Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Machu Picchu]

To be fair I reckon with the right set up anywhere in the UK can have "impressive" snow even in Cornwall. But with your height you would do well in the marginal situations too, probably places below 200m would have rain.

I agree Gaz, very true, just a shame the UK as a whole doesn't get the favoured set-ups more frequently. I suppose my impressive could be another mans average or mediocre, i spent the first 26yrs 

of my life in Lincoln which is not the greatest location for snow and seems to have a 6" snow cap in place (although Dec 2010 was epic, better than here) Then i spent 5yrs on the south coast moving

between Brighton and Eastbourne, i saw a few snow showers and a slight covering once so its a different world up here.

On a few occasions i've left Barnsley/Sheffield in the rain for it to turn to snow a couple miles from home and have lying snow when i get here so 100m or so can really make a difference like you say.

Theres places within a few miles of here that tend to do much better, especially over the Woodhead way and more exposed areas so location plays a big part and works the same way i suppose

as it can be raining here but snowing a couple of miles away. Its not uncommon to see cars drive through the village covered in snow when its raining/sleeting here.

I wouldn't mind moving to the Dales or the Moors though.

Edited December 23, 2013 by Machu Picchu

[Machu Picchu]

Theres a lurker in the shadows of the Mod thread liking any post containing zonal, mild, winters over type curse words.

10 points to anyone who can guess who it is.

 

Its chilly out there so keep your Extra Large Teapot full and a very Merry Christmas Pudding to you all.

Edited December 24, 2013 by Machu Picchu

[Gord]

Reading comments about how the zonal pattern is locked in, first half of January is a write off for cold. Maybe the whole of January...or even the whole winter! No blocking appearing at all etc etc

Feels very December 2012 in here at the moment. Of course, January 2013 was a disaster wasn't it? Um...

Edited December 24, 2013 by Gord

[UV-RAY]

Reading comments about how the zonal pattern is locked in, first half of January is a write off for cold. Maybe the whole of January...or even the whole winter! No blocking appearing at all etc etcFeels very December 2012 in here at the moment. Of course, January 2013 was a disaster wasn't it? Um...

Lo, it was here but I agree far too many always write off cold when the charts are showing zonal.

[Gord]

Lo, it was here but I agree far too many always write off cold when the charts are showing zonal.

Oops, sorry, have to remember that you guys in the north west have had rotten luck in recent years. Hopefully this winter will be different for you,

[UV-RAY]

Oops, sorry, have to remember that you guys in the north west have had rotten luck in recent years. Hopefully this winter will be different for you,

The South of the region has not done too badly as CC will testify, but for those of us North of Manchester it's been pretty snowless for the last two winters.

[Bradowl]

I've a feeling some parts of UK could have a Snow free winter.

[Ravendane]

Oh dear I have to say I have never known such a wet and muddy time since moving to the Chilterns,,,,I've fallen badly five times in the field over the past weeks getting my boots stuck in deep mud.... And no one to take a video clip...at least I could have earned some money selling to You've Been Framed.  When I lived for many years in Watford, I got to be a tad envious of this area.... Typical forecast... ' Rain everywhere , turning to snow over the Chilterns.'  I think I have cursed the area, moving here...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

better FI on the GFS, probably a bit progressive mind you, not expecting cold until mid Jan, just hope ECMWF shows signs of change also

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

A lovely sunny and frosty start to Christmas Day here in Hinckley, Leicestershire. Not quite white but in the words of Frosty I will bank that on what we have had the last few days.

Merry Christmas all NW members!

[Gord]

At what point last year did we start to see the light at the end of the tunnel in the models? It was just after new year wasn't it?

Edited December 26, 2013 by Gord

[CongletonHeat]

At what point last year did we start to see the light at the end of the tunnel in the models? It was just after new year wasn't it?

May.

[Gord]

May.

 

Like it!

 

Y'know what I mean though!

[CongletonHeat]

Like it!

 

Y'know what I mean though!

 

Oh you mean for cold lol, well the first 2 weeks of Jan were mild with hp to the south so would guess about the 10th onwards and pretty much for 3 months after.

[Gord]

Oh you mean for cold lol, well the first 2 weeks of Jan were mild with hp to the south so would guess about the 10th onwards and pretty much for 3 months after.

 

It appeared in the models much earlier though. I'm sure there was a sense of optimism in here by the end of the first week of January.

 

As for May...looking forward to Spring and Summer as always...but always that itch to scratch with winter first!

 

(Weather in Spring is what I think our climate excels at...an amazing and varied season...lots of drama, but I'll come back to you on that one around mid-March!)

[Milhouse]

Meteoceil has archive model runs going back a few years so you can see when the ECM, GFS etc started hinting at colder weather last January.

Check out the difference between the ECM 0z and 12z on the 6th January.

