Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Jax]

just enjoy the lower heating bills for now lol

All for that, last year crippled me with the long drawn out cold.

[pip22]

If we don't get snow or cold next week we could always watch snow falling at the webcams in America or something. Its better than waiting for it.

[cheese]

I suppose a trip abroad is our only solution.. I have a few places in mind..

 

 

http://www.webbkameror.se/webbkameror/gondolen/webkamera_eriks_640_4.php

Edited December 6, 2013 by cheese

[pip22]

Heres the good one:

 

http://www.bt.no/kamera/

 

Enjoy lamp post watching!!

 

Going to be snow showers over there.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/3161732 Forecast for Bergen

Edited December 6, 2013 by pip22

[SnowObsessor90]

Our biggest enemy right now just as it has been in many past Winters is that purple monstrosity known as the Polar Vortex, hopefully something  finally manages to put a stop it in it's tracks come Jan, I'm not sure whether I'd want that to be another SSW event though, the last time we had one of those back in early 2012 it ended up screwing us over with February turning out to mild on the whole, that said I do think I recall Chio saying that he doesn't expect one of those this year.

Edited December 6, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not the worst 12Z GFS run, unusually for Dec, its a dry run, except for friday 13th, cannot expect cold yet, so I look for dry weather on models, still do expect downgrades models to start trending the fronts eastwards

 

Mid Jan to Mid Apr, will start to look for cold

[Tony27]

Not the worst 12Z GFS run, unusually for Dec, its a dry run, except for friday 13th, cannot expect cold yet, so I look for dry weather on models, still do expect downgrades models to start trending the fronts eastwards

 

Mid Jan to Mid Apr, will start to look for cold

i always thought you said winter was mid nov till mid feb?

[Gaz1985]

Really looking forward to potentially the next couple of weeks, bring on the strong Bartlett pressure  I'm sure it will be a welcome relief to elderly people too.

[rory o gorman]

Some super temperatures in Ireland  and a spring like feel to the air with a subtropical airmass next week

[I remember Atlantic 252]

i always thought you said winter was mid nov till mid feb?

 

Mid Jan to Mid Apr winter,

 

Mid Nov to Mid Jan best for low sun angle, but dosent produce cold setups

[Snowman.]

I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad..

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

To be honest im not fussed about no cold after a walk to the coast today worrying about will it be cold/mild was insignificant after seeing the power of the sea and how small we actually are

[Don]

If this forum was around back then, I wonder what it would have been like on here during some of those mild Decembers in the 80's?  For example December 6th 1985 and 1986?  Those Decembers had CET's of 6.3 and 6.2C and we know that the rest of those Winter's delivered the goods.  I'm not saying the same will happen this Winter necessarily as it could end up a stinker but it shows that whilst things look pretty grim, it's too early to hit the panic button!

Edited December 6, 2013 by Don

[SnowObsessor90]

At this point I'd just be happy if the Jet switched to more of a NW-SE axis so we  can  have the cooler variation of Zonal, that's how desperate things are!

Edited December 6, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM run not too bad, dry week even on fri 13th, still expect the pattern to be shifted east on future runs, meaning England and Wales wet, not Scotland and Ireland as currently shown

[Gaz1985]

If this forum was around back then, I wonder what it would have been like on here during some of those mild Decembers in the 80's?  For example December 6th 1985 and 1986?  Those Decembers had CET's of 6.3 and 6.2C and we know that the rest of those Winter's delivered the goods.  I'm not saying the same will happen this Winter necessarily as it could end up a stinker but it shows that whilst things look pretty grim, it's too early to hit the panic button!

 

Well that is true, last Christmas was green for most of the country? at least it was here, then by January things changed and became rather snowy so a straw to clutch for coldies. 

 

But also during the middle of December 2011 I woke up to a covering of snow one day in what was otherwise a mild month and a very mild Christmas, snow is not looking likely even this time around. Just shows how poor the models are looking at the moment for any cold/snow in the next couple of weeks. Even as a mildie I have enough sense to know the high pressure won't stick around forever.

