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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted

reminds me a bit of CFS and james madden, hopeless model,

 

ECM is consistently the worlds most accurate weather model overall, it does get a bit carried away with easterlies at times though.

 

Is comfortably in 1st place over the past month, UKMO in 2nd place and GFS in 3rd with GEM not far behind it in 4th.

 

Posted Image

(accuracy at +144)

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Must be an old chart Bobby ECM is now in 2nd place.

I said earlier ECM couldn't tease very well and it needed some really cold uppers. Well it's listened and it's teased. Pity it won't happen like that but what the heck.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

In need its like the mother in law the threat is always there. Eventually she will turn up and then no doubt stay for 10 days.

How true is that, Just the thought of that make me shiver.lol!

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Mmmm, I think before we get excited we need to see if the GFS edges towards the ECM this evening, and wait for the mornings runs. Maybe after those if ECM gets support we're on for another exciting day or two on this forum.

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

well, lets see if the 18z GFS can send us the 'Beast from the East' and defeat the Wicked Witch of the West......

 

Posted Image

 

i'm melting, i'm melting!!!

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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted (edited)

In need its like the mother in law the threat is always there. Eventually she will turn up and then no doubt stay for 10 days.

 Hello Stew: this has been going on for months now but when you say "in need" do you have a dodgy keyboard? And it should read "indeed"Posted Image

Edited by DAVID SNOW
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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

Well, as regard the ECM run tonight who really will get taken in?

 

 

LOL Posted Image

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-(

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted

I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-(

OMG Frosty don't do it! Stick with it a few more days,  it wouldn't be the same in here without your enthusiasm in the face of much adversity.

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The Post-modern Winter Enthusiast

The Post-modern Winter

Posted
  • Location: Clwydian Hills 210/300 Metres ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Clwydian Hills 210/300 Metres ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted

I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-(

 

Right, own up. Who told emotional rollercoaster Frosty's password?

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OldMetMan Rising Star

OldMetMan

Posted
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-(

Cheer up, we're not even half-way through January yet!

 

As I am always saying, blocking to the NE can sometimes develop very quickly and catch the models out. Keep watching and you may be pleasantly surprised!

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jam Contributor

jam

Posted
  • Location: Crookes Sheffield (223m. asl)
  • Location: Crookes Sheffield (223m. asl)
Posted

Get a grip man and post some unlikely, far reaching FI charts to keep us all hoping! We dont need to be in winter to get winter :-)

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)

I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-(

Just can not believe you of all people would throw the towel in, Come on keep it together son..... Just when things are looking upPosted Image

Looking at the above should give you some encouragementPosted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Dibdabbers Apprentice

Dibdabbers

Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: snow!!!!
  • Location: Stourbridge, West Midlands
Posted

I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-(

Nooooooooooooooooooooo..I love your optimistic posts
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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted

I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-(

 

Mate, don't do it. You're one of the hardy bunch who's here all year round. Remember that Summer didn't get going until mid-July onwards this year. 47 got going in Feb. Stay in the game.

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The Post-modern Winter Enthusiast

The Post-modern Winter

Posted
  • Location: Clwydian Hills 210/300 Metres ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Clwydian Hills 210/300 Metres ASL
Posted

In all seriousness though Frosty and echoing the thoughts of many in here, please continue posting in the same positive manner that you do. I genuinely imagine you look like this Posted Image in real life (or Roadrunner actually), so don't ruin a main part of my Netweather world. Hope to see you posting some positive charts in the morning!

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JOPRO Contributor

JOPRO

Posted
  • Location: West Northants
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Winters, Warm Summers.
  • Location: West Northants
Posted

I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-(

Wouldn't read to much into the met outlook. Still waiting for my BBQ summer! Does anyone need any charcoal got a shed load thanks to that oulook, stacked next to all the salt I brought after reading maddens winter forcast back in October.....
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NickR Community Regular

NickR

Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
Posted

More to the point, Frosty, as 2013 showed, 28 February isn't a cut-off point beyond which there can be no snow and cold!

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-(

Agree with the other guys/ladies, please don't throw ya towel away yet dude. You have a lot of great people here on the thread who value what you put (just look at all those supportive replies you've had for instance :)). Like others, I enjoy reading your posts and the way you submerge them with excitement and delight. But I know how you feel with the way the weather has unfolded for the snow fans so far this Winter, and how it feels as though the white stuff just doesn't want to get any closer. I suppose it's a good thing the wintry fans have got a few months worth of snowfall chances yet - one of the wintry FI outlooks will have to materialise one day. But fear not, the snow will come I'm sure [after all, it can't hide from our island forever ;-)]. Keep your heart and chin held up high, and take no notice of the GFS's drama-stirring outputs. It's probably just out trying to cause trouble! (could just be that case that it's trying to bring back the flat(ish) Westerly flow too eagerly - even though it's probably in response of the Polar Virtex wanting to break back in from the West/North-West. But even this could be overdone). And who knows, despite the numerous failed Easterlies in the past, maybe the ECMWF really could be correct with it's Easterly idea. Even if it's not, other developments with regards to cold and snow could easily arise, and maybe a nice, big, juicy Northerly could arise should a chunk of the Polar Vortex migrate towards Siberia or something. So please Winter, and please models (yes GFS, that includes you too) give the UK snow fans a snowfall soon. It might seem greedy (and I appreciate not everyone likes the icy stuff) but do it for me, for Frosty and for the other snow weather fans, who would probably even be willing to sell their Nan's on Ebay, to see a white thing fall from the sky. :) ;-)
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Huge downgrade from ecm this morning and as expected drops in line with gfs.Next!!!!!Posted Image

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Tuxedo Rookie

Tuxedo

Posted
  • Location: bath
  • Weather Preferences: Anything under4 deg. In winter and anything over 20deg in the summer!
  • Location: bath
Posted

If Frosty is throwing in the towel we may as well all go home!... Worse than any 'flipping' chart!

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Chess01 Apprentice

Chess01

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
Posted

I just want winter to be over now. Even as a cold lover the search for cold seems none existent and I don't think we can shift these obstacles that are destroying our winter. Think it's better when winter is over and we can have a pattern reset ready for next winter

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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted

I just want winter to be over now. Even as a cold lover the search for cold seems none existent and I don't think we can shift these obstacles that are destroying our winter. Think it's better when winter is over and we can have a pattern reset ready for next winter

 

Certainly a horror show up to now hasnt it, still think 2010 is in our minds which is what we all want, autumn turning into a hard cold winter Canada style. Unfortunatley our winters generally have the best chance of giving us snow in the later period February/March due to the PV weakening allowing blocks to form. Of course its not always like that as we have seen in the past, but i wouldnt be fed up because we havnt had a '63. Most winters are reletively snowless up to now, its just that we have had a a severe stormy period that we are all sick of. keep the faith :)  

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