Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[stratty]

..........it may be a saggy sausage........but has deffo potential!  

[Frosty.]

Sausage Alert!

 

ECH101-240.GIF

winter is coming..wake up dammit,, 

Edited January 1, 2014 by Frosty.

[lassie23]

Still looking for winter in the models I wonder if madden has updated his website?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

So ECMWF finally moves towards GFS as expected, always wonder why ECM model is always playing catch up to GFS,

 

tend to take no notice of ecm model,

[Weather-history]

If I were to say this looked like a typical m@dern winter scenario, do you think Ian Brown would press the like button to this?

I notice that he seems to have develop the Craig Evans syndrome, (just joking Craig )of pressing the like button to posts in the model thread even though he hasn't posted anything for about three weeks.

Edited January 2, 2014 by Weather-history

[Gord]

Lots iof optimism in the model thread....then I read Gibby's summary which is the polar opposite to what some other posts are saying. I like the way Gibby tells it like it is and in an objective manner. However, I have to admit I'm left a bit confused this morning. I'm not having a go at any poster as they have all given good reasons for their thoughts, which in a way makes it more difficult. Best thing is probably leave it for another week (again!) then see where we're at.

Liam Dutton keeps tweeting about a possible change to cold mid month. Maybe I'll just use that for a bit!

Edited January 2, 2014 by Gord

[simshady]

Lots iof optimism in the model thread....then I read Gibby's summary which is the polar opposite to what some other posts are saying. I like the way Gibby tells it like it is and in an objective manner. However, I have to admit I'm left a bit confused this morning. I'm not having a go at any poster as they have all given good reasons for their thoughts, which in a way makes it more difficult. Best thing is probably leave it for another week (again!) then see where we're at.Liam Dutton keeps tweeting about a possible change to cold mid month. Maybe I'll just use that for a bit!

Best to really take a lot of the posts in the model thread with a little  pinch of salt....a few of the posters know what they're on about and have no bias but some do and it's sometimes hard to choose who to believe....stick with the professionals then you can't really go wrong.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Lots iof optimism in the model thread....then I read Gibby's summary which is the polar opposite to what some other posts are saying. I like the way Gibby tells it like it is and in an objective manner. However, I have to admit I'm left a bit confused this morning. I'm not having a go at any poster as they have all given good reasons for their thoughts, which in a way makes it more difficult. Best thing is probably leave it for another week (again!) then see where we're at.Liam Dutton keeps tweeting about a possible change to cold mid month. Maybe I'll just use that for a bit!

 

Gibby i never read, not even skim through, if it was -25C, -25 uppers, raging easterly, he would still say wintry showers, snow on northern hills, rain on coasts, good on Liam, but I am thinking possible cold very end Jan

[Hotspur62]

Looking for just 1 cold spell this winter has been painful.32 days into winter and not 1 real cold spell yet(certainly from Midlands Southwards).With all models for next 7 days pretty much in agreement that there is no cold weather imminent this winter is like the ones we had to suffer(from a coldies pov) in the mid 90s to early 00s.However,with 2 months of winter left still plenty of time for things to change. Just need ruddy PV to do one to a favourable position  and want the SW to come into play to benefit UK in second half of Jan onwards. Fed up with all this bloody rain and wind. That's it, rant over

[Bobby]

If wonder if there exists somewhere in a parallel universe an anti-MOD thread, where in winter talk is dominated by desperate hunting for any hint of Bartletts, wind, mild, and rain at +384, and anyone who suggests cold or snow is likely are looked as lepers, trolls and other awful things.

[Tony27]

more of the same old rubbish in the models after a quick check just now, if it stays zonal till mid march and then we suddenly get northerlies and easterlies galore when its pointless and annoying i'll scream, if it stays mild all winter then we get a warm spring and summer then i can live with that, i detest snow in spring unless we get -15 uppers and a channel low that actually made it this far north and not stay in jersey like last march, it was horrible here last march too cold but no snow

Edited January 2, 2014 by Tony27

[I remember Atlantic 252]

If wonder if there exists somewhere in a parallel universe an anti-MOD thread, where in winter talk is dominated by desperate hunting for any hint of Bartletts, wind, mild, and rain at +384, and anyone who suggests cold or snow is likely are looked as lepers, trolls and other awful things.

