Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Chess01]

Garbage of a winter

[Purga]

Where is Glacier Point this winter? His expertise re the models and all things weather really added to this thread.

I understand he now works for a large organisation where his considerable expertise is highly valued and utilised. Unfortunately he doesn'e have time now to offer us his invaluable insights - sorely missed but very good luck to him!

[ARNOTT ad]

I remember saying on here back in November that any potential good Synoptics need to happen when we see them!! (They didn't) and people use to say to me-be patient, winter hasn't started yet, ages yet etc.... Hmmm

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM mean/ensembles are really poor.GEFS are just as bad.

Unless the models flip in the next few days (pretty unlikely given the pattern) Jan is going to be a complete write off.

[warrenb]

Charts have gone zonal, an SSW is forecast (With a subtle hint from Snowballz a few days ago), so there is a chance that February could be cold. Winter will be winter and there is no need for despair as the previous couple of winters have shown, we do still get cold winters.

Edited January 15, 2014 by warrenb

[TEITS]

ECM mean/ensembles are really poor.GEFS are just as bad.

Unless the models flip in the next few days (pretty unlikely given the pattern) Jan is going to be a complete write off.

Rather premature to write the whole of Jan off just yet as +384 takes us to the 31st.

 

I always had a feeling the first attempt at an E,ly would fail. However the 2nd attempt would be more succesful and I shall stick with my instincts and suggest the last week of Jan is when winter will finally arrive. Im not expecting the period of W,lys to last very long before we see more trough disruption but this time successfully moving SE allowing colder NE/E,lys to arrive.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Rather premature to write the whole of Jan off just yet as +384 takes us to the 31st.

 

I always had a feeling the first attempt at an E,ly would fail. However the 2nd attempt would be more succesful and I shall stick with my instincts and suggest the last week of Jan is when winter will finally arrive. Im not expecting the period of W,lys to last very long before we see more trough disruption but this time successfully moving SE allowing colder NE/E,lys to arrive.

Going to have to disagree TEITS.

The pattern looks locked in to me-i'd love you to be right but i see absolutely no evidence to suggest you will be im afraid.We'll see...

Edited January 15, 2014 by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

[Frosty.]

Although the models look about as good as our ashes heroes to zeros cricket team, the met office outlook yesterday was encouraging for a combination of unsettled weather with temps a little below average which would at least bring a risk of wet snow at times.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Charts have gone zonal, an SSW is forecast (With a subtle hint from Snowballz a few days ago), so there is a chance that February could be cold. Winter will be winter and there is no need for despair as the previous couple of winters have shown, we do still get cold winters.

There is always a chance that February could be cold - but historically looking back at records there are very few years where a mild January has been followed by a cold February.  In the last century the only two I know of are 1969 and 1983.  To give us any chance of a getting a decent February we really need to see colder weather showing itself up before the end of January.

 

I was doing some research on past winter CETs, and noticed how rare it has been in recent years to see a January significantly colder than the previous December (a January CET 2*C or more colder than the previous December).  In the last 100 years this has happened on 24 occasions statistically, and happened on 25 occasions in the 1800s, and statistically happens up to around 25% of the time, but in the last 27 years, the only occasion that it has happened was in 2001 (Dec 2000 5.8, Jan 2001 3.2).

The key to it is that it has been so rare in recent years for a winter to turn cold after Christmas, whereby it happened fairly often statistically prior to 1988.  With a December CET in 2013 of 6.3, then even if January 2014 wasn't even anything like as cold as 2010, it could have been done this year.  Jan 2014 would have only needed a CET of 4.3 to achieve only the second statistical occurrence in 27 years of a January at least 2*C colder than the previous December, which happened statistically on 24 occasions in the last century, and hopes have now been dashed from that now.

 

Looking at February, it has been 2*C or more colder than the previous January on 13 occasions in the last 100 years (much less often than January being 2*C or more colder than the previous December), but the last occasion was in 1994 when Jan was 5.3 and Feb was 3.2.

 

So the chances of this winter being a write off and turning into a disaster are increasing day by day.

[mcweather]

Rather premature to write the whole of Jan off just yet as +384 takes us to the 31st.

 

I always had a feeling the first attempt at an E,ly would fail. However the 2nd attempt would be more succesful and I shall stick with my instincts and suggest the last week of Jan is when winter will finally arrive. Im not expecting the period of W,lys to last very long before we see more trough disruption but this time successfully moving SE allowing colder NE/E,lys to arrive.

 

I,m with you TEITS.

