Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[stainesbloke]

Not an outlook, but this was a great event nationwide :

Remember that event well! Was -10C in the morning before the heavy snow swept in. That spell lasted a week with a few further snowfalls, then literally all melted overnight with the return of v mild air.

[Rose]

I'm living in hope for February, my birthday month & I do often get the best present for me, snow!  I won't be writng Feb off, it's too far ahead to say otherwise I reckon! Things change on a sixpence...........

[Blizzardof82]

Not an outlook, but this was a great event nationwide : http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Hd6DuebHliY

The start of that forecast showing record high temps in North America as well, really think our best chance of the white stuff in Bristol this winter will come from north/northwest and not the east.

[Dancerwithwings]

Even in the midlands we had heavy snow and minima of -10 even under cloud cover, Just a few charts from back then,

 

 

 

 

And this low came up from France and stayed more or less over us for around 3 days

 

 

[Weather-history]

Not an outlook, but this was a great event nationwide :

That was the last time we had a February CET that was sub 2CAfter January and December 2010, March 2013, it is surely only a matter of time we get a notably cold February?

[Frank Trough]

Not an outlook, but this was a great event nationwide : http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Hd6DuebHliY

 

it didn't deliver much snow on the Isle of wight. Perishingly cold it certainly was but the snow was restricted to a few showers until the end of the week when the advancing Atlantic gave a spell of snow which melted in the afternoon. I remember seeing the weather forecasts and getting up to do my paper round expecting to see snow....

 

Mind you, we're going back a bit - maybe my memory is wrong.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

models 12Z's seem wrong way round, GFS puts in a one off bad run, ECMWF tonight more realistic, I am a GFS believer but I think 12Z is wrong

[Purga]

Tonight's run seems to suggest what NOAA talked about last night.

 

THIS SUGGESTS A

SUBSTANTIAL SUBSEASONAL CLIMATE EVENT IS FORECAST TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CONUS

 

ECH0-240.gif

Likely outlook for Canada

 

Likely outlook for the UK

 

 

Unless the Scandi pumps iron !

[TSNWK]

ECM has on at least 3 occasions offered lovely winter options going against UKMO and GFS, on each occasion it was dragged back into line.. Tonight MR ECM is the least appealing to coldies, and will be right! How do I know this.... It be the law of the sod..

[Nigerian Prince]

When the hell is winter going to arrive and kill the bees and wasps  that are flying around, stinging people, it`s like we are in an extended autumn that last forever.(location Battersea ,London Gender Male.)

[conor123]

Very bland few days ahead, charts once again backing off cold weather this morning, showing cold potentially through the afternoon and now backing off ahead, all in all the the outlook as far as can be forecasted still remains the same, snoozefest yellow upper's and 7-10c days with any exciting charts being squashed back to more yellow upper's drizzly muck on the following run 

[Peter H]

c

When the hell is winter going to arrive and kill the bees and wasps  that are flying around, stinging people, it`s like we are in an extended autumn that last forever.(location Battersea ,London Gender Male.)

 

On a slightly more positive note, Katesbridge got down to -6 last night and there was a widespread frost here which lasted most of the morning.

All gone by lunchtime though, but they are confidently predicting colder weather of sorts by the weekend again after a very mild morning tomorrow.

Still, nothing really severe in the way of cold on the horizon.

The really cold weather does seem tantalizingly close, which is very frustrating.

 

Edited January 15, 2014 by Peter H

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not like GFS to put in a dodgy run, did on 12Z yesterday, but as expected GFS handled this pattern the best, we are now looking 2nd week of Feb for any snow chances in the south, and then still have rest of Feb, march and april

 

north have rest of Jan through to early May especially high levels

[Tim Bland]

By the end of Feb the sun is getting stronger and snow can melt really quickly. Last march was a 1 in 100 year event. It's possible tht some low lying southern areas won't see any proper snow this winter. It's happened in the past

[Bristawl Si]

 

Not like GFS to put in a dodgy run, did on 12Z yesterday, but as expected GFS handled this pattern the best, we are now looking 2nd week of Feb for any snow chances in the south, and then still have rest of Feb, march and april north have rest of Jan through to early May especially high levels

As alluded to yesterday on here (by me and a couple of other posters) once Feb is over that's *normally* 'it' for the South.Model cold 'scraps' seem to get pushed out further day after day; it's always T192 or T240 where there's 'potential'.Seen a few 'scraps' in the Strat thread being dangled but i've been seeing those for a couple of weeks now as well.Law of weather averages says the UK is due a mild one (and yes, all the way through). 

