Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[R.P. McMurphy]

funny ..my prediction for this winter was 3 months of extra autumn ...  

Well you're 1/3 and a half the way there !

 

So does Winter start in March/April?

[MPG]

Latest from Ian Fergusson;"Colder spell next week nothing unusual for Jan, stress @metoffice. More pronounced to NE. Snow for various areas possible; ditto rain in S. The Express hyperbole well over-the-top, unsurprisingly. Yes, a different mode of winter weather but hardly anything exceptional."

Thats good. It will stop all the ridiculous posts in the MOT later when normal winter charts are shown again. Cold in the north, cool in the south.

[Gaz1985]

Looks like I was right last night to be cautious about the "beasterly" whilst others were typically OTT........ still having said that things may suddenly flip back but for coldies alarm bells might be ringing after Ian F said this will be only a bog standard cold spell nothing unusual for Jan. And then a suggestion of a more mobile outlook probably into Feb, who knows we may go all Winter without a flake settling here, not even a sugar dusting. I don't recall a time when that's happened before.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Gaz1985

[snow freak]

maybe the last 5 winters were the cold phase and now we are entering a string of mild winters like it was in the late 1990's?  God i hope not.  They were so depressing.

[snow freak]

surely even if we did end up with an easterly, the continent is unusually warm and even Russia and Poland are seeing temperatures well above average for this time of year.  Taking this into account even an easterly won't provide us with real cold...will it?

[Norway Nut]

I'm glad I don't live in the UK and have to suffer the will it /won't it snow/get cold emotional rollercoaster that passes for model watching. Even though I'm on the coast of Norway, I should still get temps around -5 or even -8 C. Shame about the lack of white stuff but hey, you can't have everything!

[stainesbloke]

maybe the last 5 winters were the cold phase and now we are entering a string of mild winters like it was in the late 1990's?  God i hope not.  They were so depressing.

Who knows. Though even in the colder winters of the 80s-early 90s we didn't get significant cold and snow every year. It was more like every 3 years.

[MR EXTREMES]

dreadful absolutely dreadful we really are not getting nowhere this winter grrrrrrrr

[conor123]

:lol: this winter has turned into one pathetic joke, a true 0/10 winter so far as these storms have been of no interest when you live in the rain shadow, weather shadow, weatherless county of Shropshire.

[SnowObsessor90]

If this bite of cherry ends up failing which the odds have started to lean more towards then I'm going to give this winter one more chance to redeem itself, if by late Jan/Early Feb there is still nothing whatever showing models then I'm probably throw the towel in, yes even then there's still March as we saw last year but back then  the building blocks were already there already there way before hand with Atlantic not always having it's own way.

Edited January 9, 2014 by SnowObsessor90

[Gord]

Um...well...I'm completely confused with model watching today. Not sure what to expect. Probably the best approach to be honest!

 

There is one thing that the models cannot take away...

 

...and that is that it's nearly the weekend! So there...happy either way!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

perhaps models are modelling the easterly too early, all models show continental air later next week but no snow but no real easterly as its only mid Jan, Easterlies too rare before late Jan. Late Jan and Feb hopefully game on

[Tony27]

so jan is too early for an easterly and march is too late for one? so we only have feb that can deliver a decent easterly, i can't ever recall seeing a good dumping of snow here from a convective easterly in my life and im 27, the snow i get is usually from an atlantic front bumping into the cold air, so i shouldn't be surprised when the models downgrade nearly every single easterly really but i still feel disappointed, there is still time for upgrades and it is only January still but im not the most optimistic of people

[I remember Atlantic 252]

so jan is too early for an easterly and march is too late for one? so we only have feb that can deliver a decent easterly, i can't ever recall seeing a good dumping of snow here from a convective easterly in my life and im 27, the snow i get is usually from an atlantic front bumping into the cold air, so i shouldn't be surprised when the models downgrade nearly every single easterly really but i still feel disappointed, there is still time for upgrades and it is only January still but im not the most optimistic of people

 

March too late? no way, more likely than Feb, Apr more likely still, but not as snowy as air getting warmer by mid Apr

[stainesbloke]

March too late? no way, more likely than Feb, Apr more likely still, but not as snowy as air getting warmer by mid Apr

More likely if you live on a hill or mountain up north maybe. Not really so for down South. Did snow here one Easter but was gone by lunchtime. Other than that, I can't remember it snowing here to any great extent past Feb.

[Bristawl Si]

More likely if you live on a hill or mountain up north maybe. Not really so for down South. Did snow here one Easter but was gone by lunchtime. Other than that, I can't remember it snowing here to any great extent past Feb.

Agreed.i've seen the odd snowfall in March, and i think 87 and 79 were quite wintry in March. But that's about it really.Yet again some people seem to be focussing on the v recent past to form a view on a particular month's wintry weather prospects. March 2013 was v rare for that particular week of severity and the snow up North and N Midlands.

[Summer Sun]

Matt Hugo's take on things tonight

 

It was not a sure thing, but yet another step away from an E'ly (easterly) now for next week given 12Z data, chilly next week, but far from unusual.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Summer Sun

[UV-RAY]

Matt Hugo's take on things tonight It was not a sure thing, but yet another step away from an E'ly (easterly) now for next week given 12Z data, chilly next week, but far from unusual.

I don't think I need to wait for weekend to call it the way. I see it. For next week for the majority will see more rain with temps close to average any colder incursions will be confined to the far NE, thereafter who knows bit I've a feeling that the Atlantic will still be dominating proceedings for the next few weeks.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hoping for a spell like winter '11-'12, winter arrived around 30th January, very cold early Feb, snow on 4th around 8cms, could well happen again, often do not need a full blown E'ly for decent snow

 

would prefer not to have a winter like 99-00 had to wait until 03 Apr for my first snow

Edited January 9, 2014 by IrememberAtlantic252

[chionomaniac]

Jokingly, I am tempted to say that the 18Z is a lot better if you prefer your rain slightly colder- but I wont.....

[Argyle1980]

Hi .

Just picking up on something here ....

Pv seems to be well and truly on the move over the next 3 weeks.

Could this be indicating a change in our direction of weather for February .

Info from the CFS and FI of GFS.

At times it looks like it's flooding south from Greenland and departs canada altogether !

Still a new kid here so go easy please .

[weather_it_will]

It's back to lots of rain again next week.

 

Any signs of winter just gets pushed back further.

[Average Joe]

Someone on the MAD thread suggested one of the models is hinting at "uninteresting" weather with lots of cloud, winds from the east, but dry. I'll snap their hand off if that's true, still drying out at the moment so dry for a month would be wonderful!!!! 

[mezzacyclone]

Any morning gloom following last nights inevitable false "18z pub run dream" ?

Yesterdays downgrades were spot on imo, given the numerous factors, but we were lead down the path good style wednesday!

I'll believe JH and his 500's over a series of the big 4's plots anyday!

[Liam J]

Glad I didn't start telling my friends and family it's going to turn much colder with snow, I've learned that lesson! lol.... I'll wait until the models show decent wintry charts  48-72hrs out