Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[snow freak]

have to agree that wind and rain is pretty normal for the UK (all year round) and i really can't get that excited about it.  Snow and cold on the other, is a rarity and much more to get excited about.  Yes this current unpredicatable weather is better than a bartlett set up....but only just.  Our seasons tend to be much the same throughout the year really.  Wish we had a more continental set up when you could be almost guaranteed differences in seasons.

[Tony27]

perhaps if snow was normal in the UK all year round and wind and rain wasn't we would be getting excited about rain in winter and would say snow is bog standard and boring

[Barry12]

Boring? Hmmm.... Re EC32, actually it's offered a very consistent & coherent story through past 5 runs. The nuance has been degree to which cyclonicity wanes to N and positioning of HP to S. Otherwise it's painted very similar outcomes. Arguably, it if WERE showing a raging easterly, I'd wager some would suddenly be backing it to the hilt. But it doesn't, and the point of this thread, surely, is to be objective given the output at our disposal.

 

I can understand why a professional weather forecaster can find this set up interesting, due to the unpredictability of it all and the challenge of getting the forecast right, rather than a predictable set up such as a Bartlett high, where all you have to predict like other posters have said is the layer of clouds. Nevertheless, all this setup will most likely bring is heavy rain and some strong gales, and due to the fact this is very common in the UK, I just can't find it interesting. I saw someone on here say that heavy rain on there birthday was a treat, I just don't get it! If snow was just as common as rain and wind in the UK, I probably wouldn't be that interested in it either, but it's not that common which is why I find it interesting. The accuracy of the EC32 I'm sure is far better than say the CFS, but there comes a point where no matter how good the model is, it's going to struggle when forecasting up to 4 weeks out. So all I'm saying is not to take it too seriously, (other posters on here, not you! ). If it was showing a raging Easterly, I admit I'd probably take more notice of it, but I still remember the failed Easterly of last year, so I certainly wouldn't be backing it unless it was showing at T+72 hours or less.

Edited December 20, 2013 by Barry95

[cheese]

perhaps if snow was normal in the UK all year round and wind and rain wasn't we would be getting excited about rain in winter and would say snow is bog standard and boring

This is a valid point. People in Sweden and Canada don't think snow is a novelty or get excited by it. They do, however, drive like idiots regardless, during the first snowfall, because many people do not switch to winter tires immediately.

[stainesbloke]

Don't really 'get' all the despondency on here. Ok, there are no deeply cold/snowy charts on offer....YET. However the weather will not be quiet for the foreseeable and there could be one or two surprises. Most of us love snow on here but it really isn't a regular UK winter weather type in December. Later in Jan would be more typical and, personally, much more preferable.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This is a normal December folks really, early Jan is autumn really as well, very rarely is early Jan cold or high pressure dominated

 

been lucky here, has felt like ive not had much rain, will expect to pay for that with washouts in early Jan, really the peak of the autumnal season, mid Jan through to mid April is the time for settled weather, frost and snow

[Mapantz]

I remember reading somewhere that what the charts were projecting wasn't particularly mild, well, if you did say that and you're reading this, I've managed two weeks of between 11 and 13C, not to mention the mild nights.

Just needed to get that off of my chest. :lol:

[Country Boy]

So one flake of snow in Glasgow at 2/1 with the bookies is looking good, Any one up for it

[hec1]

well if we can't have snow I want storm force winds

[Country Boy]

well if we can't have snow I want storm force winds

hecHec1. With cold air in your neck of the woods on Christmas Day, it's a cracking bet.I live on the east coast and we have no chance, so My money is on !!!

[AderynCoch]

This is a normal December folks really, early Jan is autumn really as well, very rarely is early Jan cold or high pressure dominated

 

been lucky here, has felt like ive not had much rain, will expect to pay for that with washouts in early Jan, really the peak of the autumnal season, mid Jan through to mid April is the time for settled weather, frost and snow

Early January the peak of the autumn? Have we changed calendars or something?

[Evening thunder]

But would you say it was exciting if it was summer that saw all those bar the frost and snow that is. For me seeing gales and rain is just bog standard UK weather and something we endure rather than enjoy, I still like storms but not one after another.

 

Yes - I would find interest in them as in any time of year. Although my tolerance of them may be a bit lower (except any thunderstorms) and I would be a bit frustrated at the lack of summery weather and warmth if it was through the set up you said in your previous post. I like some summery weather in summer.

 

However it's not summer, and in Autumn/Winter it is meant (as in it's normal) to be like this at times (although you could argue it's meant to be unsettled at times in summer too, thankfully for me as I'm not sure I'd like a Mediterranean drought summer).  I do like cold and snow in winter but that's very unlikely to happen all the way through, and I also like these changeable unsettled spells so would rather this than boring stuff in between.

 

Mind you these unsettled spells tend to provide more interest for me at home in Devon than at my uni location and presumably other central/eastern parts, so i'd probably be less interested in them there (though still prefer them to cloudy highs or Bartlett type SW flows, partly due to more sunshine).

 

I guess I'm more a 'weather enthusiast' type rather than just 'snow enthusiast' which seem to be many people on here now, more like the general public not that interested except for snow. This forum seems to have drifted that way in recent years not that anyone says that's a bad thing. Though not sure why a few seem to make a point of saying they 'cant understand' others finding different weather types interesting as if they shouldn't or if there's something odd about them doing so.. Maybe I should take my interest in other weather to a different forum.

 

Anyway this is more than just wind and rain for me at least. Various other phenomena interspersed with clear skies in fresh PM air, with more variability thrown in than most other set ups would produce. Of course if it was just constant wind and rain every day with no sun I would tire of it.

 

This somehow turned out to be quite a long post..

