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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

A brand new thread for the new season.

 

This is where to post any moans or to have a ramp about the model runs/charts or more general chat that would stray off topic in the Model Discussion thread.

 

As in all threads please keep content polite and friendly.

 

OK carry on when ready.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

There is too much trust in the mid to longer range modelling, best to just take it one run at at a time, normally something good pops up in FI, cold and snowy weather will come because it's winter, patience grasshopper.

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Author
Posted (edited)

I am wishing the Euro high would build further north towards Scandinavia next week.

Maybe then with some help from a southerly jet we get some cold from the east.

It is frustrating to see the block currently expected to set up too far south.

I hope for some better charts for cold before too long.

Edited by phil nw.
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Gavin Hannah Community Regular

Gavin Hannah

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted

There is too much trust in the mid to longer range modelling, best to just take it one run at at a time, normally something good pops up in FI, cold and snowy weather will come because it's winter, patience grasshopper.

 

I predict a GEM of a GEM 12Z lol.

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Smiler1709 Enthusiast

Smiler1709

Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
Posted

Models not looking to cleaver at the moment but we were in this situation a few weeks ago, where we thought we were trapped in a bad patch but it changed rapidly, this situation can and will change.

Ps just messaged exacta weather on there predictions and lets just say they didn't take well to it, I think I lost them when I described there winter forecast as drivel written by a 5 year old.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Sheeesh, so much negativity in here today.  I know the charts aren't pretty for us coldies to look at, but keep the faith (as Bon Jovi said), good things come to those who wait.  The GEM could be the only model heading in the right direction so before we get hung up on the next two weeks trends, lets wait a few more runs to see which model gives way.

Yeah just 11 weeks of winter to go, i'm sure the models will start showing wintry charts before Feb 28th.

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Found this in the GEM suite..... what am i looking at lol..

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

Lovely! Shame it's in FI though. Posted Image

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snow freak Aficionado

snow freak

Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
Posted

i think i will hibernate until the charts start showing something remotely interesting and wintry.  could be a long wait ...and probably won't happen until late spring when its too late knowing our weather patterns.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Latest from Joe B...

 

"Winter mainly over continent of Europe next 2 weeks, but blocking developing means UK may have widespread white Christmas!

Great ill stock up on grit and strawsPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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pad199207 Enthusiast

pad199207

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
Posted

Latest from Joe B...

 

"Winter mainly over continent of Europe next 2 weeks, but blocking developing means UK may have widespread white Christmas!

Emphasis on the word "may"

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Davey80 Newbie

Davey80

Posted
  • Location: Canary Wharf, Docklands, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heatwave, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Canary Wharf, Docklands, London
Posted

Does Joe B have his own secret model and knows something we don't or just a crystal ball? Lol

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Latest from Joe B...

 

"Winter mainly over continent of Europe next 2 weeks, but blocking developing means UK may have widespread white Christmas!

Thats saved me a tenner ;)

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

 

Latest from Joe B... "Winter mainly over continent of Europe next 2 weeks, but blocking developing means UK may have widespread white Christmas!

 i think thats a couple of days old. typical joe. things have moved a little bit east since he made that tweet.
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

Latest from Joe B... "Winter mainly over continent of Europe next 2 weeks, but blocking developing means UK may have widespread white Christmas!

That tweet was posted on here a day or two back.More upto date data available now.
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Does Joe B have his own secret model and knows something we don't or just a crystal ball? Lol

App he watches"the day after tom"every day!!Anyway as tb said it looks like a case of sitting tight and waiting in the wings till something pops ups in the longer outlook"unless a slack continental feed floats your boat"ete.Dry and settled it is then Posted Image

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Cecil Hogmanay Melchett Community Regular

Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

Posted
Posted

Well what a fantastic exciting first half of winter coming up. Really great ..........

I know its frustrating but try to be patient, who knows what will happen down the line.

Most of the best winters in the 70's and 80's only got going post christmas so things may look very different in a couple of weeks time,im hoping it wont look this poor anyway!!

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

I know its frustrating but try to be patient, who knows what will happen down the line.

Most of the best winters in the 70's and 80's only got going post christmas so things may look very different in a couple of weeks time,im hoping it wont look this poor anyway!!

Good advice there.On another note can you remember the last spell of northerlies in the uk?they seem to be getting as rare as easterlies in the mo.

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SnowObsessor90 Apprentice

SnowObsessor90

Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Well what a fantastic exciting first half of winter coming up. Really great ..........

At least look to be turning Zonal (yet....), that's about only straw to clutch at the moment.

Edited by SnowObsessor90
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

The weather is just stagnant atm and with the pv position and the euroish high its not looking like changing.dry and hopefully bright is the best we can expect imoPosted Image

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