not been on the forum for over a week for obvious reasons. However, the thing that has kept me informed and realistic this winter is a couple of people I follow on Twitter.

 

If you don't already (I'm sure most of you do), I recommend you follow Liam Dutton and Matthew Hugo.

 

Liam Dutton is brilliant at having a go at tweeting realistic outcomes while managing to share his weather preferences at the same time.

 

Matthew Hugo is talented at being able to explain what a chart means in laymans terms....all in one tweet.

 

Certainly kept me going this winter during this long, long wait.

 

You may not agree with me but no-one says you have to!

Edited January 21, 2014 by Gord

[JOPRO]

As one of those people, I just thought I would say (as others have pointed out already) that I am NOT liking it due to the fact we could have yet more potential flooding and copious amounts of rain. I liked it because Ian (who no doubt is already busy enough) takes his spare time to post valuable information on this forum, which could even act as a pre-warning for areas potentially affected. This could allow them a little head start in making preparations just in case...

Ok maybe we need another button, maybe a like the post but not the content lol. Calmed down a bit now, had to go and re do the sand bags in my garage for the thrid time in 2 months, hench my rant earlier.

[DAVID SNOW]

Moan:  John Hammond earlier on BBC weather loving the fact that temps would recover! And would be on the rise again: now with all the flooding problems of late why would he be happy,KNOWING  a  rise in temperature would indicate MORE  heavy rain coming in off the atlantic???????????

[conor123]

Was hoping for our first sub 5c day of the winter Thursday with some nice amplification increasing last minute and possible back edge wintriness, instead charts now spurting out subtle but major last minute downgrade's to ensure another drizzly flat zonal day with no chance of wintriness and the front blasting in Thursday Night after the glimmers of hope of it stalling out west giving a frosty chilly Friday on last night's runs.