 

Whats exciting about that! that setup is guaranteed in Dec and Jan

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Even my other half who hates snow said to me earlier "whens the cold and snow coming im sick of this wind and rain" i'm slowly converting her to my way of thinking even she likes those cold sunny ice days now hehe

[DAVID SNOW]

Even my other half who hates snow said to me earlier "whens the cold and snow coming im sick of this wind and rain" i'm slowly converting her to my way of thinking even she likes those cold sunny ice days now hehe

 

May the force be with you  but beware the dark side is strong

[snowblizzard]

it's really depressing to see Met Office (Ian F) saying this pattern (Westerly Flow - Wet & Windy type) is now likely to continue right through to the end of Jan and possibly into early Feb!!

It will eventually break, so we'll either have a very cold, dry Spring or perhaps an exceptionally mild one?

Whatever, I think the odds of it being a snowless winter in the South of England have now shortened significantly!

[KTtom]

Personally, and I know this won't go down well, but I think there are far too many people on the model thread obsessed with every word IF types and then exaggerating x 10!

[cheese]

I am getting pretty sick of seeing low pressure near our shores. I wish we could have a repeat of February 2008 with sunny high pressure + cold, frosty nights. Everywhere is waterlogged. Winter rain is crap.

Edited January 3, 2014 by cheese

[snowblizzard]

I'm not obsessed with what Ian Ferguson says, but he's technically in the know.

 

There are some very clued-up people at the Met Office!

 

But, they do get it wrong, quite often!

Edited January 3, 2014 by snowblizzard

[R.P. McMurphy]

I'm not obsessed with what Ian Ferguson says, but he's technically in the know.

 

There are some very clued-up people at the Met Office!

 

But, they do get it wrong, quite often!

 

This is true. Too many times have I seen posts from Ian F stating Cold, then Mild, then Average, then Cold, then Mild... Don't get me wrong, he obviously know's what he's talking about, but whether MOGREPS does is another question.

[UV-RAY]

This is true. Too many times have I seen posts from Ian F stating Cold, then Mild, then Average, then Cold, then Mild... Don't get me wrong, he obviously know's what he's talking about, but whether MOGREPS does is another question.

Indeed, and why I still think the ECM32 are only fit for the trash can. 

[welshwizard]

Bring on summer now, this rain and wind are driving me mad ha ha, and it sounds as if we getting this type of weather for quite a while yet so I would rather summer role in and be very dry and sunny.

[MP-R]

As likely as it is unlikely, GFS 00Z FI is what keeps me going through arduous spells of weather such as the current one. Cold prospects developing quickly around the same time that the first widespread heavy snow happened last year (January 18th). 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

people are looking for cold too soon, no cold will be showing in FI yet, southern areas very rare to see snow before last week of Jan, northern members i suppose normally have had snow by now

 

still hopeful of winter starting around 4 weeks from now, south, maybe earlier north, Feb snowiest month, mar 2nd snowiest month of year

[I remember Atlantic 252]

See the useless ECM is at its fantasy 12Z's again, GFS all the way folks, as IB knows, the good thing though GFS is showing a mostly dry week next week, although nothing particularly cold

[MP-R]

people are looking for cold too soon, no cold will be showing in FI yet, southern areas very rare to see snow before last week of Jan, northern members i suppose normally have had snow by now

 

still hopeful of winter starting around 4 weeks from now, south, maybe earlier north, Feb snowiest month, mar 2nd snowiest month of year

 

Not sure where you got that from. I can count the winters in my lifetime that haven't had snow before the end of January on one hand.