Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[ANYWEATHER]

Corrected your post for more likely than not accuracy purposes. Seriously though.....this "winter" becomes more of a busted flush by the day...and no nice chart at t+384 is gonna make me think any different....nor any wishful thinking....sorry.

Why on Earth did you correct my post , and my thoughts for late Winter for January are still there

[damianslaw]

I've refrained from posting in here so far this winter, but with nearly 6 weeks gone.. the thought of 'can we start it again this one isn't working.. springs to mind'.

 

I'm already confident next winter will see a far more palatable start than how this winter has opened out - it really has been poor for cold snow lovers, and awful for anyone who has been affected by the wind and rain..

 

on a positive note we still have a good 2 months left, and the second half of winter traditionally is more likely to deliver quieter settled conditions and more in the way of cold frosty snowy conditions.

[ANYWEATHER]

Corrected your post for more likely than not accuracy purposes. Seriously though.....this "winter" becomes more of a busted flush by the day...and no nice chart at t+384 is gonna make me think any different....nor any wishful thinking....sorry.

I drove through 15ft snow drifts in the Beautiful Elan Valley last  March/early April in Mid Wales....in 2013

Edited January 10, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[kumquat]

The best part about the mass model madness faux pas so far was the drawing out of the TEITS

[stainesbloke]

"Yes considering people said to expect a lot of flip flopping from the model's since the downgrades of yesterday,all I have seen is Flop Flopping !!.What's even worse is I fell into the old trap of believing the model's and whilst chatting to our dear old neighbour Pat about the weather,I felt it was only wright to warn her of the oncoming Easterly onslaught of the coming week.I had forgot all about it until this afternoon when I saw her from my window,waving her newly aquired snow shovel at me and then proceeded to unload about a half a tonne of rock salt from her boot!!..It will be a while before I go around there for a cup of sugar!"From mod chat..absolutely lovin' it and funniest post for a wee while. LOL!

Very good! Thanks for posting

[stainesbloke]

Hehe, like another comment on that about 'pumping out her cellar' poss being a euphemism. Sick!

[2810lollypop]

"Yes considering people said to expect a lot of flip flopping from the model's since the downgrades of yesterday,all I have seen is Flop Flopping !!.What's even worse is I fell into the old trap of believing the model's and whilst chatting to our dear old neighbour Pat about the weather,I felt it was only wright to warn her of the oncoming Easterly onslaught of the coming week.I had forgot all about it until this afternoon when I saw her from my window,waving her newly aquired snow shovel at me and then proceeded to unload about a half a tonne of rock salt from her boot!!..It will be a while before I go around there for a cup of sugar!"From mod chat..absolutely lovin' it and funniest post for a wee while. LOL!

lol I did the same , feel like an absolute plank now ! Think I might just have to go on me jollys ! The shame !

[Peter H]

It's all gone a bit pear shaped now.

No cold spell next week.

January looks as if it's pretty much done and dusted

[SLEETY]

It's all gone a bit pear shaped now.

No cold spell next week.

January looks as if it's pretty much done and dusted

 

Well that takes us to the 17th of Jan,so how is that the whole of Jan done and dusted.

 

And thats of course if the charts verify as shown in a weeks time.

 

If the models have got it wrong and backtrack over the weekend,a lot of people in this thread are going to have egg on their faces

 

Considering the amonut of faffing about the models have done this week then I wouldn't bet against it happening.

Edited January 11, 2014 by SLEETY

[Bristawl Si]

Winter Part 2 will commence in the final third of January.

[The PIT]

Another load of rubbish. Not even a decent storm in the mix.

[tinybill]

well looking at the models  this morning not going to help the people you are trying to dry  out there houses  ,spells of rain ,with a few dry spells ,  with NO  SNOW  !!

[Winter2009]

No tech info to back this up but like the quality 3 weeks we had last summer, I feel that we will get 3 decent cold and snowy weeks very late Jan into Feb. it may even take 3 bites of the cherry, comes in 3's!!!

[UV-RAY]

Nothing in the model output this morning convinces me that a cold spell is imminent  anytime soon, in fact I would say we have every chance of the Azores High dictating our weather pattern for the rest of this month at least. Hopefully not but I stand by my comments yesterday of a few days of cold at best is the best we can hope for the remainder of this winter, bar any favourable synoptics developing if we see a SSW.

[Chris K]

Nothing in the model output this morning convinces me that a cold spell is imminent anytime soon, in fact I would say we have every chance of the Azores High dictating our weather pattern for the rest of this month at least. Hopefully not but I stand by my comments yesterday of a few days of cold at best is the best we can hope for the remainder of this winter, bar any favourable synoptics developing if we see a SSW.

Yes with that Azores high modelled back where it is...it all feels too much like 'back to square one' to me, where last time we ended up with the sceuro high for a while before that stormy period took hold...Not saying that will happen again as there is high uncertainty at the moment and differences in the jet profile. A real test of patience this winter. Edited January 11, 2014 by Chris K

[cobbett]

Sunspot activity too high this winter, so just feel it ain't going to be a good year for anything wintery in the  UK or indeed Europe as a whole

[Gord]

Oh dear, for us who like a bit of cold and snow in the winter, we are really at a low point right now. It's not new territory for us though. We still have lots of time this winter but it is getting more and more frustrating.

 

For those who have only started dabbling in weather forums since 2009...this is what they were like before then!

 

Edit: Eerie, literally just as I pressed submit for this post...a promotional leaflet for a local event came through the door with the headline:

 

"With the festivities behind us...it's now time to look forward to warmer weather!"

 

Yeah...right.

Edited January 11, 2014 by Gord

[Chris K]

Sunspot activity too high this winter, so just feel it ain't going to be a good year for anything wintery in the  UK or indeed Europe as a whole

It is interesting that the run of cold, snowy winters occurs during/soon after the low solar activity. Research into this area of science must be fascinating in how solar activity affects our weather. I know its not that simple, but I dare not speculate what might happen for the next couple winters as it would be foolhardy and I would probably lose my sanity.

[AWD]

BAN tweets from the MOD thread!!!!

Vote Now!

[cheese]

Ah, there we go, the snow is moving south now. Still, only six of Europe's capitals have snow (which, I suspect, is probably normal).

 

Edited January 11, 2014 by cheese

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Ah, there we go, the snow is moving south now. Still, only six of Europe's capitals have snow (which, I suspect, is probably normal).

 

No! That is NOT a normal snow distribution in mid Jan,even countries like Poland/Belarus and Ukraine are pretty much snowless,thats shocking it really is and highlights perfectly what an absolute guff-fest its been,largely thanks to that euroslug...

[Bobby]

I think this CS Lewis quote could well apply to model watching...

 

If you look for truth, you may find comfort in the end; if you look for comfort you will not get either comfort or truth - only soft soap and wishful thinking to begin with, and in the end, despair.

[The PIT]

I now thinking of a possible snow free winter here. I'll look at the ECM later but pretty sure that won't have any salvation.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Winter Part 2 will commence in the final third of January.

 

Eh? When was part 1? All we've had so far is autumnal rubbish. Certainly had no weather that resembles winter whatsoever.

[Peter H]

What's the reckoning we'll get the perfect Winter set-up, for snow etc., in July!

By which stage we'll be in a heat wave situation, hopefully.I know the end of the month is still a few weeks away, but it's not looking good for January.Nothing remotely cold on the horizon according to the latest models.January 2010 has been the best we've had in recent years.This one just sucks from a weather point of view.Weather online changed their weekly forecast from "turning cold and wintry" to "mostly mild" in 24hrs, so that pretty much sums this month up.