Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Good grief! that looks hideous...

 

 

That is disgusting. As other members have mentioned, if that were to verify, coupled with a Full Waning Moon.... Eeeek.

[fergieweather]

Thanks Ian, It's worth keeping an eye out for now... Albeit FI, but cannot be ignored.

Hmmm... well, it's actually a genesis starting circa T+96 so very much a consideration (even if lower prob) in our here-and-now MR deliberations, rather than this undefined, elasticised 'FI' phraseology (a meaningless term... I never use it)

[gareth73]

Well that would bring life to a stop lol

[fergieweather]

Well that would bring life to a stop lol

Current modified UKMO-GM fields don't buy it (thankfully) but they were just issued & prepared probably prior to 18z GFS, but I'll find out shortly.

[fergieweather]

Ok so UKMO latest analysis based on 12z runs only. However even then, the more developmental EC 12z into Weds is noted. This has all the hallmarks of being a forecast mare, albeit current consensus has strongest winds in NW quadrant (as logic would dictate); but EC offers strong gusts along S coast later through Weds. Clearly, the 18z NCEP variant is another possibility at a more extreme end, but uncannily similar to yesterday's 00z EC DET.

Edited December 13, 2013 by fergieweather

[The Northern Ramper]

The Daily Excess headline is being written as we speak.

[lorenzo]

All that is visible on the output at present is a swathe of Met Office Warnings. Extremely active storm track, tomorrow the evening fax bombs the system to 947mb.  Sunday's system travelling farther north has an even stronger core. 

 

Sat / Sun

 

Out into mid-week as per other charts posted already, a really serious windstorm. Pressure gradient from the south coast to the Grampians spanning some 46-48mb. This from the 900hPa chart, 108mph peak.

 

ECM mean jet profile - UK firmly in the firing line.

 

Explosive model watching, almost like a switch flipped and the Atlantic slammed into full gear, pretty dizzying compared to the meandering euro high of the last week or so.. Fascinating to watch, dreading the hyperbole in the media from the usual suspects, also hate to think this gives any sort of credence to the 'sources' used by some of these papers.

 

 

 

[Mucka]

GFS Op run has been much colder than the ensemble mean in FI all day and the 18z maintains that trend. (NW England)

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=235&y=40&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

And ECM London ensembles, the mean starting to come down at last in FI but obviously no cold signal.

 

Edited December 13, 2013 by Mucka

[lorenzo]

Looking through the ensembles the 18z op something of an outlier, question being will the pub run op be leading the ensemble pack or is something like the mean more realistic.

 

The control run is also up to Christmas craziness here and delivers the PV for Xmas.

 

 

[Bobby]

There's a lot of energy heading our way and predicting exactly where storms will from, depth, track etc going to be hard, high entropy situation I guess, certainly potential for some nasty weather, that jetstream is raging.

 

Just noticed Meteociel have released high-res GFS charts for all the UK now, could just get the southern half before. Awesomeee

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations-hd/3h.htm

 

 

 

18z run seems to be incomplete ATM though.

Edited December 14, 2013 by Bobby

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GFS 18hrs run develops a hideous looking low pressure,  with this type of set up these rapid developments off the main trough are possible. It interestingly makes less of low heights to the ne so perhaps a small shift there to the UKMO.

 

That low looks lovely, not hideous! After so much boring weather here over the last year or so, the thought of something like that makes the prospect of no snow in the immediate outlook seem less of an issue.

Edited December 14, 2013 by CreweCold

[Convective]

That low looks lovely, not hideous! After so much boring weather here over the last year or so, the thought of something like that makes the prospect of no snow in the immediate outlook seem less of an issue.

I see what you're saying. The graphics look stunning and like you say, it would be a nice change in the weather but I'm not sure the effects that low would cause would be as stunning

[Downpour]

Ye Gods. Someone make it go away. Or aim it at the Aussie batting line up. Hopefully neither will be there in the morning.

G'night.

[nick sussex]

That low looks lovely, not hideous! After so much boring weather here over the last year or so, the thought of something like that makes the prospect of no snow in the immediate outlook seem less of an issue.

Each to their own, I've never understood the fascination with storms.Personally I like boring if it means not getting my roof blown off and having electricity! Whatever the phobia is I have one against thunderstorms and storms, I've had two dreadful storms down here since I re-located, the worst 5 days without power, carnage everywhere, the mind numbing boredom of no electricity in the middle of winter. As for thunderstorms that's a strange one, they can look very eerie especially if the lightning happens over the Pyrenees, with those I generally get a strange feeling in my stomach, become very agitated and go all weird or lets say weirder!