By the end of Feb the sun is getting stronger and snow can melt really quickly. Last march was a 1 in 100 year event. It's possible tht some low lying southern areas won't see any proper snow this winter. It's happened in the past

Too true. Edited January 15, 2014 by Bristle boy

[chiller]

Oh dear! You know it's bad when you log in first thing and see the model moans thread is the top of the list! A common theme this winter I don't think this winter is going to deliver (no insights or learned meteorological backup to support that just a gut feeling). Like the bad old days of the late 90s or early naughties. Hope late winter can deliver...

Ps I hate iPhones! Autocorrect ahhhh

Edited January 15, 2014 by chiller

[snowbob]

Come on peeps

It could all change in a matter of 6 hours

Every run is a new chance IMO

You just have to look at how much has changed this week.

On the plus side every run brings us a few hours closer to feb.

It will come just can't say when.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

What an abomination of a a winter!

Sick of rain,sick of wind,sick of slate grey skies,and sick of waking up every morning to zonal dross on the NWP.

Fast approaching write off time for January now im afraid,this pattern is seriously locked in,the low heights that have been there across Greenland show no sign of abaiting,the meto long ranger is guff out to the 1st week of Feb and to cap it all i saw what was either a bee or a wasp yesterday! Whats that all about??????

Hats off to those keeping the flame lit in the model output thread but one does get the feeling its just not going to happen.

If i were a betting man i'd stake a fortune on those blues and purples over Greenland being replaced with yellows and oranges come march/april.That might be enough to bring snow but for me its just adds to the frustration because by that time the sun will be much stronger and higher in the sky and the sound of 'drip drip drip wont be from the relentless wind and rain it will be the sound of any snow melting.

Its up there with 88/89 for cackness and probably on reflection worse due to the ammount of rain.

Rant over...

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is the report on this morning's output of the NWP for today Wednesday January 15th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show Low pressure over the Atlantic gradually drifting in closer to the UK over the next day or two. As a result today's mild and damp conditions will change to somewhat cooler and more showery conditions from the West from later today. The showers will be heavy in places and focused most on the South and west of the UK with some Northern and Eastern areas seeing a fair amount of dry weather. By Saturday Low pressure remains close to the West of the UK with a new frontal feature moving NNE across the UK with further heavy rain likely over England and parts of Wales with Sunday too seeing further unsettled weather for all in light winds and temperatures near to or just a little below average as Low pressure fills and slides SE.

 

GFS then shows new Low pressure areas crossing East to the North of the UK through next week, each dragging troughs East across Britain continuing to bring rain and showers at times in basically Westerly winds with temperatures quite close to the seasonal average.

 

The GFS Ensembles show little evidence of any significant change in the unsettled pattern this morning under temperatures largely close to average. There may be some cooler and blustery intervals in showery NW winds but no substantial cold events look likely.

 

UKMO shows a weak ridge across the UK with the UK itself in a 'col' type situation where almost anything goes but the most likely event will see a rather cold and dry interlude with a night frost but a dry bright day perhaps with a shower, wintry on hills.

 

GEM shows the unsettled weather giving way from the North to a colder Easterly flow next week with some wintry showers in the East and South with frost developing at night especially in the clearer North.

 

NAVGEM shows Low pressure up to the NW of the UK by midweek with a broad Westerly flow. The unsettled weather of early in the week will be superseded by the effects of fresher Atlantic winds and further rain bearing troughs crossing East over all areas as Low pressure maintains the upper hand as far as the UK is concerned.

 

ECM this morning keeps very unsettled weather going with deep Low pressure areas continuing to affect all areas of the UK throughout the week with spells of rain, heavy at times accompanied by strong Westerly winds at times too. On the plus side temperatures do not look like being far from the January average.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts today show a bias favouring a trough down the North Sea connected to Low pressure most likely towards the NW of the UK. This as of the last few outputs closes the door on any cold from the East and most likely maintains the unsettled theme across the UK with rain at times in average temperatures and Westerly winds.