Edited December 20, 2013 by Evening thunder

[Richard2901]

This is a normal December folks really, early Jan is autumn really as well, very rarely is early Jan cold or high pressure dominated

 

been lucky here, has felt like ive not had much rain, will expect to pay for that with washouts in early Jan, really the peak of the autumnal season, mid Jan through to mid April is the time for settled weather, frost and snow

 

Utter rubbish. If this is a normal December why is my mean minimum running 3C above average - the same as December 2010 was below average. Why do I keep seeing milder temps during the night than what the average day temps are at this time of year? Why I have I not even seen a temp below 1.5C for a fortnight? Why is it constantly windy?

 

December is a winter month not autumn. A month where we should be seeing regular frost and normally at least some snow lying at some point. 

 

This hideous month is one of the most abnormal December's there's been. Tedious, monotonous and unseasonable in the extreme. It's got no redeeming features for me. Just a total nightmare 

[TonyH]

By stating that early January is Autumn reveals just how ridiculous a statement it is let alone calling this an average December!

Edited December 21, 2013 by TonyH

[Machu Picchu]

By stating that early January is Autumn reveals just how ridiculous a statement it is let alone calling this an average December!

I think he meant autumnal (i would hope he did anyway ) I never expect anything out of December, IMO it tends to be an uninspiring start to winter (from a cold

lovers perspective) A mixed month with a bit of allsorts, chilly, mild, some frosts, sunny spells, foggy, windy, rainy, i keep hearing that this December is mild but my heating

keeps going on and also my hat and gloves as its chilly in the wind and feels much colder than what the thermometer tells me.

Looking back to growing up in Lincoln in the 80's, the sun blazing through the window on Xmas day reflecting off the telly and eating Xmas dinner in a t shirt

feeling too hot. Snow usually came between the end of Jan to mid March but not guranteed, i remember some snowless winters and also some epic cold spells with snow

on the ground for weeks which feels like an eternity as a kid. Lincolns not the greatest place for snow though, especially compared to my current location.

The last few years have given us epic early and late events (Dec 2010 and March 2013) Were they one offs or the new norm? For me, as always once we get into the second week

of Jan i'll start expecting some proper cold winter weather and if we hit Feb without any sign of it i'll start getting anxious. (memories of 2011/2012 are still raw)

Whatever the stats show for this December, to me its been nothing out of the ordinary and has produced nothing that i wouldn't expect from the first month of winter whereas Dec 2010

was something i've not experienced before (or since) so could it be classed as a freak event?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

If this isn't autumn,then I don't know what is? everyone knows Dec is the most autumnal month of the year

[Machu Picchu]

If this isn't autumn,then I don't know what is? everyone knows Dec is the most autumnal month of the year

Cant really argue with that bud, i've lived through 39 Decembers and from the ones i remember they usually feel like autumn. Theres the months that crossover like March

for example which is a mix of winter and spring or winter or spring orientated but the Decembers i've experienced have mostly been autumnal, i wish they were more winter like 

then we would stand a chance of snowfall and accumilations at Xmas but we all know that is as rare as rocking horse poop in the UK.

Can anyone say that Decembers feel like winter? Everyone obviously knows that December is placed in the winter box but my idea of winter isn't wind, rain and mild damp muck and

thats usually what we get in some form or other. I would class March as more of a winter month over December.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Cant really argue with that bud, i've lived through 39 Decembers and from the ones i remember they usually feel like autumn. Theres the months that crossover like March

for example which is a mix of winter and spring or winter or spring orientated but the Decembers i've experienced have mostly been autumnal, i wish they were more winter like 

then we would stand a chance of snowfall and accumilations at Xmas but we all know that is as rare as rocking horse poop in the UK.

Can anyone say that Decembers feel like winter? Everyone obviously knows that December is placed in the winter box but my idea of winter isn't wind, rain and mild damp muck and

thats usually what we get in some form or other. I would class March as more of a winter month over December.

 

Agree with all that, but surprised even Dec isn't more wintry for your location

[Machu Picchu]

Agree with all that, but surprised even Dec isn't more wintry for your location

This is my 10th winter in Penistone and i can honestly say that i've seen more snow showers in November and even October than i've seen in December.

Temps tend to be a degree or two lower than Sheffield, Barnsley etc but no real what i would call winter weather, but when it does come it can be impressive,

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Anyway where is Ian Brown? maybe things looking better as he is not posting 'zonal all the way' every 5 minutes

[Machu Picchu]

Maybe IB melted in the furnace like zonal flow, also Steve Murr posting 2 days on the bounce is a good sign.

[Hotspur62]

Like MP states having SM quoting on a more regular basis over last couple days is an encouraging sign. Still got to get through some very unsettled weather over next week but the guys who know their stuff on MOD forum seem to be getting quietly confident that there may be an impending change that would have the "coldies" getting more interested shall we say!TBF this December has just been slightly above average down here in SE by day,it has been the night temps that have been well above average for Dec with only a couple of decent frosts so far!!Lets hope that changes by January!Come on the Cold!!

[UV-RAY]

Maybe IB melted in the furnace like zonal flow, also Steve Murr posting 2 days on the bounce is a good sign.

Rumour has it he's writing another book, this time on modern zonality. Could be a best seller, unlike errr! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Whats modern zonality Ian? perhaps wetter than 80's and earlier zonal flows?

[Gaz1985]

This is my 10th winter in Penistone and i can honestly say that i've seen more snow showers in November and even October than i've seen in December.

Temps tend to be a degree or two lower than Sheffield, Barnsley etc but no real what i would call winter weather, but when it does come it can be impressive,

 

To be fair I reckon with the right set up anywhere in the UK can have "impressive" snow even in Cornwall. But with your height you would do well in the marginal situations too, probably places below 200m would have rain.

Edited December 22, 2013 by Gaz1985