 

The longer the pattern is in this stalemate situation the more likely it seems to me that energy will start to dive SE. Especially with the increased amplification and retrogression hinted at by NOAA in their 10-14 day outlook a couple of nights back. The last week of Jan could well be the turning point in that process.

[mcweather]

There is always a chance that February could be cold - but historically looking back at records there are very few years where a mild January has been followed by a cold February.  In the last century the only two I know of are 1969 and 1983.  To give us any chance of a getting a decent February we really need to see colder weather showing itself up before the end of January.

 

I was doing some research on past winter CETs, and noticed how rare it has been in recent years to see a January significantly colder than the previous December (a January CET 2*C or more colder than the previous December).  In the last 100 years this has happened on 24 occasions statistically, and happened on 25 occasions in the 1800s, and statistically happens up to around 25% of the time, but in the last 27 years, the only occasion that it has happened was in 2001 (Dec 2000 5.8, Jan 2001 3.2).

The key to it is that it has been so rare in recent years for a winter to turn cold after Christmas, whereby it happened fairly often statistically prior to 1988.  With a December CET in 2013 of 6.3, then even if January 2014 wasn't even anything like as cold as 2010, it could have been done this year.  Jan 2014 would have only needed a CET of 4.3 to achieve only the second statistical occurrence in 27 years of a January at least 2*C colder than the previous December, which happened statistically on 24 occasions in the last century, and hopes have now been dashed from that now.

 

Looking at February, it has been 2*C or more colder than the previous January on 13 occasions in the last 100 years (much less often than January being 2*C or more colder than the previous December), but the last occasion was in 1994 when Jan was 5.3 and Feb was 3.2.

 

So the chances of this winter being a write off and turning into a disaster are increasing day by day.

 

The problem with looking at the CET for reference in writing off winter is that assumes that cold and snowy spells fit neatly into calendar month packages.

 

It would be quite possible to have the first two weeks of Jan mild or very mild then have the next four weeks cold and snowy and then a v mild last two weeks of feb, in that both instance both Jan and feb would show up as average on the CET despite a four week cold and snowy spell which would have been the talking point of the winter.

Edited January 15, 2014 by mcweather

[Purga]

There is always a chance that February could be cold - but historically looking back at records there are very few years where a mild January has been followed by a cold February.  In the last century the only two I know of are 1969 and 1983.  To give us any chance of a getting a decent February we really need to see colder weather showing itself up before the end of January.

 

I was doing some research on past winter CETs, and noticed how rare it has been in recent years to see a January significantly colder than the previous December (a January CET 2*C or more colder than the previous December).  In the last 100 years this has happened on 24 occasions statistically, and happened on 25 occasions in the 1800s, and statistically happens up to around 25% of the time, but in the last 27 years, the only occasion that it has happened was in 2001 (Dec 2000 5.8, Jan 2001 3.2).

The key to it is that it has been so rare in recent years for a winter to turn cold after Christmas, whereby it happened fairly often statistically prior to 1988.  With a December CET in 2013 of 6.3, then even if January 2014 wasn't even anything like as cold as 2010, it could have been done this year.  Jan 2014 would have only needed a CET of 4.3 to achieve only the second statistical occurrence in 27 years of a January at least 2*C colder than the previous December, which happened statistically on 24 occasions in the last century, and hopes have now been dashed from that now.

 

Looking at February, it has been 2*C or more colder than the previous January on 13 occasions in the last 100 years (much less often than January being 2*C or more colder than the previous December), but the last occasion was in 1994 when Jan was 5.3 and Feb was 3.2.

 

So the chances of this winter being a write off and turning into a disaster are increasing day by day.

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" - although you'll probably be right!

[swash]

Time for a week or so off from model watching I think, very frustrating winter this one.

 

I think I've jinxed it for everyone by putting winter tyres on my car for the first time ever, what a mistaka to maka.

[pip22]

Yes it is so frustrating. But we have to live with it. I'm getting a bit worried we never see any snow at this rate.  I bet this year's Summer will be just as disappointing as Winter no doubt. But still we have to live with it.

Edited January 15, 2014 by pip22

[Don]

Whilst I'm fairly confident that February will be the coldest month of Winter 2013/14 (wouldn't take much I know!) I can only see it being average to slightly below at the most, with any colder periods mainly restricted to the second half.  My reason being the current pattern unlikely change until we some get some real relief from the PV and that's probably not likely before February.  Until then much of the same, although trending slightly cooler and drier than we've had so far.  However, I don't expect to see any lying snow IMBY for at least a month if at all this Winter.  Needless to say I hope I'm wrong!