 

The Jet Stream continues to blow across the Atlantic, turning Southeast to the South of the UK and then over Southern Europe. This pattern is maintained into the start of next week. Later next week the flow looks like strengthening again and piling East across the Atlantic and across the UK.

 

In Summary the weather remains very unsettled over the next two weeks with Low pressure never straying far from the UK shores throughout the period. The thrust of energy from these Lows is SE'wards for the next 5-6 days before the thrust then looks more East to the North of Scotland next week with an increase of Westerly winds likely at times, giving rise to somewhat more mobility allowing systems to pass through more quickly with time though still with only short drier spells in between. There is nothing again to suggest any change to colder conditions of note anytime soon from this morning's output with the glimmer of hope from the GEM operational looking the only straw to clutch this morning.

[snow freak]

would prefer even a Bartlett to the current patterns we have. 

[Rose]

What an abomination of a a winter!

Sick of rain,sick of wind,sick of slate grey skies,and sick of waking up every morning to zonal dross on the NWP.

Fast approaching write off time for January now im afraid,this pattern is seriously locked in,the low heights that have been there across Greenland show no sign of abaiting,the meto long ranger is guff out to the 1st week of Feb and to cap it all i saw what was either a bee or a wasp yesterday! Whats that all about??????

Hats off to those keeping the flame lit in the model output thread but one does get the feeling its just not going to happen.

If i were a betting man i'd stake a fortune on those blues and purples over Greenland being replaced with yellows and oranges come march/april.That might be enough to bring snow but for me its just adds to the frustration because by that time the sun will be much stronger and higher in the sky and the sound of 'drip drip drip wont be from the relentless wind and rain it will be the sound of any snow melting.

Its up there with 88/89 for cackness and probably on reflection worse due to the ammount of rain.

Rant over...

I couldn't agree with you more!  I really am at the end of my tether, the leaden skies really do weigh me down, especially driving to work (where i'm hoping not to have to go to when a major snow event occurs) And I'm sick of people saying " well, it could be worse, it could be snowing"  or " I don't want it to snow i've got to go & see uncle Fred this Saturday"  Blah, blah ......... How could this weather we are having be worse!  Maybe it's that some of us are more affected by grey skies than others but snow & frost aren't just beautiful to look at, it's exciting to have the change. As for stray wasps & bees...........

I love to walk at the weekends when I can but even I don't want to go out in this, it's so depressing. I am still hopeful for Feb & I don't think you have to worry about the drip drip ( I hate that sound too)  in Feb too much. Chin up now , watch & wait....

[Chris K]

I hope we are not still saying patience is required when we get into february, that would be too much to stomach.

 

Indeed to me I think this will be one of those winters remembered by many for it's flooding...for now.

 

It has been a long winter if you are a coldie on this forum - it certainly feels like we have gone way past the halfway mark. However we do still have 1.5 months of winter left.

 

I must admit though..the models this morning are not filling me with joy seeing an unsettled Atlantic dominated pattern POTENTIALLY setting back up. Difference is, that this time it looks to be more a westerly/ North-westerly driven pattern rather than W/SW - Not the first time that has been mentioned as a possibility and could still bring snow for higher ground and areas further North in particular.

 

I think we need to wait and see what early Feb brings - if a possible SSW does occur, it will then be a waiting game as to whether it will affect our small part of the world in our favour.

 

Not 'writing' anything off, but unsettled an

[snow freak]

so much for the 'dry' December and January forecast by many earlier in the season...and where is the substantial cold that was supposed to kick in around the middle of January going into February.  I have come to the conclusion that forecasting is a lottery and no one can predict the weather a week in advance let alone a whole season.  Why do they bother?  I'm sticking to my pine cone.  Far more reliable.  This winter so far is turning out to be one of the worst i have seen for many years.  Absolutely rubbish.

[Roadrunner]

Where is Glacier Point this winter? His expertise re the models and all things weather really added to this thread.

[Summer Sun]

Where is Glacier Point this winter? His expertise re the models and all things weather really added to this thread.

 

He's left, got a job else where which prevents him from posting here

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76241-this-is-the-end/

Edited January 15, 2014 by Summer Sun