 

Anyway enough about my noelectricty phobia! Although its the GFS I wouldn't rule out one of these situations, the ensembles aren't really behind the operational run but the lower resolution might be an issue with them.

 

I'm more interested in seeing whether the UK can avoid an underwhelming mild Xmas, not much support for the UKMO at T144hrs, we'll see if that changes tomorrow or whether it was a one off rogue run from the UKMO.

[Captain Shortwave]

That low looks lovely, not hideous! After so much boring weather here over the last year or so, the thought of something like that makes the prospect of no snow in the immediate outlook seem less of an issue.

Certainly has not been boring everywhere. The worry and stress caused by last weeks storm is one such example and why out of all the extreme weather events the UK occasionally gets. Storms of the windy variety are my pet hate. Oddly the sunny and calm conditions seen for most of the week down here has been pretty nice, could have been colder and crisp but I could not complain really.

[Jax]

Certainly has not been boring everywhere. The worry and stress caused by last weeks storm is one such example and why out of all the extreme weather events the UK occasionally gets. Storms of the windy variety are my pet hate. Oddly the sunny and calm conditions seen for most of the week down here has been pretty nice, could have been colder and crisp but I could not complain really.

wiv u man!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Each to their own, I've never understood the fascination with storms.Personally I like boring if it means not getting my roof blown off and having electricity! Whatever the phobia is I have one against thunderstorms and storms, I've had two dreadful storms down here since I re-located, the worst 5 days without power, carnage everywhere, the mind numbing boredom of no electricity in the middle of winter. As for thunderstorms that's a strange one, they can look very eerie especially if the lightning happens over the Pyrenees, with those I generally get a strange feeling in my stomach, become very agitated and go all weird or lets say weirder!

 

Anyway enough about my noelectricty phobia! Although its the GFS I wouldn't rule out one of these situations, the ensembles aren't really behind the operational run but the lower resolution might be an issue with them.

 

I'm more interested in seeing whether the UK can avoid an underwhelming mild Xmas, not much support for the UKMO at T144hrs, we'll see if that changes tomorrow or whether it was a one off rogue run from the UKMO.

 

I'm an extreme weather lover Nick. The adrenaline when something like that hits is through the roof for me. Some people like fast cars, some people like rollercoasters etc to get their thrills. As you say, each to their own

[nick sussex]

I'm an extreme weather lover Nick. The adrenaline when something like that hits is through the roof for me. Some people like fast cars, some people like rollercoasters etc to get their thrills. As you say, each to their own

You should sign up for a NW trip to the USA and go storm chasing, that should keep you happy! It might be different stormwise for people living in cities, out here in the country you don't need much to see that awful flickering of the lights!

[Cheshire Freeze]

You should sign up for a NW trip to the USA and go storm chasing, that should keep you happy! It might be different stormwise for people living in cities, out here in the country you don't need much to see that awful flickering of the lights!

 

If I could afford it, I would! Not even had a normal holiday in 5+ years let alone a storm chase .

Edited December 14, 2013 by CreweCold

[TSNWK]

00z looks rather blowy middle to back end of next week, although I think it's backed of a little from the extreme solution it offered last night, into FI there are still trends to drop the vortex down over the North Atlantic and towards us. I would have thought that at the very least the northern half of the uk would stand a chance of a white Christmas period.

Re UKMO well it looks different to the gfs at 144 with that Lobe of the vortex making less progress towards scandi, I think that is a good thing, but I'm not really sure if it has maintained the trend it offered last night, I will wait for one of the experts to advise on that.

Edited December 14, 2013 by TSNWK

[That ECM]

00z looks rather blowy middle to back end of next week, although I think it's backed of a little from the extreme solution it offered last night, into FI there are still trends to drop the vortex down over the North Atlantic and towards us. I would have thought that at the very least the northern half of the uk would stand a chance of a white Christmas period.Re UKMO well it looks different to the gfs at 144 with that Lobe of the vortex making less progress towards scandi, I think that is a good thing, but I'm not really sure if it has maintained the trend if offered last night, I will wait for one of the experts to advise on that.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3467/ECM4-120_zfb6.GIFCertainly needs watching. Time for it to change and many, most not on here, will hope it does.

[Great Plum]

Not for the first time, the GFS ensembles show a cooling off of upper air towards and post Christmas...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

The op is largely with the mean - a number of cooler options as well...

[Biggin]

Not for the first time, the GFS ensembles show a cooling off of upper air towards and post Christmas...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.pngThe op is largely with the mean - a number of cooler options as well...

Some nice precip spikes for 25th too there.

[Beaufort12]

ECW Monster storm for Wednesday

[AWD]

ECW Monster storm for Wednesday

I presume you mean the ECM, and it doesn't look that bad at all on Wednesday??