Edited December 26, 2013 by Milhouse

[Machu Picchu]

At what point last year did we start to see the light at the end of the tunnel in the models? It was just after new year wasn't it?

Last year i came home on the 4th Jan from our annual New Years week in Prague and the first thing i did was check the mod thread to find that the outlook was no

different to when i left regarding cold. Last New Year was the first i've spent in Prague without deep cold or snow, it was overcast with temps between -1 and 5C and

this year is going to be pretty much the same.

I think we were well into the 2nd week of Jan before signs of cold started showing and i remember the mood in the mod thread being similar to now with many feeling

anxious at being half way into winter without any sign of seasonal weather. Still plenty of time left yet with the best 2 months for proper winter weather ahead of us.

[Gord]

Last year i came home on the 4th Jan from our annual New Years week in Prague and the first thing i did was check the mod thread to find that the outlook was no

different to when i left regarding cold. Last New Year was the first i've spent in Prague without deep cold or snow, it was overcast with temps between -1 and 5C and

this year is going to be pretty much the same.

I think we were well into the 2nd week of Jan before signs of cold started showing and i remember the mood in the mod thread being similar to now with many feeling

anxious at being half way into winter without any sign of seasonal weather. Still plenty of time left yet with the best 2 months for proper winter weather ahead of us.

 

Indeed, and I've just followed Milhouse's suggestion of looking through the archives (particularly that example of 6th Jan). Very interesting and certainly helps to keep chins up!

Edited December 26, 2013 by Gord

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECMWF crazy run, unlikely to come off, I am with GFS here as always, too early in season yet for highs to dominate to our NE,

[Machu Picchu]

Indeed, and I've just followed Milhouse's suggestion of looking through the archives (particularly that example of 6th Jan). Very interesting and certainly helps to keep chins up!

That sounds about right then for 1st signs around the 6th, i remember being back at work the 2nd week in Jan and confidence grew quickly, then we

had the 1st taste of a few inches of snow on the 19th and a big dumping on the 21st and a spell of about 10days with frequent snow showers.

I recall the turnaround being sudden, it was a quick change from nothing like now to a good cold spell with nice snow amounts. I remember METO's 16-30 day outlook

for the time stating their usual carefully worded play it safe 'uncertainty for the period, with the trend for temps to be around or slightly below average'

[Gord]

I've just spotted February being written off on the forums. Just need to find someone doing the same for March and I'll have a bingo!

Seriously though, some people are providing some very good discussions, and I don't mean just the people looking for cold. But I still stand by the one week at a time approach. However, a genuine well done to those who put their necks on the line earlier in December saying that the zonal pattern will stick until the end of the month. I think they're brave doing the same for January but we'll see. I know I'm not brave enough to predict more than a week ahead let alone a whole month.

Edited December 27, 2013 by Gord

[Machu Picchu]

I've just spotted February being written off on the forums. Just need to find someone doing the same for March and I'll have a bingo!Seriously though, some people are providing some very good discussions, and I don't mean just the people looking for cold. But I still stand by the one week at a time approach. However, a genuine well done to those who put their necks on the line earlier in December saying that the zonal pattern will stick until the end of the month. I think they're brave doing the same for January but we'll see. I know I'm not brave enough to predict more than a week ahead let alone a whole month.

Yep, especially when we've seen in previous winters how quickly the signal can change. The thing that worries me at the moment is the

lack of cold across most of Europe, the UK has been recording lower temps than much of the continent. I'll be happier when widespread cold arrives

in Europe and we'll see what happens from there, its not just our little island thats missing out.

We're still in December, theres plenty of time left yet and like you say, its a brave man who can write off the next 3months.

[CongletonHeat]

I really wish we could write off the whole winter as having no really cold spell but it isn't going to happen, we will get some cold and snow at some point, just the same as we get a bit of high pressure and sun some time in summer, it is just that some peoples expectations on here are plain ridiculous.

[Summer Sun]

I really wish we could write off the whole winter as having no really cold spell but it isn't going to happen, we will get some cold and snow at some point, just the same as we get a bit of high pressure and sun some time in summer, it is just that some peoples expectations on here are plain ridiculous.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again the cold snowy spells in winter 09 / 10 and 10 / 11 (more so late November and December) have sent some people's expectations sky high

[Gord]

I remembering entering summer 2004 convinced that we were now in a new regieme of summer weather based on the previous years effort...the headlines thought so too. Remember all the 100F will soon become the norm? In reality only 2006 and 2013 have come close...and 2013 was still way off.

 

Happens all of the time...expectations always based on last time around...or last few times around. It's just not those looking for cold who fall into this trap though!

 

There will be snow at some point this winter...poor winters such as 07/08 and 11/12 managed to provide some brief very snowy spells....08 left it a bit late though!

Edited December 27, 2013 by Gord