Edited December 6, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Well that is true, last Christmas was green for most of the country? at least it was here, then by January things changed and became rather snowy so a straw to clutch for coldies.  But also during the middle of December 2011 I woke up to a covering of snow one day in what was otherwise a mild month and a very mild Christmas, snow is not looking likely even this time around. Just shows how poor the models are looking at the moment for any cold/snow in the next couple of weeks. Even as a mildie I have enough sense to know the high pressure won't stick around forever.

Yes i remember last winter all the 'winters over' post look how it turned out in the end

[I remember Atlantic 252]

no winter is over post, has not started yet for low levels in the south, I dont expect anything yet, normally just rain rain, rain

 

tragic runs for Scottish ski resorts? assuming they get snow before mid Jan normally

Edited December 6, 2013 by IrememberAtlantic252

[SnowObsessor90]

If GP was still around we would have been under absolutely no illusions about what this winter had in store for us weeks back but I suppose it was nice dream for a bit whilst the ECM putting out those nice looking charts

[Don]

Yes i remember last winter all the 'winters over' post look how it turned out in the end

 

Indeed.  However, whilst I'm certainly not going to write this Winter off for a while yet, I am getting a little concerned about the patterns that the models are currently showing.  I don't think the outlook has looked this bad for 7 years?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Indeed.  However, whilst I'm certainly not going to write this Winter off for a while yet, I am getting a little concerned about the patterns that the models are currently showing.  I don't think the outlook has looked this bad for 7 years?

 

well last Dec was snowless for me, still hope to see some consistent cold charts appearing in FI around Jan 8th

[nick sussex]

To be blunt the output sucks big time! I should have known this would happen as I was chatting to many of the locals about the fantastic start to the skiing season here. Stunning blue skies now and there was heaps of fresh snow last week, sadly the outputs look bone dry for the next few weeks, the only crumb of comfort is that no warm rain has been forecast.

 

The limpet high now has the cheek not to ridge far enough north so chances for UK coldies to get at least some surface cold have diminished somewhat, there could be some very mild temps on the eastern side of the  Scottish Highlands if that moist sw flow effects the region, towards the se of the UK a better chance of seeing some frost.

 

Overall the output is underwhelming, the ECM has seriously got on my nerves the last week, the so called King only hanging onto his crown because the main verification is upto T 144hrs , its over amplified the upstream pattern and been hopeless past 144hrs, I think its been a big disappointment to see this northerly so downgraded, the actual depth of cold was very unusual for this early in winter. Two days of that would have been great fun for my fellow UK cold and snow fans especially now that any remaining easterly teases have long since departed.

[SnowObsessor90]

Yes i remember last winter all the 'winters over' post look how it turned out in the end

Back then the wheels were already in motion for what was to come later on despite December providing nothing of note, we'll need quite a bit of luck if we are to see similar  from position we're in at the moment.

[JOPRO]

Mild rampers you either love em or hate them depending on the time of year!! LOL

[Gord]

It's been a tough week model watching hasn't it?

 

We've had a strong northerly taken away from us (well down here we have!), we've had little glimpses of promises snatched from us...and today's model runs just polishes the turd rather nicely doesn't it? Of course, our attention has been switched to more serious issues in the weather this week...coastal flooding and sea surges are something that no-one wants to see.

 

So a tough week all in all.

 

However, we are old hands at this now! We have been let down time and time again. We have stared down the barrell of mild gloominess with no let up over and over again. Last Christmas we were all getting a bit peeved with the output. Be patient, as we know, great weather events have evolved from nothing.

 

I like to compare it to expecting something exciting through the post that you can't wait to get your hands on. You excitedly wait for the post...it doesn't come...you have a moan, forget about it and carry on with your day. Next day...you wait excitedly again...it doesn't come...you forget about it and carry on with your day...and so on and so on until it arrives.

 

I look at the weather models...it doesn't excite me...I have a little moan and get on with my day...next day I do the same and so on and so on. (Although at times like this, it can be 3 or 4 days)

 

Something will come up..probably...maybe...