Edited January 15, 2014 by Don

[carinthian]

Flying into Gatwick this last Saturday and looking down on the Sussex bog land was a bit of a shock. It looked like a landscape of lakes. How much more rain can you poor sods endure ? Glad to get back to the parched snow free landscape of Salzburg.

Nothing worst than a soggy, sunless, snowless and frost free British winter. Sorry but it made me feel depressed.

C

[Richard2901]

The horror show just gets worse and worse. Yesterday I had to walk to work in rank 2C cold rain. Today I was blasted by drizzle and a vile S.E. wind and there's still barely any signs of it actually getting light due to the driving drizzle and gloom. Truly the worst winter weather anywhere on the planet. It's soul destroying 

 

Had a good snowfall on 19th Jan 1998 so non-winter 2013/14 will soon surpass that as the worst start to a winter I can remember. A desperately poor season. 13 hours below freezing in almost 6 weeks and can't even get the 2 day northerlies that were common in the 90s. It's not even as if there's been any real mild weather. None of the foehn effects that were common in the late 80s and 90s just a ridiculously narrow range of temperature and pathetically low diurnal ranges. One insipid day blending into another with nothing to differentiate. Nothing to go out and photograph. About the most pitifully boring and uninteresting season I've experienced

[skifreak]

Looking at February, it has been 2*C or more colder than the previous January on 13 occasions in the last 100 years (much less often than January being 2*C or more colder than the previous December), but the last occasion was in 1994 when Jan was 5.3 and Feb was 3.2.

That's very interesting because this winter to date in Highland Scotland has strong similarities to the stormy but quite cool zonal winter of 1994, that brought huge amounts of snow to Scotland's Snowsport Areas - particularly the West but also in the East as the season progressed. There were only 4 milder Decembers on record in Scotland than Dec 2013, yet no-one can remember Glencoe having so much snow by the end of December and it's fairly exceptional for mid January just now.There was also quite a bit of reference to the recent North America severe cold spell being the most potent since January 1994. If the rest of this winter follows a similar pattern to 1994 with gradually less wind / severe storms, but bucket loads more snow, I'll take it - even with see little more than a few dustings if that at sea level!

[Coast]

It looked like a landscape of lakes. How much more rain can you poor sods endure ? 

 

Not much more, several roads in West Sussex are flooding due to the overspill from sodden fields. No dry period likely on the current model runs so not much respite there.

[carinthian]

Not much more, several roads in West Sussex are flooding due to the overspill from sodden fields. No dry period likely on the current model runs so not much respite there.

Sorry to here. Was very much the case in my short observation. You guys need a rest bite from the deluges .

[shedhead]

The horror show just gets worse and worse. Yesterday I had to walk to work in rank 2C cold rain. Today I was blasted by drizzle and a vile S.E. wind and there's still barely any signs of it actually getting light due to the driving drizzle and gloom. Truly the worst winter weather anywhere on the planet. It's soul destroying 

 

Had a good snowfall on 19th Jan 1998 so non-winter 2013/14 will soon surpass that as the worst start to a winter I can remember. A desperately poor season. 13 hours below freezing in almost 6 weeks and can't even get the 2 day northerlies that were common in the 90s. It's not even as if there's been any real mild weather. None of the foehn effects that were common in the late 80s and 90s just a ridiculously narrow range of temperature and pathetically low diurnal ranges. One insipid day blending into another with nothing to differentiate. Nothing to go out and photograph. About the most pitifully boring and uninteresting season I've experienced

Top quality ranting....

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Sorry to here. Was very much the case in my short observation. You guys need a rest bite from the deluges .

Very much so.Cant see one forthcoming though C,it really is becoming very depressing.

[DAVID SNOW]

Sorry to here. Was very much the case in my short observation. You guys need a rest bite from the deluges .

Hello c: What happened to our snow that your weather guys were forecasting not so long ago?

[cobbett]

Ironic that last week it was all about how about interesting the models were/ knife edge stuff/ Snow predictions by area being made / me looking at snow chains etc and we just end up with this depressing muck. Always likely to happen I suppose whenever an easterly is progged

[carinthian]

Hello c: What happened to our snow that your weather guys were forecasting not so long ago?

 

It failed David. We predicted the cold over Scandinavia, which developed and held. The European trough and low circulation  which we were confident of in our progs do not take shape. UKMO well played they were never wholly convinced. At times GFS AND ECM were thinking that way but have backed away as you know. Bad loss for UK snow and Lowland Europe. Still things can turn around again. I hope so ,for the sake of the many UK cold lovers on this site. For me, I will always get snow at 1600m,thats why I am here, its my holy grail.

 C